Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a ...new prognostic system for patients with HCC.
Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups.
The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The prognosis of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is heterogeneous, and survival data were mainly obtained from control arms of randomized studies. Clinical practice data on ...this topic are urgently needed, so as to help plan studies and counsel patients. We assessed the prognosis of 600 untreated patients with HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. Prognosis was evaluated by subdividing patients according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification. We also assessed the main demographic, clinical, and oncological determinants of survival in the subgroup of patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). Advanced (BCLC C: n = 138; 23.0%) and end‐stage HCC (BCLC D; n = 210; 35.0%) represented the majority of patients. Overall median survival was 9 months, and the principal cause of death was tumor progression (n = 279; 46.5%). Patients' median survival progressively and significantly decreased as BCLC stage worsened (BCLC 0: 38 months; BCLC A: 25 months; BCLC B: 10 months; BCLC C: 7 months; BCLC D: 6 months; P < 0.0001). Female gender (hazard ratio HR = 0.55; 95% confidence interval CI = 0.33‐0.90; P = 0.018), ascites (HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.21‐2.71; P = 0.004), and multinodular (>3) HCC (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.21‐2.63; P = 0.003) were independent predictors of survival in patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). Conclusion: BCLC adequately predicts the prognosis of untreated HCC patients. In untreated patients with advanced HCC, female gender, clinical decompensation of cirrhosis, and multinodular tumor are independent prognostic predictors and should be taken into account for patient stratification in future therapeutic studies. (Hepatology 2015;61:184–190)
Background
The role of clinically significant portal hypertension on the prognosis of cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is debated.
Aims
In this ...study, our aim was to assess the role of clinically significant portal hypertension after hepatic resection for HCC in patients with cirrhosis.
Methods
We assessed the prognostic role of the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension (oesophageal/gastric varices/portal hypertensive gastropathy or a platelet count <100 × 109/L associated with splenomegaly) in 152 patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent hepatic resection for HCC at the Italian Liver Cancer centres. Survival rates were assessed in the whole series, in the subgroup of Child‐Pugh score 5 patients with uninodular HCC ≤5 cm, and in Child‐Pugh score 5 patients with uninodular HCC ≤2 cm and normal bilirubin.
Results
Median survival was similar in patients with and without clinically significant portal hypertension (79 vs 77 months, P = 0.686). Child‐Pugh score 5 was the only variable significantly associated with survival by Cox multiple regression (P = 0.007). In Child‐Pugh score 5 patients with single HCC ≤5 cm or in those with single HCC ≤2 cm and normal bilirubin, there was no survival difference between patients with and without clinically significant portal hypertension (median survival: 94 vs 78 months, P = 0.121 and >100 vs 86 months, P = 0.742).
Conclusions
Presence of clinically significant portal hypertension has no influence on survival of patients with well‐compensated cirrhosis undergoing hepatic resection for HCC.
BACKGROUND: Access to Directly Acting Antivirals (DAAs) for Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) treatment in Italy was initially restricted to severe patients. In 2017, AIFA expanded access to all patients, to ...achieve elimination by 2030. AIM: To investigate the impact of different hospitals’ organizational models on elimination timing, treatment capacity and direct costs. METHODS: Most Regional healthcare systems in Italy deploy a Center of Excellence (CoE) organizational model, where patients are referred to a single major hospital in the area, which is the only one that can prescribe and deliver DAAs. The study was conducted at Bergamo’s (Lombardy, Italy) Papa Giovanni XXIII hospital (PG-23), which deploys a Hub&Spoke model: the Hub (PG-23) prescribes and delivers DAAs while Spokes (four smaller hospitals) can only prescribe them. The study compares the two models (CoE vs. H&S). Patient journey and workloads were mapped and quantified through interviews with hospital stakeholders. Cost data were collected through the hospital’s IT system; the sample comprised 2,277 HCV patients, over one year. RESULTS: The study calculated the average cost to treat HCV patients (~ € 1,470 per patient). Key cost drivers are lab tests (60%) and specialist visits (30%). Over one year, H&S can treat 68% more patients than CoE. As deferred patients absorb up to 40% of total costs, the “Optimized” model was designed by streamlining specialists’ visits and involving general practitioners during follow-up. “Optimized” model increases treatment capacity and reduces costs of deferred patients by 72% vs CoE. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrates the importance of organizational models in efficiently achieving 2030 elimination.
