Abstract
Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in ...these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21
st
century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.
The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species' capacity to migrate. We estimated Late ...Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth's many small-ranged species.
► Capital turnover reduces water withdrawal (increases consumption) intensity of electricity. ► Establishment of water withdrawal, consumption coefficients for electricity technologies. ► Projection ...of plausible electric-sector water use in fourteen regions over twenty-first century.
Electric power plants account for approximately half the global industrial water withdrawal. Although continued electric-sector expansion is probable, significant variations in water intensity by electricity technology and cooling system type make its effects on water demands uncertain. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change, we establish lower-, median-, and upper-bound estimates for current electric-sector water withdrawals and consumption in 14 geopolitical regions, and compare them with available estimates. We then explore water use for electricity to 2095, focusing on uncertainties in water withdrawal and consumption intensities, power plant cooling system changes, and adoption rates of water-saving technologies. Results reveal a probable decrease in the water withdrawal intensity with capital stock turnover, but a corresponding increase in consumptive use, for which technologies under development may compensate. At a regional scale, water use varies significantly based on the existing capital stock and its evolution over the century.
Asteroseismic constraints on K giants make it possible to infer radii, masses and ages of tens of thousands of field stars. Tests against independent estimates of these properties are however scarce, ...especially in the metal-poor regime. Here, we report the detection of solar-like oscillations in eight stars belonging to the red-giant branch (RGB) and red-horizontal branch (RHB) of the globular cluster M4. The detections were made in photometric observations from the K2 Mission during its Campaign 2. Making use of independent constraints on the distance, we estimate masses of the eight stars by utilizing different combinations of seismic and non-seismic inputs. When introducing a correction to the Δν scaling relation as suggested by stellar models, for RGB stars we find excellent agreement with the expected masses from isochrone fitting, and with a distance modulus derived using independent methods. The offset with respect to independent masses is lower, or comparable with, the uncertainties on the average RGB mass (4–10 per cent, depending on the combination of constraints used). Our results lend confidence to asteroseismic masses in the metal-poor regime. We note that a larger sample will be needed to allow more stringent tests to be made of systematic uncertainties in all the observables (both seismic and non-seismic), and to explore the properties of RHB stars, and of different populations in the cluster.
Results of the commissioning of the first Gemini Multi‐Object Spectrograph (GMOS) are described. GMOS and the Gemini–North telescope act as a complete system to exploit a large 8 m aperture with ...improved image quality. Key GMOS design features such as the on‐instrument wave‐front sensor (OIWFS) and active flexure compensation system maintain very high image quality and stability, allowing precision observations of many targets simultaneously while reducing the need for frequent recalibration and reacquisition of targets. In this paper, example observations in imaging, long‐slit, and multiobject spectroscopic modes are presented and verified by comparison with data from the literature. The expected high throughput of GMOS is confirmed from standard star observations; it peaks at about 60% when imaging in the
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and
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bands, and at 45%–50% in spectroscopic mode at 6300 Å. Deep GMOS photometry in the
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,
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, and
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filters is compared to data from the literature, and the uniformity of this photometry across the GMOS field is verified. The multiobject spectroscopic mode is demonstrated by observations of the galaxy cluster A383. Centering of objects in the multislit mask was achieved to an rms accuracy of 80 mas across the 5
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5 field, and an optimized setup procedure (now in regular use) improves this to better than 50 mas. Stability during these observations was high, as expected: the average shift between object and slit positions was 5.3 mas hr−1, and the wavelength scale drifted by only 0.1 Å hr−1(in a setup with spectral resolution of 6 Å). Finally, the current status of GMOS on Gemini–North is summarized, and future plans are outlined.
Epidural analgesia is considered by many to be the best method of pain relief after major surgery. It is used routinely in many thoracic surgery centres. Although effective, side-effects include ...hypotension, urinary retention, incomplete (or failed) block, and, in rare cases, paraplegia. Paravertebral block (PVB) is an alternative technique that may offer comparable analgesic effectiveness and a better side-effect profile. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of all relevant randomized trials comparing PVB with epidural analgesia in thoracic surgery. Data were abstracted and verified by both authors. Studies were tested for heterogeneity, and meta-analyses were done with random effects or fixed effects models. Weighted mean difference (WMD) was used for numerical outcomes and odds ratio (OR) for dichotomous outcomes, both with 95% CI.
