Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), ...nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960–2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr−1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr−1. Over the period 2013–2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000–2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m−2 (5–95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m−2), CO2 (34.3 mW m−2), and NOx (17.5 mW m−2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m−2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.
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•Global aviation warms Earth's surface through both CO2 and net non-CO2 contributions.•Global aviation contributes a few percent to anthropogenic radiative forcing.•Non-CO2 impacts comprise about 2/3 of the net radiative forcing.•Comprehensive and quantitative calculations of aviation effects are presented.•Data are made available to analyze past, present and future aviation climate forcing.
Global-scale atmospheric measurements are used to investigate the effectiveness of recent adjustments to production and consumption controls on hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) under the Montreal ...Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and to assess recent projections of large increases in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and emission. The results show that aggregate global HCFC emissions did not increase appreciably during 2007–2012 and suggest that the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol played a role in limiting HCFC emissions well in advance of the 2013 cap on global production. HCFC emissions varied between 27 and 29 kt CFC-11-equivalent (eq)/y or 0.76 and 0.79 GtCO2-eq/y during this period. Despite slower than projected increases in aggregate HCFC emissions since 2007, total emissions of HFCs used as substitutes for HCFCs and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have not increased more rapidly than rates projected Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S.; McFarland, M.; Andersen, S. O. The Large Contribution of Projected HFC Emissions to Future Climate Forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2009, 106, 10949−10954 for 2007–2012. HFC global emission magnitudes related to this substitution totaled 0.51 (−0.03, +0.04) GtCO2-eq/y in 2012, a magnitude about two times larger than emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for these HFCs. Assuming accurate reporting to the UNFCCC, the results imply that developing countries (non-Annex I Parties) not reporting to the UNFCCC now account for nearly 50% of global HFC emissions used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Global HFC emissions (as CO2-eq) from ODS substitution can be attributed approximately equally to mobile air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the sum of all other applications.
Refractory black carbon (rBC) aerosol loadings and mass size distributions have been quantified during the HIPPO campaign above the remote Pacific from 80N to 67S. Over 100 vertical profiles of rBC ...loadings, extending from ∼0.3 to ∼14 km were obtained with a Single‐Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) during a two‐week period in January 2009. The dataset provides a striking, and previously unobtainable, pole‐to‐pole snapshot of rBC mass loadings. rBC vertical concentration profiles reveal significant dependences on latitude, while associated rBC mass size distributions were highly uniform. The vertical profiles averaged in five latitude zones were compared to an ensemble of AEROCOM model fields. The model ensemble spread in each zone was over an order of magnitude, while the model average over‐predicted rBC concentrations overall by a factor five. The comparisons suggest that rBC removal in global models may need to be evaluated separately in different latitude regions and perhaps enhanced.
In situ measurements of the mass, mixing state, and optical size of individual black‐carbon (BC) particles in the fine mode (90–600 nm) have been made in fresh emissions from urban and biomass ...burning sources with an airborne single‐particle soot photometer. Contrasts between the two sources are significant and consistent. Urban BC tends to smaller sizes, fewer coated particles, thinner coatings, and less absorption per unit mass than biomass‐burning BC. This suggests that urban BC may have a longer lifetime in the atmosphere and a different impact on BC radiative forcing in the first indirect effect than biomass‐burning BC. These measurements bound the likely variability in the microphysical state of BC emissions from typical continental processes, and provide direct measurements of the size distribution and coating state of fine‐mode BC for use in constraining climate and aerosol models. These results highlight the need for the integration of source‐specific information into such models.
During the ARCPAC (Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate) airborne field experiment in April 2008 in northern Alaska, about 50 plumes were encountered with the NOAA WP‐3 ...aircraft between the surface and 6.5 km. Onboard measurements and the transport model FLEXPART showed that most of the plumes were emitted by forest fires in southern Siberia‐Lake Baikal area and by agricultural burning in Kazakhstan‐southern Russia. Unexpectedly, these biomass burning plumes were the dominant aerosol and gas‐phase features encountered in this area during April. The influence on the plumes from sources other than burning was small. The chemical characteristics of plumes from the two source regions were different, with higher enhancements relative to CO for most gas and aerosol species from the agricultural fires. In 2008, the fire season started earlier than usual in Siberia, which may have resulted in unusually efficient transport of biomass burning emissions into the Arctic.
Schizophrenia (SZ) and autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are complex neurodevelopmental disorders that may share an underlying pathology suggested by shared genetic risk variants. We sequenced the ...exonic regions of 215 genes in 147 ASD cases, 273 SZ cases and 287 controls, to identify rare risk mutations. Genes were primarily selected for their function in the synapse and were categorized as: (1) Neurexin and Neuroligin Interacting Proteins, (2) Post-synaptic Glutamate Receptor Complexes, (3) Neural Cell Adhesion Molecules, (4) DISC1 and Interactors and (5) Functional and Positional Candidates. Thirty-one novel loss-of-function (LoF) variants that are predicted to severely disrupt protein-coding sequence were detected among 2 861 rare variants. We found an excess of LoF variants in the combined cases compared with controls (P=0.02). This effect was stronger when analysis was limited to singleton LoF variants (P=0.0007) and the excess was present in both SZ (P=0.002) and ASD (P=0.001). As an individual gene category, Neurexin and Neuroligin Interacting Proteins carried an excess of LoF variants in cases compared with controls (P=0.05). A de novo nonsense variant in GRIN2B was identified in an ASD case adding to the growing evidence that this is an important risk gene for the disorder. These data support synapse formation and maintenance as key molecular mechanisms for SZ and ASD.
