Wuhan was the first epicentre of COVID-19 in the world, accounting for 80% of cases in China during the first wave. We aimed to assess household transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome ...coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and risk factors associated with infectivity and susceptibility to infection in Wuhan.
This retrospective cohort study included the households of all laboratory-confirmed or clinically confirmed COVID-19 cases and laboratory-confirmed asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections identified by the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention between Dec 2, 2019, and April 18, 2020. We defined households as groups of family members and close relatives who did not necessarily live at the same address and considered households that shared common contacts as epidemiologically linked. We used a statistical transmission model to estimate household secondary attack rates and to quantify risk factors associated with infectivity and susceptibility to infection, accounting for individual-level exposure history. We assessed how intervention policies affected the household reproductive number, defined as the mean number of household contacts a case can infect.
27 101 households with 29 578 primary cases and 57 581 household contacts were identified. The secondary attack rate estimated with the transmission model was 15·6% (95% CI 15·2–16·0), assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days and a maximum infectious period of 22 days. Individuals aged 60 years or older were at a higher risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 than all other age groups. Infants aged 0–1 years were significantly more likely to be infected than children aged 2–5 years (odds ratio OR 2·20, 95% CI 1·40–3·44) and children aged 6–12 years (1·53, 1·01–2·34). Given the same exposure time, children and adolescents younger than 20 years of age were more likely to infect others than were adults aged 60 years or older (1·58, 1·28–1·95). Asymptomatic individuals were much less likely to infect others than were symptomatic cases (0·21, 0·14–0·31). Symptomatic cases were more likely to infect others before symptom onset than after (1·42, 1·30–1·55). After mass isolation of cases, quarantine of household contacts, and restriction of movement policies were implemented, household reproductive numbers declined by 52% among primary cases (from 0·25 95% CI 0·24–0·26 to 0·12 0·10–0·13) and by 63% among secondary cases (from 0·17 0·16–0·18 to 0·063 0·057–0·070).
Within households, children and adolescents were less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection but were more infectious than older individuals. Presymptomatic cases were more infectious and individuals with asymptomatic infection less infectious than symptomatic cases. These findings have implications for devising interventions for blocking household transmission of SARS-CoV-2, such as timely vaccination of eligible children once resources become available.
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, US National Institutes of Health, and US National Science Foundation.
As of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute ...respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model.
In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period.
Between Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8–15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3–21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio OR 0·23 95% CI 0·11–0·46) and among adults aged 20–59 years (OR 0·64 95% CI 0·43–0·97). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 95% CI 0·27–1·38). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41–0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49–0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives.
SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period.
US National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.
Understanding ecological niches of major tick species and prevalent tick-borne pathogens is crucial for efficient surveillance and control of tick-borne diseases. Here we provide an up-to-date review ...on the spatial distributions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens in China. We map at the county level 124 tick species, 103 tick-borne agents, and human cases infected with 29 species (subspecies) of tick-borne pathogens that were reported in China during 1950-2018. Haemaphysalis longicornis is found to harbor the highest variety of tick-borne agents, followed by Ixodes persulcatus, Dermacentor nutalli and Rhipicephalus microplus. Using a machine learning algorithm, we assess ecoclimatic and socioenvironmental drivers for the distributions of 19 predominant vector ticks and two tick-borne pathogens associated with the highest disease burden. The model-predicted suitable habitats for the 19 tick species are 14‒476% larger in size than the geographic areas where these species were detected, indicating severe under-detection. Tick species harboring pathogens of imminent threats to public health should be prioritized for more active field surveillance.
Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains ...under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.
Summary Since the beginning of the 1980s, 33 emerging tick-borne agents have been identified in mainland China, including eight species of spotted fever group rickettsiae, seven species in the family ...Anaplasmataceae, six genospecies in the complex Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, 11 species of Babesia , and the virus causing severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome. In this Review we have mapped the geographical distributions of human cases of infection. 15 of the 33 emerging tick-borne agents have been reported to cause human disease, and their clinical characteristics have been described. The non-specific clinical manifestations caused by tick-borne pathogens present a major diagnostic challenge and most physicians are unfamiliar with the many tick-borne diseases that present with non-specific symptoms in the early stages of the illness. Advances in and application of modern molecular techniques should help with identification of emerging tick-borne pathogens and improve laboratory diagnosis of human infections. We expect that more novel tick-borne infections in ticks and animals will be identified and additional emerging tick-borne diseases in human beings will be discovered.