We identified 10 trials that had enrolled 520 thoracic surgery patients. All of the trials were small (n<130) and none were blinded. There was no significant difference between PVB and epidural groups for pain scores at 4–8, 24 or 48 h, WMD 0.37 (95% CI: −0.5, 121), 0.05 (−0.6, 0.7), −0.04 (−0.4, 0.3), respectively. Pulmonary complications occurred less often with PVB, OR 0.36 (0.14, 0.92). Urinary retention, OR 0.23 (0.10, 0.51), nausea and vomiting, OR 0.47 (0.24, 0.53), and hypotension, OR 0.23 (0.11, 0.48), were less common with PVB. Rates of failed block were lower in the PVB group, OR 0.28 (0.2, 0.6). PVB and epidural analgesia provide comparable pain relief after thoracic surgery, but PVB has a better side-effect profile and is associated with a reduction in pulmonary complications. PVB can be recommended for major thoracic surgery.
We present a study of 33 Kepler planet-candidate host stars for which asteroseismic observations have sufficiently high signal-to-noise ratio to allow extraction of individual pulsation frequencies. ...We implement a new Bayesian scheme that is flexible in its input to process individual oscillation frequencies, combinations of them, and average asteroseismic parameters, and derive robust fundamental properties for these targets. Applying this scheme to grids of evolutionary models yields stellar properties with median statistical uncertainties of 1.2 per cent (radius), 1.7 per cent (density), 3.3 per cent (mass), 4.4 per cent (distance), and 14 per cent (age), making this the exoplanet host-star sample with the most precise and uniformly determined fundamental parameters to date. We assess the systematics from changes in the solar abundances and mixing-length parameter, showing that they are smaller than the statistical errors. We also determine the stellar properties with three other fitting algorithms and explore the systematics arising from using different evolution and pulsation codes, resulting in 1 per cent in density and radius, and 2 per cent and 7 per cent in mass and age, respectively. We confirm previous findings of the initial helium abundance being a source of systematics comparable to our statistical uncertainties, and discuss future prospects for constraining this parameter by combining asteroseismology and data from space missions. Finally, we compare our derived properties with those obtained using the global average asteroseismic observables along with effective temperature and metallicity, finding excellent level of agreement. Owing to selection effects, our results show that the majority of the high signal-to-noise ratio asteroseismic Kepler host stars are older than the Sun.
Robust establishment of survival in multiple myeloma (MM) and its relationship to recurrent genetic aberrations is required as outcomes are variable despite apparent similar staging. We assayed copy ...number alterations (CNA) and translocations in 1036 patients from the NCRI Myeloma XI trial and linked these to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. Through a meta-anlysis of these data with data from MRC Myeloma IX trial, totalling 1905 newly diagnosed MM patients (NDMM), we confirm the association of t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), del(17p) and gain(1q21) with poor prognosis with hazard ratios (HRs) for OS of 1.60 (P=4.77 × 10
), 1.74 (P=0.0005), 1.90 (P=0.0089), 2.10 (P=8.86 × 10
) and 1.68 (P=2.18 × 10
), respectively. Patients with 'double-hit' defined by co-occurrence of at least two adverse lesions have an especially poor prognosis with HRs for OS of 2.67 (P=8.13 × 10
) for all patients and 3.19 (P=1.23 × 10
) for intensively treated patients. Using comprehensive CNA and translocation profiling in Myeloma XI we also demonstrate a strong association between t(4;14) and BIRC2/BIRC3 deletion (P=8.7 × 10
), including homozygous deletion. Finally, we define distinct sub-groups of hyperdiploid MM, with either gain(1q21) and CCND2 overexpression (P<0.0001) or gain(11q25) and CCND1 overexpression (P<0.0001). Profiling multiple genetic lesions can identify MM patients likely to relapse early allowing stratification of treatment.
Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified ...individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.
Cool main-sequence, subgiant, and red giant stars all show solar-like oscillations, pulsations that are excited and intrinsically damped by near-surface convection. Many overtones are typically ...excited to observable amplitudes, giving a rich spectrum of detectable modes. These modes provide a wealth of information on fundamental stellar properties. However, the radial velocity (RV) shifts induced by these oscillations can also be problematic when searching for low-mass, long-period planets; this is because their amplitudes are large enough to completely mask such minute planetary signals. Here we show how fine-tuning exposure times to the stellar parameters can help efficiently average out the solar-like, oscillation-induced shifts. To reduce the oscillation signal to the RV precision commensurate with an Earth analog, we find that for cool, low-mass stars (near spectral type K), the necessary exposure times may be as short as ∼4 minutes, while for hotter, higher-mass stars (near spectral type F, or slightly evolved), the required exposure times can be longer than 100 minutes. We provide guideline exposure durations required to suppress the total observed amplitude due to oscillations to a level of 0.1 m s−1, and a level corresponding to the Earth-analog reflex amplitude for the star. Owing to the intrinsic stochastic variability of the oscillations, we recommend in practice choosing short exposure durations at the telescope and then averaging over those exposures later, as guided by our predictions. To summarize, as we enter an era of 0.1 m s−1 instrumental precision, it is critical to tailor our observing strategies to the stellar properties.
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