ABSTRACT We present an improved estimate of the occurrence rate of small planets orbiting small stars by searching the full four-year Kepler data set for transiting planets using our own planet ...detection pipeline and conducting transit injection and recovery simulations to empirically measure the search completeness of our pipeline. We identified 156 planet candidates, including one object that was not previously identified as a Kepler Object of Interest. We inspected all publicly available follow-up images, observing notes, and centroid analyses, and corrected for the likelihood of false positives. We evaluated the sensitivity of our detection pipeline on a star-by-star basis by injecting 2000 transit signals into the light curve of each target star. For periods shorter than 50 days, we find Earth-size planets (1−1.5 R⊕) and super-Earths (1.5−2 R⊕) per M dwarf. In total, we estimate a cumulative planet occurrence rate of 2.5 0.2 planets per M dwarf with radii 1−4 R⊕ and periods shorter than 200 days. Within a conservatively defined habitable zone (HZ) based on the moist greenhouse inner limit and maximum greenhouse outer limit, we estimate an occurrence rate of Earth-size planets and super-Earths per M dwarf HZ. Adopting the broader insolation boundaries of the recent Venus and early Mars limits yields a higher estimate of Earth-size planets and super-Earths per M dwarf HZ. This suggests that the nearest potentially habitable non-transiting and transiting Earth-size planets are 2.6 0.4 pc and pc away, respectively. If we include super-Earths, these distances diminish to 2.1 0.2 pc and pc.
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae and/or non-USASCII text omitted) We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar ...characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000 K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 R sub(+ in circle) planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is ... planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 R sub(+ in circle)) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at ... Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 R sub(+ in circle) planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes two Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is ... planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will be conducting a nearly all-sky photometric survey over two years, with a core mission goal to discover small transiting exoplanets orbiting ...nearby bright stars. It will obtain 30 minute cadence observations of all objects in the TESS fields of view, along with two-minute cadence observations of 200,000-400,000 selected stars. The choice of which stars to observe at the two-minute cadence is driven by the need to detect small transiting planets, which leads to the selection of primarily bright, cool dwarfs. We describe the catalogs assembled and the algorithms used to populate the TESS Input Catalog (TIC), including plans to update the TIC with the incorporation of the Gaia second data release in the near future. We also describe a ranking system for prioritizing stars according to the smallest transiting planet detectable, and assemble a Candidate Target List (CTL) using that ranking. We discuss additional factors that affect the ability to photometrically detect and dynamically confirm small planets, and we note additional stellar populations of interest that may be added to the final target list. The TIC is available on the STScI MAST server, and an enhanced CTL is available through the Filtergraph data visualization portal system at the URL http://filtergraph.com/tess_ctl.
Previous measurements of stellar properties for K2 stars in the Ecliptic Plane Input Catalog largely relied on photometry and proper motion measurements, with some added information from available ...spectra and parallaxes. Combining Gaia DR2 distances with spectroscopic measurements of effective temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) DR5, we computed updated stellar radii and masses for 26,838 K2 stars. For 195,250 targets without a LAMOST spectrum, we derived stellar parameters using random forest regression on photometric colors trained on the LAMOST sample. In total, we measured spectral types, effective temperatures, surface gravities, metallicities, radii, and masses for 222,088 A, F, G, K, and M-type K2 stars. With these new stellar radii, we performed a simple reanalysis of 299 confirmed and 517 candidate K2 planet radii from Campaigns 1-13, elucidating a distinct planet radius valley around 1.9 R⊕, a feature thus far only conclusively identified with Kepler planets, and tentatively identified with K2 planets. These updated stellar parameters are a crucial step in the process toward computing K2 planet occurrence rates.
We present a catalog of cool dwarf targets ( , Teff 4000 K) and their stellar properties for the upcoming Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), for the purpose of determining which cool ...dwarfs should be observed using two minute observations. TESS has the opportunity to search tens of thousands of nearby, cool, late K- and M-type dwarfs for transiting exoplanets, an order of magnitude more than current or previous transiting exoplanet surveys, such as Kepler, K2, and ground-based programs. This necessitates a new approach to choosing cool dwarf targets. Cool dwarfs are chosen by collating parallax and proper motion catalogs from the literature and subjecting them to a variety of selection criteria. We calculate stellar parameters and TESS magnitudes using the best possible relations from the literature while maintaining uniformity of methods for the sake of reproducibility. We estimate the expected planet yield from TESS observations using statistical results from the Kepler mission, and use these results to choose the best targets for two minute observations, optimizing for small planets for which masses can conceivably be measured using follow-up Doppler spectroscopy by current and future Doppler spectrometers. The catalog is available in machine readable format and is incorporated into the TESS Input Catalog and TESS Candidate Target List until a more complete and accurate cool dwarf catalog identified by ESA's Gaia mission can be incorporated.
