Loss of connectivity caused by anthropogenic barriers is a key threat for migratory freshwater species. The anadromous life history of salmonids means that barriers on streams can decrease the amount ...of habitat available for spawning and rearing. To set appropriate targets for restoration, it is important to know how different populations have been impacted in terms of the location and extent of historically available habitat that has been lost or has become inaccessible. Using mapped and predicted barriers to fish passage in streams and diking infrastructure, the amount of both floodplain and linear stream habitat that remains accessible today was estimated for 14 populations of salmon in the Lower Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada’s most productive salmon river. To place these estimates within a historical context, the floodplain area was estimated using vegetation records from the 1850s, and lost streams were estimated using a digital elevation model‐derived stream network. To bolster areas where little mapping has been done, current barrier data were used to predict locations likely to have barriers. Accessibility to floodplain was poor across the entire region with only 15% of the historical floodplain remaining accessible. Linear stream habitat ranged in accessibility from 28% to 99% across populations based on mapped barriers. Inclusion of predicted barriers revealed an additional 33 km of potentially inaccessible stream habitat and the modeled stream network located approximately 1700 km of stream length that has been completely lost. Comparing habitat accessibility and barrier density against the assessed status of populations revealed insights useful for understanding the impact of barriers on spawning and rearing and guiding the allocation of restoration effort. Applying methods for addressing missing data, such as lost streams and unmapped barriers, was essential for estimating the accessibility of habitat within a historical context. While much emphasis has been placed on the role of marine conditions in wild Pacific salmon recovery, the magnitude of habitat loss in the Fraser cannot be ignored and suggests it is a major driver of observed salmon declines.
Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) support coastal and freshwater ecosystems, economies and cultures, but many populations have declined. We used priority threat management (PTM), a decision‐support ...framework for prioritizing conservation investments, to identify management strategies that could support thriving populations of wild salmon over 25 years. We evaluated the potential benefits of 14 strategies spanning fisheries, habitat, pollution, pathogens, hatcheries and predation management dimensions on 19 conservation units (CUs)—genetically and ecologically distinct populations—of the five Pacific salmon species in the lower Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada.
The PTM assessment indicated that under the current trajectory of ‘business as usual’, zero CUs were predicted to have >50% chance of thriving in 25 years. Implementation of all management strategies at an annual investment between 45 and 110 million CAD was, however, predicted to achieve >50% chance of thriving for most CUs (n = 16), with nearly half (seven CUs) having a > 60% chance, indicating there is a pathway towards recovery for most populations if we invest now. In fact, substantial gains could be made by investing in five combined habitat strategies, costing 20M CAD annually. These habitat strategies were estimated to bring 14 of 19 salmon CUs above this 50% threshold.
Co‐governance between First Nation and provincial and federal Canadian governments to manage salmon populations and harvest, and improved CU‐level monitoring emerged from the expert elicitation as critical ‘enabling’ strategies. By improving the feasibility of different management options, co‐governance brought an additional five CUs above the 60% threshold.
Synthesis and applications. Supporting wild salmon in the face of cumulative threats will require strategic investment in effective management strategies, as identified by this priority threat management (PTM) assessment. PTM uses the best available data to objectively assess the potential outcomes of management alternatives. With renewed commitments from provincial and federal Canadian governments to protect and restore salmon populations and their habitats, positive conservation outcomes following implementation of targeted management strategies may be within reach.
Supporting wild salmon in the face of cumulative threats will require strategic investment in effective management strategies, as identified by this priority threat management (PTM) assessment. PTM uses the best available data to objectively assess the potential outcomes of management alternatives. With renewed commitments from provincial and federal Canadian governments to protect and restore salmon populations and their habitats, positive conservation outcomes following implementation of targeted management strategies may be within reach.
To achieve better biodiversity outcomes and match local governance capacity, cumulative effects assessment frameworks that combine Indigenous and western knowledge to predict future development ...impacts on biodiversity are needed.
