BACKGROUND Mortality risk prediction tools have been developed in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, however, it is unknown whether these models accurately estimate mortality in systemic ...sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). Methods: Four baseline risk prediction models—the Composite Physiologic Index, the Interstitial Lung Disease-Gender, Age, Physiology Index, the du Bois index, and the modified du Bois index—were calculated for patients recruited from a specialized SSc-ILD clinic. Each baseline model was assessed using logistic regression analysis with 1-year mortality as the outcome variable. Discrimination was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed using the goodness-of-fit test. The incremental prognostic ability of additional predictor variables was determined by adding prespecified variables to each baseline model. Results: The 156 patients with SSc-ILD completed 1,294 pulmonary function tests, 725 6-min walk tests, and 637 echocardiograms. Median survival was 15.0 years from the time of SSc-ILD diagnosis. All baseline models were significant predictors of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD. The modified du Bois index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84, compared with 0.77 to 0.81 in the other models. Calibration was acceptable for the modified du Bois index, but was poor for the other models. All baseline models include FVC and 6-min walk distance was identified as an additional independent predictor of 1-year mortality. Conclusions The modified du Bois index has good discrimination and calibration for the prediction of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD. FVC and 6-min walk distance are important independent predictors of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD. CHEST 2015; 148(5):1268-1275
BACKGROUND Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, prognostication of SSc-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) remains ...challenging. We conducted a systematic review to identify variables that predict mortality and ILD progression in SSc-ILD. METHODS Three databases were searched to identify all studies relating to predictors of mortality or ILD progression in SSc-ILD. Studies were eligible if they were published in English and included ≥ 10 adults with SSc-ILD. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data from acceptable studies. RESULTS The initial search identified 3,145 unique citations. Twenty-seven studies, including six abstracts, met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1,616 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific variables predicted mortality and progression; however, most predictors were identified in only one study. Most studies did not fully account for potential confounders, and none of the studies included a validation cohort. Older age, lower FVC, and lower diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide predicted mortality in more than one study. Male sex, extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan, presence of honeycombing, elevated KL-6 values, and increased alveolar epithelial permeability were identified as predictors of both mortality and ILD progression on unadjusted analysis. The extent of disease on HRCT scan was the only variable that independently predicted both mortality and ILD progression. CONCLUSIONS Mortality and ILD progression were predicted by several patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific factors. Additional prospective studies are required to validate these preliminary findings and to identify combinations of variables that accurately predict the prognosis of SSc-ILD.
Unless they receive antimycobacterial prophylaxis in some form, up to 40 percent of patients have disseminated
Mycobacterium avium
complex infection within two years of the diagnosis of the acquired ...immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).
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Disseminated
M. avium
complex infection causes fever, night sweats, diarrhea, anorexia, abdominal pain, and wasting and is associated with shortened survival.
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Prophylaxis against opportunistic infections is critical to the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease as it progresses. The high incidence of disseminated
M. avium
complex infection, its considerable morbidity, and the limited response to therapy make it a logical target for prophylaxis.
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