A Zoonotic Henipavirus in Febrile Patients in China Zhang, Xiao-Ai; Li, Hao; Jiang, Fa-Chun ...
New England journal of medicine/The New England journal of medicine,
08/2022, Letnik:
387, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
In this report, investigators in China identified a new henipavirus associated with a febrile human illness. This virus was also found in shrews.
Objectives
To investigate whether ureteroscopy (URS) before radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinomas (UTUCs) has an impact on oncological outcomes.
Patients and Methods
...We performed a systematic literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE for citations published prior to September 2017 that described URS performed on patients with UTUC and conducted a standard meta‐analysis on survival outcomes.
Results
Our meta‐analysis included eight eligible studies containing 3975 patients. The results were as follows: cancer‐specific survival (CSS; hazard ratio HR 0.76, 95% confidence interval CI 0.59–0.99; P = 0.04), overall survival (OS; HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.48–1.21; P = 0.24), recurrence‐free survival (RFS; HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69–1.14; P = 0.37), metastasis‐free survival (MFS; HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.82–1.36; P = 0.66), and intravesical recurrence‐free survival (IRFS; HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.29–1.77; P < 0.001). When excluding previous bladder tumour history, the result for IRFS was a HR of 1.81 (95% CI 1.53–2.13; P < 0.001).
Conclusions
This meta‐analysis indicated that URS before RNU did not have a negative impact on CSS, OS, RFS, or MFS in patients with UTUC. However, patients were at higher risk of intravesical recurrence after RNU when they had undergone URS before RNU. Further studies are needed to assess the effects of post‐URS intravesical chemotherapy on intravesical recurrence.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence ...of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi‐model, multi‐scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.
We use an integrated multi‐model, multi‐scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in the mainland of China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. The projected spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS will be heterogeneous across provinces. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.
The temporal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and antibody production and clinical progression remained obscure. The aim of this study was to describe the viral kinetics of symptomatic patients with ...SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify factors that might contribute to prolonged viral shedding.
Symptomatic COVID-19 patients were enrolled in two hospitals in Wuhan, China, from whom the respiratory samples were collected and measured for viral loads consecutively by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay. The viral shedding pattern was delineated in relate to the epidemiologic and clinical information.
Totally 2726 respiratory samples collected from 703 patients were quantified. The SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were at the highest level during the initial stage after symptom onset, which subsequently declined with time. The median time to SARS-CoV-2 negativity of nasopharyngeal test was 28 days, significantly longer in patients with older age (> 60 years old), female gender and those having longer interval from symptom onset to hospital admission (> 10 days). The multivariate Cox regression model revealed significant effect from older age (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.96), female gender (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55-0.96) and longer interval from symptom onset to admission (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59) on longer time to SARS-CoV-2 negativity. The IgM antibody titer was significantly higher in the low viral loads group at 41-60 days after symptom onset. At the population level, the average viral loads were higher in early than in late outbreak periods.
The prolonged viral shedding of SARS-CoV-2 was observed in COVID-19 patients, particularly in older, female and those with longer interval from symptom onset to admission.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
COVID-19 has impacted populations around the world, with the fatality rate varying dramatically across countries. Selenium, as one of the important micronutrients implicated in viral infections, was ...suggested to play roles.
An ecological study was performed to assess the association between the COVID-19 related fatality and the selenium content both from crops and topsoil, in China.
Totally, 14,045 COVID-19 cases were reported from 147 cities during 8 December 2019-13 December 2020 were included. Based on selenium content in crops, the case fatality rates (CFRs) gradually increased from 1.17% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.28% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 3.16% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P = 0.002). Based on selenium content in topsoil, the CFRs gradually increased from 0.76% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.70% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 1.85% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P < 0.001). The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model showed a significantly higher fatality risk in cities with severe-selenium-deficient selenium content in crops than non-selenium-deficient cities, with incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 3.88 (95% CIs: 1.21-12.52), which was further confirmed by regression fitting the association between CFR of COVID-19 and selenium content in topsoil, with the IRR of 2.38 (95% CIs: 1.14-4.98) for moderate-selenium-deficient cities and 3.06 (1.49-6.27) for severe-selenium-deficient cities.
Regional selenium deficiency might be related to an increased CFR of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to explore the associations between selenium status and disease outcome at individual-level.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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