Several studies have evaluated whether depressed persons have older appearing brains than their nondepressed peers. However, the estimated neuroimaging-derived “brain age gap” has varied from study ...to study, likely driven by differences in training and testing sample (size), age range, and used modality/features. To validate our previously developed ENIGMA brain age model and the identified brain age gap, we aim to replicate the presence and effect size estimate previously found in the largest study in depression to date (N = 2126 controls & N = 2675 cases; +1.08 years SE 0.22, Cohen's d = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.08–0.20), in independent cohorts that were not part of the original study.
A previously trained brain age model (www.photon-ai.com/enigma_brainage) based on 77 FreeSurfer brain regions of interest was used to obtain unbiased brain age predictions in 751 controls and 766 persons with depression (18–75 years) from 13 new cohorts collected from 20 different scanners. Meta-regressions were used to examine potential moderating effects of basic cohort characteristics (e.g., clinical and scan technical) on the brain age gap.
Our ENIGMA MDD brain age model generalized reasonably well to controls from the new cohorts (predicted age vs. age: r = 0.73, R2 = 0.47, MAE = 7.50 years), although the performance varied from cohort to cohort. In these new cohorts, on average, depressed persons showed a significantly higher brain age gap of +1 year (SE 0.35) (Cohen's d = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.05–0.25) compared with controls, highly similar to our previous finding. Significant moderating effects of FreeSurfer version 6.0 (d = 0.41, p = 0.007) and Philips scanner vendor (d = 0.50, p < 0.0001) were found, leading to more positive effect size estimates.
This study further validates our previously developed ENIGMA brain age algorithm. Importantly, we replicated the brain age gap in depression with a comparable effect size. Thus, two large-scale independent mega-analyses across in total 32 cohorts and >3400 patients and >2800 controls worldwide show reliable but subtle effects of brain aging in adult depression. Future studies are needed to identify factors that may further explain the brain age gap variance between cohorts.
•Persons with major depressive disorder show older appearing brains by +1 year compared to nondepressed peers.•The ENIGMA brain age prediction model shows relatively good generalization to current independent cohorts and scanners.•The small pooled effect (Cohen's d = 0.15) may be driven in part by the heterogeneity across scanning sites.•Future work is needed to examine which characteristics may further underlie the individual variation in the brain age gap.
Psychiatric disorders are highly heterogeneous, defined based on symptoms with little connection to potential underlying biological mechanisms. A possible approach to dissect biological heterogeneity ...is to look for biologically meaningful subtypes. A recent study Drysdale et al. (2017) showed promising results along this line by simultaneously using resting state fMRI and clinical data and identified four distinct subtypes of depression with different clinical profiles and abnormal resting state fMRI connectivity. These subtypes were predictive of treatment response to transcranial magnetic stimulation therapy.
Here, we attempted to replicate the procedure followed in the Drysdale et al. study and their findings in a different clinical population and a more heterogeneous sample of 187 participants with depression and anxiety. We aimed to answer the following questions: 1) Using the same procedure, can we find a statistically significant and reliable relationship between brain connectivity and clinical symptoms? 2) Is the observed relationship similar to the one found in the original study? 3) Can we identify distinct and reliable subtypes? 4) Do they have similar clinical profiles as the subtypes identified in the original study?
We followed the original procedure as closely as possible, including a canonical correlation analysis to find a low dimensional representation of clinically relevant resting state fMRI features, followed by hierarchical clustering to identify subtypes. We extended the original procedure using additional statistical tests, to test the statistical significance of the relationship between resting state fMRI and clinical data, and the existence of distinct subtypes. Furthermore, we examined the stability of the whole procedure using resampling.
As in the original study, we found extremely high canonical correlations between functional connectivity and clinical symptoms, and an optimal three-cluster solution. However, neither canonical correlations nor clusters were statistically significant. On the basis of our extensive evaluations of the analysis methodology used and within the limits of comparison of our sample relative to the sample used in Drysdale et al., we argue that the evidence for the existence of the distinct resting state connectivity-based subtypes of depression should be interpreted with caution.
Normative modeling is an emerging and innovative framework for mapping individual differences at the level of a single subject or observation in relation to a reference model. It involves charting ...centiles of variation across a population in terms of mappings between biology and behavior, which can then be used to make statistical inferences at the level of the individual. The fields of computational psychiatry and clinical neuroscience have been slow to transition away from patient versus 'healthy' control analytic approaches, probably owing to a lack of tools designed to properly model biological heterogeneity of mental disorders. Normative modeling provides a solution to address this issue and moves analysis away from case-control comparisons that rely on potentially noisy clinical labels. Here we define a standardized protocol to guide users through, from start to finish, normative modeling analysis using the Predictive Clinical Neuroscience toolkit (PCNtoolkit). We describe the input data selection process, provide intuition behind the various modeling choices and conclude by demonstrating several examples of downstream analyses that the normative model may facilitate, such as stratification of high-risk individuals, subtyping and behavioral predictive modeling. The protocol takes ~1-3 h to complete.
Normative modelling is becoming more popular in neuroimaging due to its ability to make predictions of deviation from a normal trajectory at the level of individual participants. It allows the user ...to model the distribution of several neuroimaging modalities, giving an estimation for the mean and centiles of variation. With the increase in the availability of big data in neuroimaging, there is a need to scale normative modelling to big data sets. However, the scaling of normative models has come with several challenges.
So far, most normative modelling approaches used Gaussian process regression, and although suitable for smaller datasets (up to a few thousand participants) it does not scale well to the large cohorts currently available and being acquired. Furthermore, most neuroimaging modelling methods that are available assume the predictive distribution to be Gaussian in shape. However, deviations from Gaussianity can be frequently found, which may lead to incorrect inferences, particularly in the outer centiles of the distribution. In normative modelling, we use the centiles to give an estimation of the deviation of a particular participant from the ‘normal’ trend. Therefore, especially in normative modelling, the correct estimation of the outer centiles is of utmost importance, which is also where data are sparsest.