We developed a spatial future‐focused model informed by inclusive elicitation and strategic foresight to assess the regional cumulative effects of development on ecosystem health across the land and sea. We collaborated with three First Nations on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada, enabling Indigenous priorities, knowledge and values to drive the process, from the choice of priority ecosystem components (including salmon, herring, seabirds and bears), to identifying future development scenarios (based on forestry, energy/mining, tourism and salmon aquaculture sectors). Bayesian networks were populated with empirical data and expert judgement elicited from knowledge holders to predict the cumulative effects of current and future pressures on species and ecosystems.
Under current conditions, the lowest probability of persistence was predicted for Pacific salmon (37%), followed by Pacific herring (43%). Under future conditions, the greatest declines in species health were associated with the intense development of mining, tourism and forestry, with up to a 54% decline from the current baseline health estimates predicted for Marbled Murrelets and old‐growth forest.
Future outcomes for overall ecosystem health were predicted to be worst in scenarios with high future forestry activities (>60% decline in some areas). The continuation or development of all four industries resulted in an 8% decline overall in ecosystem health across the Central Coast. In contrast, predicted ecosystem health in the tourism economy scenario increased up to 15% in some marine areas, primarily driven by the removal of salmon aquaculture and forestry activities.
Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates an inclusive, regional approach to assessing the cumulative effects of future development on coastal species. The novel participatory tools and predictive framework draw upon and interweave multiple forms of knowledge, enabling Indigenous values to drive the process, and appropriately integrate Indigenous knowledge into regional cumulative effects assessment. Our interactive web application provides First Nations partners access to all outputs, supporting Indigenous‐led governance and in situ ecosystem‐based management of their lands and water.
Our study demonstrates an inclusive, regional approach to assessing the cumulative effects of future development on coastal species. The novel participatory tools and predictive framework draw upon and interweave multiple forms of knowledge, enabling Indigenous values to drive the process, and appropriately integrate Indigenous knowledge into regional cumulative effects assessment. Our interactive web application provides First Nations partners access to all outputs, supporting Indigenous‐led governance and in situ ecosystem‐based management of their lands and water.
Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. ...Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision‐making, and decision‐support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade‐offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid‐prototyping approach. At each step, decision‐support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision‐support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision‐support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.
Resumen
Las decisiones sobre la conservación de la biodiversidad son difíciles de tomar, especialmente cuando involucran diferentes valores, objetivos multidimensionales complejos, recursos limitados, urgencia y una incertidumbre considerable. Las ciencias de la decisión incorporan una teoría sobre cómo tomar decisiones difíciles y una variedad extensa de marcos de trabajo y herramientas que transforman esa teoría en práctica. Buscamos mejorar la claridad conceptual y la aplicación práctica de las ciencias de la decisión para ayudar al órgano decisorio a aplicar estas ciencias a los problemas de conservación. Nos enfocamos en las barreras para la aceptación de las ciencias de la decisión, incluyendo la falta de capacitación y de conciencia por estas ciencias; la confusión por la terminología común y cuáles herramientas y marcos de trabajo aplicar; y la impresión errónea de que la aplicación de estas ciencias consume tiempo y debe ser costosa y compleja. Para asistir en la navegación de la literatura extensa y dispar de las ciencias de la decisión, aclaramos el significado de varios términos comunes: ciencias de la decisión, teoría de la decisión, análisis de decisiones, toma estructurada de decisiones y herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones. La aplicación de las ciencias de la decisión no tiene que ser compleja ni debe llevar mucho tiempo; de hecho, todo comienza con saber cómo pensar detenidamente en los componentes de una decisión mediante el análisis de decisiones (es decir, definir el problema, producir objetivos, desarrollar alternativas, estimar consecuencias y realizar compensaciones). Lo anterior se logra de mejor manera mediante la aplicación de una estrategia prototipos rápidos. En cada paso, las herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones pueden proporcionar visión y claridad adicionales, mientras que los marcos de apoyo para las decisiones (p.ej.: gestión de amenazas prioritarias y planeación sistemática de la conservación) pueden asistir en la navegación de los diferentes pasos de un análisis de decisiones para contextos particulares. Resumimos los marcos de trabajo y las herramientas más importantes de apoyo para las decisiones y describimos el paso, y el contexto, del análisis de decisiones para el que es más útil aplicarlos. Nuestra introducción a las ciencias de la decisión apoyará en la contextualización de las estrategias actuales y los nuevos desarrollos, y ayudarán al órgano decisorio a comenzar a aplicar estas ciencias en los problemas de conservación.
