Rising methane: A new climate challenge Fletcher, Sara E Mikaloff; Schaefer, Hinrich
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
06/2019, Letnik:
364, Številka:
6444
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The amount of the greenhouse gas methane in Earth's atmosphere is rising rapidly
In 2007, the amount of methane in the atmosphere (CH
4
) began to rise after a 7-year period of near-zero growth (
1
...). Recent research shows that a second step change occurred in 2014 (
2
). From 2014 to at least the end of 2018, the amount of CH
4
in the atmosphere increased at nearly double the rate observed since 2007 (see the figure). Because CH
4
is a potent greenhouse gas, rising atmospheric CH
4
presents a major challenge to achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, an international consensus to limit temperature increase to 2°C or, if possible, to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
The application of high-power voltage-source converters (VSCs) to multiterminal dc networks is attracting research interest. The development of VSC-based dc networks is constrained by the lack of ...operational experience, the immaturity of appropriate protective devices, and the lack of appropriate fault analysis techniques. VSCs are vulnerable to dc-cable short-circuit and ground faults due to the high discharge current from the dc-link capacitance. However, faults occurring along the interconnecting dc cables are most likely to threaten system operation. In this paper, cable faults in VSC-based dc networks are analyzed in detail with the identification and definition of the most serious stages of the fault that need to be avoided. A fault location method is proposed because this is a prerequisite for an effective design of a fault protection scheme. It is demonstrated that it is relatively easy to evaluate the distance to a short-circuit fault using voltage reference comparison. For the more difficult challenge of locating ground faults, a method of estimating both the ground resistance and the distance to the fault is proposed by analyzing the initial stage of the fault transient. Analysis of the proposed method is provided and is based on simulation results, with a range of fault resistances, distances, and operational conditions considered.
We present 60 years of Δ14CO2 measurements from Wellington, New Zealand (41° S, 175° E). The record has been extended and fully revised. New measurements have been used to evaluate the existing ...record and to replace original measurements where warranted. This is the earliest direct atmospheric Δ14CO2 record and records the rise of the 14C bomb spike and the subsequent decline in Δ14CO2 as bomb 14C moved throughout the carbon cycle and increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions further decreased atmospheric Δ14CO2. The initially large seasonal cycle in the 1960s reduces in amplitude and eventually reverses in phase, resulting in a small seasonal cycle of about 2 ‰ in the 2000s. The seasonal cycle at Wellington is dominated by the seasonality of cross-tropopause transport and differs slightly from that at Cape Grim, Australia, which is influenced by anthropogenic sources in winter. Δ14CO2 at Cape Grim and Wellington show very similar trends, with significant differences only during periods of known measurement uncertainty. In contrast, similar clean-air sites in the Northern Hemisphere show a higher and earlier bomb 14C peak, consistent with a 1.4-year interhemispheric exchange time. From the 1970s until the early 2000s, the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Δ14CO2 were quite similar, apparently due to the balance of 14C-free fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the north and 14C-depleted ocean upwelling in the south. The Southern Hemisphere sites have shown a consistent and marked elevation above the Northern Hemisphere sites since the early 2000s, which is most likely due to reduced upwelling of 14C-depleted and carbon-rich deep waters in the Southern Ocean, although an underestimate of fossil fuel CO2 emissions or changes in biospheric exchange are also possible explanations. This developing Δ14CO2 interhemispheric gradient is consistent with recent studies that indicate a reinvigorated Southern Ocean carbon sink since the mid-2000s and suggests that the upwelling of deep waters plays an important role in this change.
This paper proposes a multi-timescale volt/var optimization for the optimal dispatch of battery energy storage system in smart distribution grids. It aims to coordinate the substation on-load tap ...changer operation on slow-timescale (hourly basis) with the photovoltaic inverters and battery storage operations on fast-timescale (15 min basis). This coordination is achieved by using two-stage stochastic programming and implemented via model predictive control. The power loss and energy purchase cost are reduced while maintaining voltages within limits. The forecasting uncertainties are modeled by generating a large number of random scenarios and then subsequently reducing scenario numbers to establish a tradeoff between computational burden and accuracy of the solution. The mixed-integer second-order cone program (MISOCP) is formulated with reduced scenarios, which achieves global optimum. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed MISOCP model in keeping the voltages within limits under forecasting uncertainties.
