For years, sex ratios at birth kept rising in South Korea despite rapid development. We show that this was not an anomaly: underlying son preference fell with development, but the effect of son ...preference on sex ratios at birth rose until the mid-1990s as a result of improved sex-selection technology. Now South Korea leads Asia with a declining sex ratio at birth. We explore how son preference was affected by development and by public policy. Decomposition analysis indicates that development reduced son preference primarily through triggering normative changes across society-rather than just in individuals whose socioeconomic circumstances had changed. The cultural underpinnings of son preference in preindustrial Korea were unraveled by industrialization and urbanization even as public policies sought to uphold the patriarchal family system. Our results suggest that child sex ratios in China and India may decline before those countries reach South Korean levels of development, since the governments of both countries vigorously promote normative change to reduce son preference.
What insights can studies of son preference in Asia offer European historical demographers? Research on Asia is far easier than on historical Europe, given the scope for in-depth studies of a ...contemporary phenomenon instead of using available historical data. Levels of sex-selection have also been high in Asia, which makes it easier to analyze its correlates. This enables developing hypotheses that might be useful in studies of historical Europe. Studies in Asia indicate that, in rigidly patrilineal societies, son preference forms part of households' strategy for managing their assets and risks. The extent of sex-selection varied enormously over time within a given setting, rising sharply when households faced heightened risk --- such as war, or the unwinding of Communist regimes that offered communal access to resources --- and decreasing as modern state pension systems mature. These household strategies also affect the life-chances of other household members, including marriage restriction to reduce asset fragmentation. Kinship systems shape the rights of different categories of household members and the norms of cooperation between them - including between generations, spouses, and siblings of different genders and birth orders. This paper offers some hypotheses on the implications of variations in patrilineal kinship systems in Europe for the life-chances of different categories of household members. For purposes of constructing hypotheses that can be tested if data permit, the European kinship systems are contrasted in a stylized way, as those based on a 'lifeboat' ethic of jettisoning non-heirs from the household, versus those based on a more 'corporate' ethic in which the household seeks to support all its members. Historical demographers working on Europe have rich fields to explore, given the region's diversity: of kinship systems, of economic opportunities, and of exposure to major risks such as wars, famine, and the establishment and dis-establishment of Communism.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The apparently inexorable rise in the proportion of "missing girls" in much of East and South Asia has attracted much attention among researchers and policymakers. An encouraging trend was suggested ...by the case of South Korea, where child sex ratios (males to females under age 5) were the highest in Asia but peaked in the mid-1990s and normalized thereafter. Using census data, we examine whether similar trends have begun to manifest themselves in the two most populous countries of this region, China and India. The data indicate that child sex ratios are peaking in these countries, and in many subnational regions are beginning to trend toward lower, more normal values. This suggests that, with continuing economic and social development and vigorous public policy efforts to reduce son preference, the "missing girls" phenomenon could eventually disappear in Asia.
The fact that millions of females are "missing" in East Asia and South Asia has been attributed to cultural factors that support strong son preference in these countries. A widely disseminated paper ...by Emily Oster argues that a large part of this phenomenon can be attributed to excessively masculine sex ratios at birth resulting from maternal infection with hepatitis B. If her thesis is true, current policies to address this problem would need to be reframed to include biological factors in addition to cultural factors. The data show, however, that whether or not females "go missing" is determined by the existing sex composition of the family into which they are conceived. Girls with no older sisters have similar chances of survival as boys. However, girls conceived in families that already have a daughter experience steeply higher probabilities of being aborted or of dying in early childhood. This indicates that cultural factors still provide the overwhelming explanation for the "missing" females.
India's cities face key challenges to improving public health outcomes. First, unequally distributed public resources create insanitary conditions, especially in slums - threatening everyone's ...health, as suggested by poor child growth even amongst the wealthiest. Second, devolving services to elected bodies works poorly for highly technical services like public health. Third, services are highly fragmented. This paper examines the differences in the organisation and management of municipal services in Chennai and Delhi, two cities with sharply contrasting health indicators. Chennai mitigates these challenges by retaining professional management of service delivery and actively serving vulnerable populations − while services in Delhi are quite constrained. Management and institutional issues have received inadequate attention in the public health literature on developing countries, and the policy lessons from Chennai have wide relevance.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Son preference has persisted in the face of sweeping economic and social changes in the countries studied here. We attribute this persistence to their similar family systems, which generate strong ...disincentives to raise daughters - whether or not their marriages require dowries - while valuing adult women's contributions to the household. Urbanisation, female education and employment can only slowly change these incentives without more direct efforts by the state and civil society to increase the flexibility of the kinship system such that daughters and sons can be perceived as being more equally valuable. Much can be done to accelerate this process through social movements, legislation and the mass media.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This literature review focuses on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. Developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, but the brunt of the fallout will ...be borne by developing countries in forms such as lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Although carbon emissions per capita have leveled off in developed countries, they are projected to rise rapidly in developing countries because of economic growth and population growth. Unfortunately, the latter will rise most notably in the poorest countries, combining with climate change to slow poverty reduction. These countries have many incentives to lower fertility. Previous studies indicate that in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods and frees resources that can be used to cope with climate change. Moreover, slowing population growth helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit the poorest countries far more than it will benefit developed countries that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change. Natural experiments indicate that family-planning programs are effective and highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles with the complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will benefit from simple programs to lower fertility.
South Korea is the first country to shift from strong son preference to preferring daughters. This paper examines the factors associated with daughter preference, using data from the 2012 Korea ...General Social Survey, a nationally-representative survey of 1,379 people. The outcome variable was derived from the survey question, 'If you were to have one child, which one would you like to have - son, daughter, or no preference?' Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between reported child gender preference and several social and cultural variables. 43 per cent of respondents preferred daughters, 36 per cent preferred sons, and 21 per cent were indifferent. The probability of preferring daughters over sons increased with exposure to Korea's social transformations (younger, more educated, and urban residents); and among those less vested in the traditional patriarchal norms (women, non-Buddhists, and less conservative views on gender roles). Other studies in South Korea find increasing intergenerational support between parents and daughters. This is no longer an agrarian society where aging parents depend financially on sons. Today people can save for retirement and have national health insurance. However, people live longer and need companionship and care which they feel daughters provide more than sons.
Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and ...children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.
Violent conflict, a pervasive feature of the recent global landscape, has lasting impacts on human capital, and these impacts are seldom gender neutral. Death and destruction alter the structure and ...dynamics of households, including their demographic profiles and traditional gender roles. To date, attention to the gender impacts of conflict has focused almost exclusively on sexual and gender-based violence. We show that a far wider set of gender issues must be considered to better document the human consequences of war and to design effective postconflict policies. The emerging empirical evidence is organized using a framework that identifies both the differential impacts of violent conflict on males and females (first-round impacts) and the role of gender inequality in framing adaptive responses to conflict (second-round impacts). War's mortality burden is disproportionately borne by males, whereas women and children constitute a majority of refugees and the displaced. Indirect war impacts on health are more equally distributed between the genders. Conflicts create households headed by widows who can be especially vulnerable to intergenerational poverty. Second-round impacts can provide opportunities for women in work and politics triggered by the absence of men. Households adapt to conflict with changes in marriage and fertility, migration, investments in children's health and schooling, and the distribution of labor between the genders. The impacts of conflict are hetero-geneous and can either increase or decrease preexisting gender inequalities. Describing these gender differential effects is a first step toward developing evidence-based conflict prevention and postconflict policy.
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