Livestock play a significant role in rural livelihoods and the economies of developing countries. They are providers of income and employment for producers and others working in, sometimes complex, ...value chains. They are a crucial asset and safety net for the poor, especially for women and pastoralist groups, and they provide an important source of nourishment for billions of rural and urban households. These socio-economic roles and others are increasing in importance as the sector grows because of increasing human populations, incomes and urbanisation rates. To provide these benefits, the sector uses a significant amount of land, water, biomass and other resources and emits a considerable quantity of greenhouse gases. There is concern on how to manage the sector's growth, so that these benefits can be attained at a lower environmental cost. Livestock and environment interactions in developing countries can be both positive and negative. On the one hand, manures from ruminant systems can be a valuable source of nutrients for smallholder crops, whereas in more industrial systems, or where there are large concentrations of animals, they can pollute water sources. On the other hand, ruminant systems in developing countries can be considered relatively resource-use inefficient. Because of the high yield gaps in most of these production systems, increasing the efficiency of the livestock sector through sustainable intensification practices presents a real opportunity where research and development can contribute to provide more sustainable solutions. In order to achieve this, it is necessary that production systems become market-orientated, better regulated in cases, and socially acceptable so that the right mix of incentives exists for the systems to intensify. Managing the required intensification and the shifts to new value chains is also essential to avoid a potential increase in zoonotic, food-borne and other diseases. New diversification options and improved safety nets will also be essential when intensification is not the primary avenue for developing the livestock sector. These processes will need to be supported by agile and effective public and private institutions.
The purpose of this paper was to identify effective dairy farm management adjustments related to recent structural changes in agricultural commodity markets because of expanded biofuels production ...and other market factors. We developed a mathematical programming model of a representative dairy farm in New York State to estimate the effects of changes in the relative prices of important feed components on farm profitability, identify optimal adjustments for on-farm feed production, crop sales, and dairy rations that account for expanded utilization of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and point out potential implications of these adjustments on whole-farm nutrient planning. We mapped out an effective farm-level demand curve for DDGS by varying DDGS prices relative to other primary feed ingredients, which allowed us to compare DDGS utilization at alternative market conditions. Had the relative prices of major feed ingredients remained at their historical averages, our results suggest that there is only modest potential for feeding DDGS through supplementation in rations for dry cows and heifers as a substitute for soybean meal. However, the relatively lower DDGS prices experienced in 2008 imply an expanded optimal use of DDGS to include rations for lactating cows at 10% of the total mixed ration. Despite these expanded opportunities for DDGS at lower prices, the effects on farm net returns were modest. The most important considerations are perhaps those related to changes in the phosphorus (P) levels in the dairy waste. We showed that including moderate levels of DDGS (10%) in rations for lactating cows did not significantly increase P excretion. However, if the rations for dry cows and heifers were supplemented with DDGS, P excretion did increase, resulting in sizable increases of plant-available phosphorus applied to cropland well beyond crop nutrient requirements. Although our results show that it is economically optimal for the dairy producer to incorporate DDGS into these rations, some operations will be unable to accommodate the additional P because of existing nutrient management recommendations, soil P status, and the number of acres available for manure spreading.
The purpose of this paper was to identify effective dairy farm management adjustments related to recent structural changes in agricultural commodity markets because of expanded biofuels production ...and other market factors. We developed a mathematical programming model of a representative dairy farm in New York State to estimate the effects of changes in the relative prices of important feed components on farm profitability, identify optimal adjustments for on-farm feed production, crop sales, and dairy rations that account for expanded utilization of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and point out potential implications of these adjustments on whole-farm nutrient planning. We mapped out an effective farm-level demand curve for DDGS by varying DDGS prices relative to other primary feed ingredients, which allowed us to compare DDGS utilization at alternative market conditions. Had the relative prices of major feed ingredients remained at their historical averages, our results suggest that there is only modest potential for feeding DDGS through supplementation in rations for dry cows and heifers as a substitute for soybean meal. However, the relatively lower DDGS prices experienced in 2008 imply an expanded optimal use of DDGS to include rations for lactating cows at 10% of the total mixed ration. Despite these expanded opportunities for DDGS at lower prices, the effects on farm net returns were modest. The most important considerations are perhaps those related to changes in the phosphorus (P) levels in the dairy waste. We showed that including moderate levels of DDGS (10%) in rations for lactating cows did not significantly increase P excretion. However, if the rations for dry cows and heifers were supplemented with DDGS, P excretion did increase, resulting in sizable increases of plant-available phosphorus applied to cropland well beyond crop nutrient requirements. Although our results show that it is economically optimal for the dairy producer to incorporate DDGS into these rations, some operations will be unable to accommodate the additional P because of existing nutrient management recommendations, soil P status, and the number of acres available for manure spreading.