Here, we present a novel framework based on Bayesian Linear Regression with likelihood warping that allows us to address these problems, that is, to scale normative modelling elegantly to big data cohorts and to correctly model non-Gaussian predictive distributions. In addition, this method provides also likelihood-based statistics, which are useful for model selection.
To evaluate this framework, we use a range of neuroimaging-derived measures from the UK Biobank study, including image-derived phenotypes (IDPs) and whole-brain voxel-wise measures derived from diffusion tensor imaging. We show good computational scaling and improved accuracy of the warped BLR for certain IDPs and voxels if there was a deviation from normality of these parameters in their residuals.
The present results indicate the advantage of a warped BLR in terms of; computational scalability and the flexibility to incorporate non-linearity and non-Gaussianity of the data, giving a wider range of neuroimaging datasets that can be correctly modelled.
A recent hypothesis postulates the existence of an 'immune-metabolic depression' (IMD) dimension characterized by metabolic dysregulations. Combining data on metabolomics and depressive symptoms, we ...aimed to identify depressions associated with an increased risk of adverse metabolic alterations.
Clustering data were from 1094 individuals with major depressive disorder in the last 6 months and measures of 149 metabolites from a
H-NMR platform and 30 depressive symptoms (IDS-SR30). Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were used to identify main independent metabolite-symptom axes of variance. Then, for the replication, we examined the association of the identified dimensions with metabolites from the same platform and cardiometabolic diseases in an independent population-based cohort (
= 6572).
CCA identified an overall depression dimension and a dimension resembling IMD, in which symptoms such as sleeping too much, increased appetite, and low energy level had higher relative loading. In the independent sample, the overall depression dimension was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk, such as (i.e. per s.d.) HOMA-1B -0.06 (95% CI -0.09 - -0.04), and visceral adipose tissue -0.10 cm
(95% CI -0.14 - -0.07). In contrast, the IMD dimension was associated with well-known cardiometabolic diseases such as higher visceral adipose tissue 0.08 cm
(95% CI 0.04-0.12), HOMA-1B 0.06 (95% CI 0.04-0.09), and lower HDL-cholesterol levels -0.03 mmol/L (95% CI -0.05 - -0.01).
Combining metabolomics and clinical symptoms we identified a replicable depression dimension associated with adverse metabolic alterations, in line with the IMD hypothesis. Patients with IMD may be at higher cardiometabolic risk and may benefit from specific treatment targeting underlying metabolic dysregulations.
The potential of normative modeling to make individualized predictions from neuroimaging data has enabled inferences that go beyond the case-control approach. However, site effects are often ...confounded with variables of interest in a complex manner and can bias estimates of normative models, which has impeded the application of normative models to large multi-site neuroimaging data sets. In this study, we suggest accommodating for these site effects by including them as random effects in a hierarchical Bayesian model. We compared the performance of a linear and a non-linear hierarchical Bayesian model in modeling the effect of age on cortical thickness. We used data of 570 healthy individuals from the ABIDE (autism brain imaging data exchange) data set in our experiments. In addition, we used data from individuals with autism to test whether our models are able to retain clinically useful information while removing site effects. We compared the proposed single stage hierarchical Bayesian method to several harmonization techniques commonly used to deal with additive and multiplicative site effects using a two stage regression, including regressing out site and harmonizing for site with ComBat, both with and without explicitly preserving variance related to age and sex as biological variation of interest. In addition, we made predictions from raw data, in which site has not been accommodated for. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian method showed the best predictive performance according to multiple metrics. Beyond that, the resulting z-scores showed little to no residual site effects, yet still retained clinically useful information. In contrast, performance was particularly poor for the regression model and the ComBat model in which age and sex were not explicitly modeled. In all two stage harmonization models, predictions were poorly scaled, suffering from a loss of more than 90 % of the original variance. Our results show the value of hierarchical Bayesian regression methods for accommodating site variation in neuroimaging data, which provides an alternative to harmonization techniques. While the approach we propose may have broad utility, our approach is particularly well suited to normative modelling where the primary interest is in accurate modelling of inter-subject variation and statistical quantification of deviations from a reference model.
Abstract Background Clinical forecasting models have potential to optimize treatment and improve outcomes in psychosis, but predicting long-term outcomes is challenging and long-term follow-up data ...are scarce. In this 10-year longitudinal study, we aimed to characterize the temporal evolution of cortical correlates of psychosis and their associations with symptoms. Design Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from people with first-episode psychosis and controls (n = 79 and 218) were obtained at enrollment, after 12 months (n = 67 and 197), and 10 years (n = 23 and 77), within the Thematically Organized Psychosis (TOP) study. Normative models for cortical thickness estimated on public MRI datasets (n = 42 983) were applied to TOP data to obtain deviation scores for each region and timepoint. Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) scores were acquired at each timepoint along with registry data. Linear mixed effects models assessed effects of diagnosis, time, and their interactions on cortical deviations plus associations with symptoms. Results LMEs revealed conditional main effects of diagnosis and time × diagnosis interactions in a distributed cortical network, where negative deviations in patients attenuate over time. In patients, symptoms also attenuate over time. LMEs revealed effects of anterior cingulate on PANSS total, and insular and orbitofrontal regions on PANSS negative scores. Conclusions This long-term longitudinal study revealed a distributed pattern of cortical differences which attenuated over time together with a reduction in symptoms. These findings are not in line with a simple neurodegenerative account of schizophrenia, and deviations from normative models offer a promising avenue to develop biomarkers to track clinical trajectories over time.
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