Changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over global land areas are compared from a broad range of independent data sets. All data sets agree that global‐mean DTR has decreased significantly since ...1950, with most of that decrease occurring over 1960–1980. The since‐1979 trends are not significant, with inter‐data set disagreement even over the sign of global changes. Inter‐data set spread becomes greater regionally and in particular at the grid box level. Despite this, there is general agreement that DTR decreased in North America, Europe, and Australia since 1951, with this decrease being partially reversed over Australia and Europe since the early 1980s. There is substantive disagreement between data sets prior to the middle of the twentieth century, particularly over Europe, which precludes making any meaningful conclusions about DTR changes prior to 1950, either globally or regionally. Several variants that undertake a broad range of approaches to postprocessing steps of gridding and interpolation were analyzed for two of the data sets. These choices have a substantial influence in data sparse regions or periods. The potential of further insights is therefore inextricably linked with the efficacy of data rescue and digitization for maximum and minimum temperature series prior to 1950 everywhere and in data sparse regions throughout the period of record. Over North America, station selection and homogeneity assessment is the primary determinant. Over Europe, where the basic station data are similar, the postprocessing choices are dominant. We assess that globally averaged DTR has decreased since the middle twentieth century but that this decrease has not been linear.
Key Points
It is virtually certain globally diurnal temperature range declined since 1950
Large differences/method sensitivities preclude assessment of DTR before 1950
In some regions DTR has very likely increased in the last two to three decades
We present a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set, HadCRUT5. HadCRUT5 presents monthly average near‐surface temperature anomalies, ...relative to the 1961–1990 period, on a regular 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid from 1850 to 2018. HadCRUT5 is a combination of sea‐surface temperature (SST) measurements over the ocean from ships and buoys and near‐surface air temperature measurements from weather stations over the land surface. These data have been sourced from updated compilations and the adjustments applied to mitigate the impact of changes in SST measurement methods have been revised. Two variants of HadCRUT5 have been produced for use in different applications. The first represents temperature anomaly data on a grid for locations where measurement data are available. The second, more spatially complete, variant uses a Gaussian process based statistical method to make better use of the available observations, extending temperature anomaly estimates into regions for which the underlying measurements are informative. Each is provided as a 200‐member ensemble accompanied by additional uncertainty information. The combination of revised input data sets and statistical analysis results in greater warming of the global average over the course of the whole record. In recent years, increased warming results from an improved representation of Arctic warming and a better understanding of evolving biases in SST measurements from ships. These updates result in greater consistency with other independent global surface temperature data sets, despite their different approaches to data set construction, and further increase confidence in our understanding of changes seen.
Plain Language Summary
We have produced a new version of a data set that measures changes of near‐surface temperature across the globe from 1850 to 2018, called HadCRUT5. We have included an improved data set of sea‐surface temperature, which better accounts for the effects of changes through time in how measurement were made from ships and buoys at sea. We have also included an expanded compilation of measurements made at weather stations on land. There are two variations of HadCRUT5, produced for different uses. The first, the “HadCRUT5 noninfilled data set,” maps temperature changes on a grid for locations close to where we have measurements. The second, the “HadCRUT5 analysis,” extends our estimates to locations further from the available measurements using a statistical technique that makes use of the spatial connectedness of temperature patterns. This improves the representation of less well observed regions in estimates of global, hemispheric and regional temperature change. Together, these updates and improvements reveal a slightly greater rise in near‐surface temperature since the nineteenth century, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, which is more consistent with other data sets. This increases our confidence in our understanding of global surface temperature changes since the mid‐19th century.
Key Points
We have created a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set for 1850–2018
The new data set better represents sparsely observed regions of the globe and incorporates an improved sea‐surface temperature data set
This data set shows increased global average warming since the mid‐19th century and in recent years, consistent with other analyses
We have systematically studied the effect of the orbital inclination in the outburst evolution of black hole transients. We have included all the systems observed by the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ...in which the thermal, accretion disc component becomes strongly dominant at some point of the outburst. Inclination is found to modify the shape of the tracks that these systems display in the colour/luminosity diagrams traditionally used for their study. Black hole transients seen at low inclination reach softer spectra and their accretion discs look cooler than those observed closer to edge-on. This difference can be naturally explained by considering inclination-dependent relativistic effects on accretion discs.