We systematically reviewed the literature on farm household models, with emphasis on those focused on smallholder systems. The models were evaluated on their predictive ability to describe short term ...(3–10 years) food security of smallholder farm households under climate variability and under different scenarios of climate change. The review of 126, mainly production-oriented, farm household models, showed that integrated analyses of food security at the farm household level are scarce. Some models deal with elements of food security, but the models covered in this review are weak on decision-making theory and risk analyses. These aspects need urgent attention for dealing with more complex adaptation and mitigation questions, in the face of climatic change. Approaches that make use of decision making theory and combine the strengths of (dynamic) mathematical programming and expert systems decision models seem promising in this respect. They could support the robust evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptive management options on smallholder systems.
•Integrated analyses of food security at farm household level are missing•Current models should incorporate more elements of decision-making theory and risk analyses•These model improvements are needed for more robust evaluations of climate change effects•These model improvements also allow for better evaluation and targeting of adaptation options
This book draws together chapters by leading global experts to explore the complex relationship between food security and sociopolitical stability up to roughly 2025. It offers new insights building ...on lessons learned since the 2008 and 2011 global food price spikes sparked political unrest that toppled multiple governments and spurred a global land rush unlike any seen since the nineteenth century. The volume opens with three broad background papers that discuss the full sweep of the topic and likely scenarios over the coming decade for the global food economy and climate patterns relevant to food production. These chapters are followed by a group of thematic papers, cutting across major world regions to look at core stressors or responses: the policies, technologies, and key resource inputs of the global food system. The last set of chapters explore the political economy of food security strategies in key developing countries and regions. These chapters explore how emerging market firms and governments might attempt to satisfy growth in domestic food demand in the face of various global stressors, through a range of labor, land, technology, trade, water, and related actions or policies, as well as which sociopolitical instability risks might be associated with those strategies.
In this paper, we apply mathematical programming methods to account explicitly for restrictions
on land application of nutrients from large dairy operations in New York and to analyze the
effects on ...measured outcomes of farm management adjustments to the nutrient policy and to
recent changes in relevant agricultural prices. Based on a set of unique data, we assess the
effects of new regulations for nutrient management by confined animal feeding operations
(CAFOs) on farm income, land use, manure and fertilizer management, and environmental
quality for an important dairy production region in New York. Our mathematical methods also
allow us to make distinctions between the value of land for production and as a manure disposal
site so that we can assess the differential effects of the land nutrient application standards on the
economic value of land.
The results indicate that adjustments to dairy rations in response to the current high prices of
traditional feed ingredients lead to increased nitrogen and phosphorus content in dairy waste. In
addition, crop nutrient applications from manure far exceed the critical uptake levels for
optimum yield and increase the risks of nutrient loading to the environment. In a related paper,
we demonstrate that while the CAFO regulations correct for this problem, the reductions in the
risks of nutrient loadings could be accompanied by losses to farm income. Our current
application to an important dairy production region in Western New York further buttresses this
point. We also demonstrate that farm net revenue is sensitive to the availability of nearby land
suitable for manure disposal. Since the new nutrient restrictions require that about half of the
manure produced on the dairy farms in the region be transported off-site for disposal, crops with
higher potential to absorb field nutrients are more attractive than would otherwise be the case.
The shadow prices for CAFO land with low soil phosphorus increase, reflecting not only the
value of land for crop production but also its value as a site for manure disposal. These shadow
prices reflect what the CAFOs could pay for additional land, and this price falls as the distance to
the CAFO increases.
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