Background & Aims Ultrasound surveillance does not detect early stage hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in some patients with cirrhosis, although the reasons for this have not been well studied. We ...assessed the rate at which ultrasound fails to detect early stage HCCs and factors that affect its performance. Methods We collected information on 1170 consecutive patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database who had Child–Pugh A or B cirrhosis and were diagnosed with HCC during semiannual or annual ultrasound surveillance, from January 1987 through December 2008. Etiologies included hepatitis C virus infection (59.3%), alcohol abuse (11.3%), hepatitis B virus infection (9%), a combination of factors (15.6%), and other factors (4.7%). Surveillance was considered to be a failure when patients were diagnosed with HCC at a stage beyond the Milan criteria (1 nodule ≤5 cm or ≤3 nodules each ≤3 cm). Results HCC was found beyond Milan criteria in 34.3% of surveilled patients (32.2% during semi-annual surveillance and 41.3% during annual surveillance; P < .01). Nearly half of surveillance failures were associated with at least one indicator of aggressive HCC (levels of AFP >1000 ng/mL, infiltrating tumors, or vascular invasion and metastases). Semiannual surveillance, female sex, Child–Pugh class A, and α-fetoprotein levels of 200 ng/mL or less were associated independently with successful ultrasound screening for HCC. Conclusions Based on our analysis of surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, the efficacy of ultrasound-based screening is acceptable. Ultrasound was least effective in identifying aggressive HCC, and at surveillance intervals of more than 6 months.
The efficacy of systemic therapy for unresectable advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) has not been proven in patients with Child-Pugh (C-P) B cirrhosis. Nevertheless, in real-world these ...patients are treated both with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and with metronomic capecitabine (MC). This study aimed to compare sorafenib and MC outcomes versus best supportive care (BSC) in C-P B patients.
Between 2008 and 2020, among 774 C-P B patients with aHCC not amenable/responsive to locoregional treatments, 410 underwent sorafenib, 62 MC, and 302 BSC. The propensity score matching method was used to correct the baseline unbalanced prognostic factors.
In the unmatched population, median OS was 9.7 months in patients treated with sorafenib, 8.0 with MC, and 3.9 months with BSC. In sorafenib vs. BSC-matched patients (135 couples), median OS was 7.3 (4.9–9.6) vs. 3.9 (2.6–5.2) months (p<0.001). ECOG-Performance Status, tumor size, macrovascular invasion, AFP, treatment-naive, and sorafenib were independent predictors of survival. In MC vs. BSC-matched patients (40 couples), median OS was 9.0 (0.2–17.8) vs.3.0 (2.2–3.8) months (p<0.001). Median OS did not differ (p = 0.283) in sorafenib vs. MC-matched patients (55 couples).
C-P B patients with aHCC undergoing BSC have poor survival. Both Sorafenib and MC treatment improve their prognosis.
Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients.
To evaluate the accuracy ...of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort.
The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).
Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915).
The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.
Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimens have been associated with renal function worsening in HCV patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 45 ml/min, but further investigations are ...lacking.
To assess renal safety in a large cohort of DAA-treated HCV patients with any chronic kidney disease (CKD).
All HCV patients treated with DAA in Lombardy (December 2014–November 2017) with available kidney function tests during and off-treatment were included.
Among 3264 patients 65% males, 67% cirrhotics, eGFR 88 (9–264) ml/min, CKD stage was 3 in 9.5% and 4/5 in 0.7%. 79% and 73% patients received SOF and RBV, respectively. During DAA, eGFR declined in CKD-1 (p < 0.0001) and CKD-2 (p = 0.0002) patients, with corresponding rates of CKD stage reduction of 25% and 8%. Conversely, eGFR improved in lower CKD stages (p < 0.0001 in CKD-3a, p = 0.0007 in CKD-3b, p = 0.024 in CKD-4/5), with 33–45% rates of CKD improvement. Changes in eGFR and CKD distribution persisted at SVR. Baseline independent predictors of CKD worsening at EOT and SVR were age (p < 0.0001), higher baseline CKD stages (p < 0.0001) and AH (p = 0.010 and p < 0.0001, respectively).
During DAA, eGFR significantly declined in patients with preserved renal function and improved in those with lower CKD stages, without reverting upon drug discontinuation.
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