We report on a consistent and comprehensive spectral analysis of the X-ray emission of 25 black hole X-ray binaries. All publicly available observations of the black hole binaries in the RXTE archive ...were analysed. Three different types of model were fitted to investigate the spectral changes occurring during an outburst. For the population, as well as for each binary and each outburst from each binary, we construct two diagnostic diagrams. The hardness intensity/luminosity diagram (HID/HLD), the X-ray colour against the flux/luminosity of the binary, is most useful when studying a single binary. However, to compare different binary systems, the disc fraction luminosity diagram (DFLD) is more useful. The DFLD uses the luminosities of the disc and power-law components to calculate the ratio of the disc luminosity to the total luminosity, resulting in a more physical value, which is analogous to the X-ray colour calculated for X-ray binaries. The tracks of the outbursts populate the DFLD more evenly than the HLD. We discuss the limitations of both diagnostic diagrams for the study of the X-ray binary outbursts and clearly illustrate how the two diagrams map on to each other for real outburst data. The similarity of the X-ray colour and disc fraction behaviour over time during an outburst originally seen in GX 339−4 data is seen in other sources' outbursts. We extract the peak luminosities in a single outburst, as well as the luminosities at the transitions away from and returning to the power-law-dominated state for each outburst. The distribution of the luminosities at the transition from the power-law to the disc-dominated state peaks at around 0.3LEdd, the same as the peak of the distribution of the peak luminosities in an outburst. Using the disc fraction to calculate the transition luminosities shows that the distributions of the luminosities for the transitions away from and returning to the power-law-dominated state are both broad and appear to overlap. Using the change in disc fraction to calculate the date when a transition occurred is not drastically different from obtaining the dates from changes in the timing behaviour of the X-ray binary. In addition, we calculate the rate of motion of an X-ray binary through the DFLD during an outburst, a diagnostic which has the potential to be used as a comparison with populations of active galactic nuclei. The fastest rate of motion is on the egress and ingress from the power-law-dominated state. A further region of increased speed through the diagram occurs in the disc-dominated state on the return to the power-law-dominated state. Finally, we compare the measured X-ray luminosities with a small number of contemporaneous radio measurements. Overall, this is the most comprehensive and uniform global study of black hole X-ray binaries to date.
Using Chandra X-ray observations of nine nearby, X-ray luminous elliptical galaxies with good optical velocity dispersion measurements, we show that a tight correlation exists between the Bondi ...accretion rates calculated from the observed gas temperature and density profiles and estimated black hole masses, and the power emerging from these systems in relativistic jets. The jet powers, which are inferred from the energies and time-scales required to inflate cavities observed in the surrounding X-ray emitting gas, can be related to the accretion rates using a power-law model of the form log (PBondi/1043 erg s−1) =A+B log (Pjet/1043 erg s−1), with A= 0.65 ± 0.16 and B= 0.77 ± 0.20. Our results show that a significant fraction of the energy associated with the rest mass of material entering the Bondi accretion radius (2.2+1.0−0.7 per cent, for Pjet= 1043 erg s−1) eventually emerges in the relativistic jets. The data also hint that this fraction may rise slightly with increasing jet power. Our results have significant implications for studies of accretion, jet formation and galaxy formation. The observed tight correlation suggests that the Bondi formulae provide a reasonable description of the accretion process in these systems, despite the likely presence of magnetic pressure and angular momentum in the accreting gas. The similarity of the PBondi and Pjet values argues that a significant fraction of the matter entering the accretion radius flows down to regions close to the black holes, where the jets are presumably formed. The tight correlation between PBondi and Pjet also suggests that the accretion flows are approximately stable over time-scales of a few million years. Our results show that the black hole ‘engines’ at the hearts of large elliptical galaxies and groups can feed back sufficient energy to stem cooling and star formation, leading naturally to the observed exponential cut off at the bright end of the galaxy luminosity function.
In this study, we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land‐based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data ...using a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High‐quality in situ observations from over 7000 temperature and 11,000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75° × 2.5° longitude‐latitude grid over the period 1901–2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity, and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.