Article impact statement: An introduction to decision science is provided to aid in conceptual clarity and practical application for conservation decisions.
Instream barriers remain ubiquitous threats to freshwater species and their habitats. Decisions regarding barrier removal are often aimed at maximizing habitat area and connectivity for freshwater ...fish; yet can be challenging due to the sheer number of barriers, uncertainty in species presence, abundance, and habitat quality, as well as limited budgets alongside high costs of restoration. Here, we apply systematic conservation planning to prioritize in‐stream barrier removal aimed at restoring habitat connectivity for 14 populations of wild Pacific salmon in the lower Fraser River, Canada's most productive salmon‐bearing river. To understand how priorities change when stream quality is considered, we contrast scenarios that maximize habitat extent with scenarios that include four indicators of habitat quality. Region‐wide, approximately 64% of naturally accessible stream length is currently blocked by barriers. We estimate approximately 75% of this alienated habitat (over 1600 km of stream), could have full access restored with an investment of $200 million CAD, whereas 60% could be restored for half this amount. When stream quality was considered within the optimization, priorities for barriers removal shifted away from urbanized floodplain valleys towards less developed areas. The spatial shift in priorities meant that species like chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) would see less restored habitat. To inform barrier removal strategies using these model scenarios, an iterative and adaptive approach will be required that includes the values and priorities of rights and titleholders. Continuous improvement in data quality, accuracy, and feedback from monitoring as barriers are restored is also crucial.
Barriers in freshwater habitats are a widespread problem that pose a particular threat to migratory species, and limit freshwater productivity. It can be difficult to decide where to invest in restoration to see the greatest benefit when costs, habitats, and species vary by site. We use systematic conservation planning and optimization to demonstrate the utility of these tools for informing freshwater connectivity restoration for anadromous species.
Sumas Lake ( Xhotsa ), located in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, was the heart of Semá:th Nation Territory and the epicenter of a complex Indigenous food system. For the Semá:th people, ...the lake represented life and livelihood. In 1924, the lake was stolen and drained in an instance of land theft that occurred during a nationwide campaign of land dispossession and genocide, decimating an ecology that supported a rich and diverse Indigenous food system and replacing it with a settler food system. A century later, in November 2021 climate change induced flooding caused the lake to return, resulting in the evacuation of thousands of people and causing millions in damages to homes and infrastructure. Since the flood, the response has been a continuation of the status quo to protect settler agricultural lands via increased investment in hard structures that control the flow of water based on assumptions of the predictability of future flow conditions. We offer a missing narrative by bringing together an analysis of Indigenous laws and oral tradition with an assessment of the economic costs of “managed retreat”, defined as the purposeful relocation of people and infrastructure out of harm’s way. We find that the cost of buying out properties in the lakebed and allowing the lake to return is close to half the cost ($1 billion) of maintaining the status quo ($2.4 billion), while facilitating climate adaptation, and restoration of a floodplain ecosystem that supported thriving populations of people, salmon, sturgeon, ducks, and food and medicinal plants– including many species which are now endangered. Returning Sumas Lake by centering ‘Water Back’ as a climate resiliency solution, enacts both food systems and ecological reconciliation, addressing the harms caused by the loss of the lake to the Semá:th People that is still felt to this day. In a time when climate change induced flooding is predicted to increase, this study demonstrates how the inclusion of Indigenous laws and knowledges are critical to the development of solutions toward a more sustainable and just future.