A single-particle soot photometer (SP2) was flown on a NASA WB-57F high-altitude research aircraft in November 2004 from Houston, Texas. The SP2 uses laser-induced incandescence to detect individual ...black carbon (BC) particles in an air sample in the mass range of approx.3-300 fg (approx.0.15-0.7 microns volume equivalent diameter). Scattered light is used to size the remaining non-BC aerosols in the range of approx.0.17-0.7 microns diameter. We present profiles of both aerosol types from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere from two midlatitude flights. Results for total aerosol amounts in the size range detected by the SP2 are in good agreement with typical particle spectrometer measurements in the same region. All ambient incandescing particles were identified as BC because their incandescence properties matched those of laboratory-generated BC aerosol. Approximately 40% of these BC particles showed evidence of internal mixing (e.g., coating). Throughout profiles between 5 and 18.7 km, BC particles were less than a few percent of total aerosol number, and black carbon aerosol (BCA) mass mixing ratio showed a constant gradient with altitude above 5 km. SP2 data was compared to results from the ECHAM4/MADE and LmDzT-INCA global aerosol models. The comparison will help resolve the important systematic differences in model aerosol processes that determine BCA loadings. Further intercomparisons of models and measurements as presented here will improve the accuracy of the radiative forcing contribution from BCA.
Airborne observations of fluorescent aerosol were made aboard an airship during CloudLab, a series of flights that took place in September and October of 2013 and covered a wideband of longitude ...across the continental U.S. between Florida and California and between 28 and 37 N latitudes. Sampling occurred from near the surface to 1000 m above the ground. A Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS‐4) measured average concentrations of supermicron fluorescent particles aloft (1 µm to 10 µm), revealing number concentrations ranging from 2.1 ± 0.8 to 8.7 ± 2.2 × 104 particles m−3 and representing up to 24% of total supermicron particle number. We observed distinct variations in size distributions and fluorescent characteristics in different regions, and attribute these to geographically diverse bioaerosol. Fluorescent aerosol detected in the east is largely consistent with mold spores observed in a laboratory setting, while a shift to larger sizes associated with different fluorescent patterns is observed in the west. Fluorescent bioaerosol loadings in the desert west were as high as those near the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting that bioaerosol is a substantial component of supermicron aerosol both in humid and arid environments. The observations are compared to model fungal and bacterial loading predictions, and good agreement in both particle size and concentrations is observed in the east. In the west, the model underestimated observed concentrations by a factor between 2 and 4 and the prescribed particle sizes are smaller than the observed fluorescent aerosol. A classification scheme for use with WIBS data is also presented.
Key Points
Fluorescent supermicron aerosol loads are reported across the southern U.S.
Regional variations in fluorescent behavior and particle size are observed
Comparison to modeled emissions shows an underestimate in the west
Results for the solar heating rates in ambient air due to absorption by black-carbon (BC) containing particles and ozone are presented as calculated from airborne observations made in the tropical ...tropopause layer (TTL) in January-February 2006. The method uses airborne in situ observations of BC particles, ozone and actinic flux. Total BC mass is obtained along the flight track by summing the masses of individually detected BC particles in the range 90 to 600-nm volume-equivalent diameter, which includes most of the BC mass. Ozone mixing ratios and upwelling and partial downwelling solar actinic fluxes were measured concurrently with BC mass. Two estimates used for the BC wavelength-dependent absorption cross section yielded similar heating rates. For mean altitudes of 16.5, 17.5, and 18.5 km (0.5 km) in the tropics, average BC heating rates were near 0.0002 K/d. Observed BC coatings on individual particles approximately double derived BC heating rates. Ozone heating rates exceeded BC heating rates by approximately a factor of 100 on average and at least a factor of 4, suggesting that BC heating rates in this region are negligible in comparison.
Using aircraft observations and transport model calculations we determine the total amounts of various gas‐phase and aerosol species in the Arctic due to distant biomass burning (BB) emissions. We ...find that for many climate‐relevant species, including black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols, fires in Russia that typically occur during the critical springtime snowmelt can more than double the high seasonal Arctic atmospheric background that has built up in the winter months (commonly called “Arctic haze”). Decision makers have targeted BC, because it is expected to cause strong positive forcing over snow‐covered surfaces yet is significantly shorter lived than greenhouse gases. These results demonstrate that BB is more important for the Arctic than previously believed and should be considered in any attempt to mitigate impacts.
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