Key Points
We present the most comprehensive land‐based gridded dataset of climate extremes
Temperature extremes show consistent warming trends over the past century
Precipitation extremes are increasing in more areas than they are decreasing
The black hole X-ray binary XTE J1550–564 was monitored extensively at X-ray, optical and infrared wavelengths throughout its outburst in 2000. We show that it is possible to separate the ...optical/near-infrared (OIR) jet emission from the OIR disc emission. Focussing on the jet component, we find that as the source fades in the X-ray hard state, the OIR jet emission has a spectral index consistent with optically thin synchrotron emission (α≈−0.6 to −0.7, where Fν∝να). This jet emission is tightly and linearly correlated with the X-ray flux; suggesting a common origin. This is supported by the OIR, X-ray and OIR to X-ray spectral indices being consistent with a single power law (α=−0.73). Ostensibly the compact synchrotron jet could therefore account for ∼100 per cent of the X-ray flux at low luminosities in the hard state. At the same time, (i) an excess is seen over the exponential decay of the X-ray flux at the point in which the jet would start to dominate, (ii) the X-ray spectrum slightly softens, which seems to be due to a high-energy cut-off or break shifting to a lower energy and (iii) the X-ray rms variability increases. This may be the strongest evidence to date of synchrotron emission from the compact, steady jet dominating the X-ray flux of an X-ray binary. For XTE J1550–564, this is likely to occur within the luminosity range ∼(2 × 10−4–2 × 10−3) LEdd on the hard-state decline of this outburst. However, on the hard-state rise of the outburst and initially on the hard-state decline, the synchrotron jet can only provide a small fraction (∼ a few per cent) of the X-ray flux. Both thermal Comptonization and the synchrotron jet can therefore produce the hard X-ray power law in accreting black holes. In addition, we report a phenomenological change in the OIR spectral index of the compact jet from possibly a thermal distribution of particles to one typical of optically thin synchrotron emission, as the jet increases in energy over these ∼20 d. Once the steady jet is fully formed and the infrared and X-ray fluxes are linearly correlated, the spectral index does not vary (maintaining α=−0.7) while the luminosity decreases by a factor of 10. These quantitative results provide unique insights into the physics of the relativistic jet acceleration process.
HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature in situ observations-only climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent ...estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a tool for the long-term monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. It is also useful for climate model evaluation and reanalyses validation. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates and with theoretical understanding. The data set is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and the Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land-sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2019 BLUNDEN, J.; ARNDT, D. S.; Dunn, R. J. H. ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
08/2020, Letnik:
101, Številka:
8
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
In 2019, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere continued to increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 409.8 ± 0.1 ppm, an ...increase of 2.5 ± 0.1 ppm over 2018, and the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contributed 3.14 W m−2 to radiative forcing, representing a 45% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. The annual net global uptake of ∼2.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by oceans was the highest in the record dating to 1982 and 33% higher than the 1997–2017 average.
A weak El Niño at the beginning of 2019 transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions by mid-year. Even so, the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the three highest in records dating to the mid- to late 1800s. July 2019 was Earth’s hottest month on record. Well over a dozen countries across Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Caribbean reported record high annual temperatures. In North America, Alaska experienced its warmest year on record, while the high northern latitudes that encompass the Arctic were second warmest, behind only 2016. Stations in several countries, including Vietnam, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, and the United Kingdom, set new all-time daily high temperature records for their nations. Australia set a new nationally averaged daily maximum temperature record of 41.9°C on 18 December, breaking the previous record set in 2013 by 1.6°C. Daily temperatures surpassed 40°C for the first time in Belgium and the Netherlands.
Lake temperatures increased on average across the globe in 2019; observed lakes in the Northern Hemisphere were covered in ice seven days fewer than the 1981–2010 average, according to phenological indicators. Over land, the growing season was an average of eight days longer than the 2000–10 average in the NH.
Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third highest to record high, and the lower stratosphere temperature was third lowest to record low, depending on the dataset analyzed. Middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures were lowest on record since satellite records began in 1979. In September, Antarctica experienced a dramatic upper-atmosphere warming event that led to the smallest ozone hole since the early 1980s.
Below-average Antarctic sea ice extent persisted throughout 2019, continuing a trend that began in September 2016. Net sea ice extent was below the 1981–2010 average for all days of the year, and January and June each set a new low monthly mean sea ice extent record. The Antarctic ice sheet continued to lose mass, with the highest rates of loss occurring in West Antarctica and Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.
Across the cryosphere, alpine glaciers continued to lose mass for the 32nd consecutive year. Permafrost temperatures in the European Alps were slightly below the record temperatures measured in 2015, while record high permafrost temperatures were observed at a majority of the observation sites across the high northern latitudes. For the first time in the observational record at 26 sites in interior Alaska and the Seward Peninsula, the active layer did not freeze completely, a result of long-term permafrost warming and back-to-back relatively mild and snowy winters.
In March, when Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent, thin, first-year ice comprised ∼77% of all ice, compared to about 55% in the 1980s. In September, the minimum sea ice extent tied for the second smallest extent in the 41-year satellite record. In the Bering Sea, increasing ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice—which was the lowest on record there for the second consecutive winter—are leading to shifts in fish distributions within some of the most valuable fisheries in the world. Larger and more abundant boreal species, as opposed to smaller and less abundant Arctic species, dominated a large portion of the Arctic shelf in 2018 and 2019.