Spacecraft environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) include a number of air revitalization (AR) technologies to provide breathable air and a comfortable living environment to the crew. ...Crew health and comfort is ensured by controlling human produced CO2 (1 kg person-1 day-1) and water vapor (~2 kg person-1 day-1), and by removing trace contaminants (TCs) from cabin air. These life support functions on-board the International Space Station (ISS) are carried out by the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA), the Water Processor Assembly (WPA), and the trace contaminant control system (TCCS). During the development of the TCCS, new analytical and theoretical methods were developed in the 1970s for characterizing adsorption and desorption characteristics of activated carbons for the purpose of designing suitable AR technologies required for controlling airborne trace contaminants within spacecraft cabins during long exploration missions. The TCCS removes harmful volatile organic compounds and other trace contaminants from the circulating air. It consists of a granular activated carbon (GAC) bed for the removal of high molecular weight contaminants and ammonia followed by a heated catalytic bed for low molecular weight hydrocarbons. The high temperature catalytic oxidizer (HTCO) of the TCCS, which operates at 400°C and requires 120W average power, removes low molecular weight compounds such as carbon monoxide (CO), formaldehyde (CH2O), and methane (CH4), that pass through the GAC bed. The Air Revitalization Laboratory at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) was established to develop new analytical methods for evaluating emerging ECLSS technologies for use in future AR architectures. General properties of adsorbents and catalysts are required for trace contaminant control system design calculations and vendor-supplied data are seldom available at relevant process conditions of interest to spacecraft cabin applications. To address this shortcoming, appropriate testbeds were developed to measure the desired properties of AR technologies being considered for use in ECLS architectures. Generally, the testbeds developed at KSC challenge the test media (activated carbon, impregnated activated carbon, catalysts, zeolites, solid amines, or pleated filters) with simulated spacecraft gas streams containing representative mixtures of trace contaminants (volatile organic compounds, ammonia, CO, CO2, or siloxanes) at the flow rates, temperatures, and relative humidity that will be encountered within manned spacecraft. Work performed at KSC funded by NASA’s Advanced Exploration (AES) Program has included: Identifying candidate sorbents to replace commercially obsolete impregnated carbons for NH3 control within the TCCS, characterizing their adsorptive capacities using simulated spacecraft gas streams, and ranking their appropriateness in various AR applications; evaluating novel low temperature catalysts for controlling CO and formaldehyde by traditional and photocatalytic methods for trace contaminant control; development of analytical methods to assess regenerable solid amine performance for CO2 control via pressure swing adsorption. The Air Revitalization lab was also funded to study trace contaminant control by other NASA programs. These include: screening of candidate sorbents for the design of new Charcoal HEPA Integrated Particle Scrubber (CHIPS) filters for removing siloxanes from cabin air; characterizing the performance of an impregnated activated carbon at low humidity for use in ORION ECLS; screening of sorbents for protecting the Sabatier 2.0 catalyst from DMSO2, siloxanes, NH3, and solid amine byproducts.
Abstract
Background
The development of a fast and accurate, non-sputum-based point-of-care triage test for tuberculosis (TB) would have a major impact on combating the TB burden worldwide. A new ...fingerstick blood test has been developed by Cepheid (the Xpert MTB Host Response MTB-HR prototype), which generates a “TB score” based on messenger RNA (mRNA) expression of 3 genes. Here we describe the first prospective findings of the MTB-HR prototype.
Methods
Fingerstick blood from adults presenting with symptoms compatible with TB in South Africa, The Gambia, Uganda, and Vietnam was analyzed using the Cepheid GeneXpert MTB-HR prototype. Accuracy of the Xpert MTB-HR cartridge was determined in relation to GeneXpert Ultra results and a composite microbiological score (GeneXpert Ultra and liquid culture) with patients classified as having TB or other respiratory diseases (ORD).
Results
When data from all sites (n = 75 TB, 120 ORD) were analyzed, the TB score discriminated between TB and ORD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94 (95% confidence interval CI, .91–.97), sensitivity of 87% (95% CI, 77–93%) and specificity of 94% (88–97%). When sensitivity was set at 90% for a triage test, specificity was 86% (95% CI, 75–97%). These results were not influenced by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status or geographical location. When evaluated against a composite microbiological score (n = 80 TB, 111 ORD), the TB score was able to discriminate between TB and ORD with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI, .83–.94), 80% sensitivity (95% CI, 76–85%) and 94% specificity (95% CI, 91–96%).
Conclusions
Our interim data indicate the Cepheid MTB-HR cartridge reaches the minimal target product profile for a point of care triage test for TB using fingerstick blood, regardless of geographic area or HIV infection status.
This study is the first prospective evaluation of the Cepheid MTB-HR test using fingerstick blood in a multi-site cohort. Interim results indicate the test reaches the WHO TPP for a TB Triage test regardless of geographical location and HIV status.
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