•A waterborne pathogen and disease modelling and scenario analysis framework are presented.•The framework will provide a better understanding of disease burden in data sparse areas.•Priorities ...include application of QMRA and comprehensive scenario analysis.•The framework results contribute to developing solutions to achieve the SDGs.
Diarrhoea caused by waterborne pathogens still has a large burden of disease. We introduce a modelling and scenario analysis framework that enables better understanding of sources of and possible future changes in the disease burden due to environmental change and management implementation. The state-of-the-art research that can contribute to the development of the framework at the large scale is analysed, together with research gaps and opportunities for future research. Priorities have been identified and these include implementation of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and application of the models in scenario analyses. The credibility of the model outputs should be central in the analysis, for example by developing stochastic models. Implementation of the framework contributes towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
► An approach to model variable river flow velocity in large scale models is presented. ► The approach is based on the Manning–Strickler formula. ► The representation of lateral transport has been ...improved. ► Climate change impacts on flow velocity, and on residence time of water were assessed.
This paper introduces an approach to route discharge with a variable river flow velocity based on the Manning–Strickler formula within large scale hydrological models. The approach has been developed for the global scale hydrological model WaterGAP and model results have been analyzed focusing on Europe. The goal was to find a method that is simple enough to derive the required parameters from globally available data while being sophisticated enough to deliver realistic flow velocity estimates for a large variety of environmental conditions. The river bed roughness (Manning’s n) is approximated in a spatially explicit way based on topography, the location of urban population, and river sinuosity. The hydraulic radius is estimated from actual river discharge, and river bed slope is derived by combining a high resolution DEM, a 5arc min drainage direction map, and river sinuosity. The modeled river flow velocity has been validated against data of US gauging stations. The representation of lateral transport has clearly been improved compared to the constant flow velocity applied in older model versions. The effect of incorporating variable flow velocities as compared to a constant flow velocity is largest on flood discharge, which generally increases in large rivers. The impact on monthly discharge hydrographs is marginal only. WaterGAP has been driven by three climate change projections for the 2050s to assess climate change impacts on flow velocity, and on the residence time of water in the European river system. Results indicate a decrease in residence times for Northern Europe and an increase for parts of the Mediterranean.
Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A ...sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.
•Model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) can identify robustness in estimates of water quality hotspots and trends.•Water quality MIPs can improve understanding of pollution causes and model ...uncertainties.•MIP design should focus on using consistent input datasets and harmonize output variables and spatial/temporal resolutions.•MIPs of lumped models should focus on pollutant loadings at river basin outlets.•MIPs of grid-based models can compare spatial water quality heterogeneity within basins.
Several model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) have been carried out recently by the climate, hydrological, agricultural and other modelling communities to quantify modelling uncertainties and improve modelling systems. Here we focus on MIP design for large-scale water quality models. Water quality MIPs can be useful to improve our understanding of pollution problems and facilitate the development of harmonized estimates of current and future water quality. This can provide new opportunities for assessing robustness in estimates of water quality hotspots and trends, improve understanding of processes, pollution sources, water quality model uncertainties, and to identify priorities for water quality data collection and monitoring. Water quality MIP design should harmonize relevant model input datasets, use consistent spatial/temporal domains and resolutions, and similar output variables to improve understanding of water quality modelling uncertainties and provide harmonized water quality data that suit the needs of decision makers and other users.
Spatial covariance of ecosystem services and poverty in China Eigenbrod, Felix; Tang, Zhiyao; Eisner, Stephanie ...
International journal of biodiversity science, ecosystems services & management,
01/2017, Letnik:
13, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Ecosystem services (ESs) are known to be particularly important to the rural poor globally and effective management of such services is argued to be a sustainable pathway out of poverty. However, ...there is as yet no clear evidence as to how important ESs are for poverty alleviation, partly as there are very few large-scale studies addressing this issue. Here, we examine patterns of spatial covariation of income poverty and provisioning services and biodiversity using county-level data across China (n = 1924). We conduct our analyses both at the national scale and at the subnational scale. At the national scale, poor counties have significantly lower levels of agricultural provisioning services and water availability, but significantly higher levels of forest-related provisioning services and biodiversity. This finding supports the hypothesis that in general, high levels of poverty co-occur with areas with high levels of non-agricultural ESs. However, in the forest-dominated counties in southern China, low poverty, high densities of forest-related provisioning services and high levels of natural forest cover co-occur. Our results highlight the scale and context dependency of patterns of co-occurrence of poverty and ESs, and the importance of large-scale analyses for understanding the relationships between poverty and ESs.
EDITED BY Berta Martín-López
Purpose - The aim of this study is to analyze future changes of freshwater needs in the electricity production sector and to identify hotspots where future cooling water needs may not be ...fulfilled.Design methodology approach - To address the goals of this study, a scenario and simulation approach was selected to estimate water availability and water uses in Europe up to 2050. Two SCENES scenarios were selected to cover a wide range of water-related driving forces including future developments in population, GDP, electricity production, technological and structural changes, as well as climate change.Findings - Depending on the scenario, water withdrawals in the electricity production would increase by 68 percent or decrease by 33 percent between 2000 and 2050. At the same time, water availability at low flow (Q90) would decrease because of climate change in southern and south-eastern parts of Europe as well as in Ireland and the UK. Especially in these regions hotspots were identified where water is scarce and where growing water demand promotes water stress that may cause economic losses.Originality value - This paper presents hotspots of the thermal electricity production sector in Europe. In these regions water shortages were expected to lead to water stress due to climate change accompanied by increasing water demand for cooling purposes and by competing water use sectors.
In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change represents a potential threat to river ...ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States (SCENES) project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges that are then used to: (i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, (ii) determine three different inundation parameters, and (iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Results of this study indicate that in snow-affected catchments (e.g. in Central and Eastern Europe) inundation may appear earlier in the year. Duration and volume of inundation are expected to decrease. This will lead to a reduction in habitat for fish, vertebrates, water birds and floodplain-specific vegetation causing a loss in biodiversity, floodplain productivity and fish production. Contradictory results occur in Spain, France, Southern England and the Benelux countries. This reflects the uncertainties of current climate modelling for specific seasons.
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