During the 2019 melt season, the extent and magnitude of ice loss over the Greenland ice sheet rivaled 2012, the previous year of record ice loss. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets, along with warming oceans, account for the trend in rising global mean sea level.
In 2019, global mean sea level set a new record for the eighth consecutive year, reaching 87.6 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, with an annual average increase of 6.1 mm from 2018. Ocean heat content measured to 700 m depth was record high, and the globally averaged sea surface temperature was the second highest on record, surpassed only by the record El Niño year of 2016. In October, the Indian Ocean dipole exhibited its greatest magnitude since 1997, associated with dramatic upper ocean warming in the western Indian Ocean basin.
While ENSO conditions during 2019 appeared to have limited impacts, many climate events were influenced by the strong positive IOD, which contributed to a large rainfall deficit from the eastern Indian Ocean to the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. Record heat and dryness in Australia intensified drought conditions already in place following below-average rainfall in 2017 and 2018, leading to severe impacts during late austral spring and summer, including catastrophic wildfires. Smoke from these wildfires, along with the volcanic eruptions of Raikoke (Russia) and Ulawun (Papua New Guinea), helped load the stratosphere with aerosol levels unprecedented since the post-Mt. Pinatubo era of the early 1990s. Indonesia also suffered severe drought and extreme wildfires toward the end of 2019; no rainfall was observed in the East Sumba District of the East Nusa Tenggara Province for 263 days.
Conversely, the positive IOD also contributed to excess rainfall over the Horn of Africa from August through December, resulting in widespread flooding across East Africa. Elsewhere, India experienced one of its heaviest summer monsoon rains since 1995 despite a delayed and suppressed monsoon during June. In the United States, rapid snowmelt in the spring, as well as heavy and frequent precipitation in the first half of the year, contributed to extensive flooding in the Midwest throughout spring and summer, notably the Mississippi and Missouri basins.
Dry conditions persisted over large parts of western South Africa, in some locations having continued for approximately seven years. Antecedent dry conditions and extreme summer heat waves pushed most of Europe into extreme drought.
Due in part to precipitation deficits during December 2018 to January 2019—the peak of the rainy season—wildfires scorched vast areas of the southern Amazonian forests in Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru, as well as in northern Paraguay, later in 2019. Millions of trees and animals perished, with some local extinctions reported. In Siberia, fire activity during the summer was both strong and farther north than usual. This led to a new record of 27 teragrams (1012 g) of carbon emitted from fires in the Arctic, which was more than twice as high than in any preceding year.
Closer to the equator, 96 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Five tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. In the North Atlantic basin, Hurricane Dorian caused unprecedented and tremendous devastation, with over 70 fatalities and damages totaling $3.4 billion (U.S. dollars) in The Bahamas. Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth severely impacted southeastern Africa in March and April, respectively. Idai resulted in total damages of at least $2.2 billion (U.S. dollars), the costliest storm on record for the South Indian Ocean basin, as well as the deadliest with over 1200 fatalities across Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Madagascar.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We analyse those objects in the Brightest 55 sample of clusters of galaxies which have a short central cooling time and a central temperature drop. Such clusters are likely to require some form of ...heating. Where clear radio bubbles are observed in these clusters, their energy injection is compared to the X-ray cooling rate. Of the 20 clusters requiring heating, at least 14 have clear bubbles, implying a duty cycle for the bubbling activity of at least 70 per cent. The average distance out to which the bubbles can offset the X-ray cooling, r
heat, is given by r
heat/r
cool= 0.86 ± 0.11 where r
cool is defined as the radius as which the radiative cooling time is 3 Gyr. 10 out of 16 clusters have r
heat/r
cool≳ 1, but there is a large range in values. The clusters which require heating but show no clear bubbles were combined with those clusters which have a radio core to form a second subsample. Using r
heat= 0.86r
cool we calculate the size of an average bubble expected in these clusters. In five cases (3C129.1, A2063, A2204, A3112 and A3391) the radio morphology is bi-lobed and its extent similar to the expected bubble sizes. A comparison between the actual bubble size and the maximum expected if they were to offset the X-ray cooling exactly, R
max, shows a peak at R
bubble∼ 0.7R
max with a tail extending to larger R
bubble/R
max. The offset from the expected value of R
bubble∼R
max may indicate the presence of a non-thermal component in the innermost intracluster medium of most clusters, with a pressure comparable to the thermal pressure.
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