ABSTRACT The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a NASA-sponsored Explorer mission that will perform a wide-field survey for planets that transit bright host stars. Here, we predict the ...properties of the transiting planets that TESS will detect along with the EB stars that produce false-positive photometric signals. The predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of the nearby population of stars, occurrence rates of planets derived from Kepler, and models for the photometric performance and sky coverage of the TESS cameras. We expect that TESS will find approximately 1700 transiting planets from pre-selected target stars. This includes 556 planets smaller than twice the size of Earth, of which 419 are hosted by M dwarf stars and 137 are hosted by FGK dwarfs. Approximately 130 of the planets will have host stars brighter than . Approximately 48 of the planets with lie within or near the habitable zone ( ); between 2 and 7 such planets have host stars brighter than . We also expect approximately 1100 detections of planets with radii 2-4 , and 67 planets larger than 4 . Additional planets larger than 2 can be detected around stars that are not among the pre-selected target stars, because TESS will also deliver full-frame images at a 30-minute cadence. The planet detections are accompanied by over 1000 astrophysical false positives. We discuss how TESS data and ground-based observations can be used to distinguish the false positives from genuine planets. We also discuss the prospects for follow-up observations to measure the masses and atmospheres of the TESS planets.
Young planets offer a direct view of the formation and evolution processes that produced the diverse population of mature exoplanet systems known today. The repurposed Kepler mission K2 is providing ...the first sample of young transiting planets by observing populations of stars in nearby, young clusters and stellar associations. We report the detection and confirmation of two planets transiting K2-264, an M2.5 dwarf in the 650 Myr old Praesepe open cluster. Using our notch-filter search method on the K2 light curve, we identify planets with periods of 5.84 and 19.66 days. This is currently the second known multi-transit system in open clusters younger than 1 Gyr. The inner planet has a radius of and the outer planet has a radius of R⊕. Both planets are likely mini-Neptunes. These planets are expected to produce radial velocity signals of 3.4 and 2.7 m s−1, respectively, which is smaller than the expected stellar variability in the optical ( 30 m s−1), making mass measurements unlikely in the optical but possible with future near-infrared spectrographs. We use an injection-recovery test to place robust limits on additional planets in the system and find that planets larger than 2 R⊕ with periods of 1-20 days are unlikely.
Abstract
We simulate the yield of small (0.5–4.0
R
⊕
) transiting exoplanets around single mid-M and ultracool dwarfs (UCDs) in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain ...Survey. We consider multiple approaches for simulating M3–T9 sources within the survey fields, including scaling local space densities and using Galactic stellar population synthesis models. These approaches independently predict ∼100,000 single mid-M dwarfs and UCDs brighter than a Roman F146 magnitude of 21 that are within the survey fields. Assuming planet occurrence statistics previously measured for early-to-mid-M dwarfs, we predict that the survey will discover
1347
−
124
+
208
small transiting planets around these sources, each to a significance of 7.1
σ
or greater. Significant departures from this prediction would test whether the occurrence rates of small planets increase or decrease around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs compared to early-M dwarfs. We predict the detection of
13
−
3
+
4
habitable, terrestrial planets (
R
p
< 1.23
R
⊕
) in the survey. However, atmospheric characterization of these planets will be challenging with current or near-future space telescope facilities due to the faintness of the host stars. Nevertheless, accurate statistics for the occurrence of small planets around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs will enable direct tests of predictions from planet formation theories and will determine our understanding of planet demographics around the objects at the bottom of the main sequence. This understanding is critical given the prevalence of such objects in our galaxy, whose planets may therefore comprise the bulk of the galactic census of exoplanets.
The Kepler mission is uniquely suited to study the frequencies of extrasolar planets. This goal requires knowledge of the incidence of false positives such as eclipsing binaries in the background of ...the targets, or physically bound to them, which can mimic the photometric signal of a transiting planet. Using real noise level estimates, we compute the number and characteristics of detectable eclipsing pairs involving main-sequence stars and non-main-sequence stars or planets, and we quantify the fraction of those that would pass the Kepler candidate vetting procedure. By comparing their distribution with that of the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) detected during the first six quarters of operation of the spacecraft, we infer the false positive rate of Kepler and study its dependence on spectral type, candidate planet size, and orbital period. In the process, we also derive a prescription for the signal recovery rate of Kepler that enables a good match to both the KOI size and orbital period distribution, as well as their signal-to-noise distribution.
Abstract The Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020 has recommended that NASA realize a large IR/optical/UV space telescope optimized for high-contrast imaging and spectroscopy of ∼25 ...exo-Earths and transformative general astrophysics. The NASA Exoplanet Exploration Program (ExEP) has subsequently released a list of 164 nearby ( d < 25 pc) targets deemed the most accessible to survey for potentially habitable exoplanets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). We present a catalog of system properties for the 164 ExEP targets, including 1744 abundance measurements for 14 elements from the Hypatia Catalog and 924 photometry measurements spanning from 151.6 nm to 22 μ m in the GALEX, Strömgren, Tycho, Gaia, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer bandpasses. We independently derive stellar properties for these systems by modeling their spectral energy distributions with Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, by consulting the literature, we identify TESS flare rates for 46 stars, optical variability for 78 stars, and X-ray emission for 46 stars in our sample. We discuss our catalog in the context of planet habitability and draw attention to key gaps in our knowledge where precursor science can help to inform HWO mission design trade studies in the near future. Notably, only 33 of the 164 stars in our sample have reliable space-based UV measurements, and only 40 have a mid-IR measurement. We also find that phosphorus, a bioessential element, has only been measured in 11 of these stars, motivating future abundance surveys. Our catalog is publicly available and we advocate for its use in future studies of promising HWO targets.
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