We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air‐sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff ...Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air‐sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2‐based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air‐sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2‐climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river‐derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2‐climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo‐Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air‐sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long‐term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
This paper compares transient responses of virtual oscillator control (VOC) to the conventional droop control method, under various inverter terminal voltage amplitude and frequency regulations. The ...system of interest is an islanded microgrid of three three-phase inverters sharing a resistive load. By letting the two controllers have similar steady-state droop characteristics, the virtual oscillator and droop controlled systems are compared in a small-signal framework with the aid of eigenvalue analyses. The analytical results are verified by simulating the two systems in MATLAB/Simulink. In the simulations, the third inverter in each system is connected to share the load when the other two inverters are already synchronized. Transients are compared by examining synchronization time after the third inverter is connected. The key finding is VOC outperforms droop control in terms of time responses when the terminal voltage frequency regulation range is allowed to be wide; otherwise, the droop control responds faster than the VOC technique. The same conclusions are found for two other load types: constant power load and nonlinear load. In addition, transient energy losses are investigated, which shows positive correlation with the time response.
This work proposes to develop a novel real-time (RT) magnetic equivalent-circuit machine model, for providing accurate electromagnetic (EM) device characteristics in a time frame acceptable for RT ...applications. Utilizing this model with the Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) concept enables a wide variety of useful applications. HIL concept requires accurate, RT models to emulate the characteristics of the modeled system, thus the proposed method provides a larger range of observable dynamics for large-scale simulations, controller tests, or hardware emulations. The proposed model is implemented for a switched reluctance machine (SRM) on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). Finite-element analysis (FEA), lumped parameter modeling, and an experimental test bed serve to benchmark the modeling accuracy and RT applicability under static, dynamic, and controlled test conditions.
Robotic needle steering systems have the potential to greatly improve medical interventions, but they require new methods for medical image guidance. Three-dimensional (3-D) ultrasound is a widely ...available, low-cost imaging modality that may be used to provide real-time feedback to needle steering robots. Unfortunately, the poor visibility of steerable needles in standard grayscale ultrasound makes automatic segmentation of the needles impractical. A new imaging approach is proposed, in which high-frequency vibration of a steerable needle makes it visible in ultrasound Doppler images. Experiments demonstrate that segmentation from this Doppler data is accurate to within 1-2 mm. An image-guided control algorithm that incorporates the segmentation data as feedback is also described. In experimental tests in ex vivo bovine liver tissue, a robotic needle steering system implementing this control scheme was able to consistently steer a needle tip to a simulated target with an average error of 1.57 mm. Implementation of 3-D ultrasound-guided needle steering in biological tissue represents a significant step toward the clinical application of robotic needle steering.
We discuss the methodological issues associated with measuring stress hormones in wild animals. We discuss five questions that we think should be considered about the use of stress hormone ...measurements in conservation physiology. We present a meta-analysis showing that human activities consistently increase stress hormone levels across vertebrates.
Conservation physiology proposes that measures of physiological stress (glucocorticoid levels) can be used to assess the status and future fate of natural populations. Increases in glucocorticoids may reflect a more challenging environment, suggesting that the influence of human activities on free-living animals could be quantified by measuring glucocorticoids. Biomedical studies suggest that chronic increases in glucocorticoids can have detrimental effects on survival and reproduction, which could influence the viability of populations. Here, we discuss the use of measurements of glucocorticoids in conservation physiology. We first provide an overview of the different methods to quantify glucocorticoids and their utility in conservation physiology. We then discuss five questions we think are essential for conservation physiologists to address. We highlight how intrinsic (e.g. sex, reproductive status, age, recent experiences) and ecological factors (e.g. predation, food availability, snowfall) can, by themselves or through their interactions with anthropogenic disturbances, affect the physiological stress response and mask any general patterns about the effects of anthropogenic disturbances on glucocorticoids. Using a meta-analysis, we show that anthropogenic disturbances are consistently associated with increased glucocorticoids regardless of the type of human disturbance. We also show that males may be more sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances than females and that faecal glucocorticoids, but not baseline plasma glucocorticoids, consistently increase in response to anthropogenic disturbances. Finally, we discuss how increases in glucocorticoids in free-living animals can sometimes enhance survival and reproduction. Unfortunately, our literature analysis indicates that this observation has not yet gained traction, and very few studies have shown that increases in glucocorticoid levels resulting from anthropogenic disturbances decrease survival or reproduction. We think that the use of measures of glucocorticoids in conservation physiology has tremendous potential, but there are still a number of methodological concerns, in addition to several crucial questions that should be addressed.
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