Background: Although serious health effects associated with paniculate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM) and ≤ 2.5 μm (PM₂.₅; fine fraction) are documented in many studies, the ...effects of coarse PM (PM₂.₅-₁₀) are still under debate. Objective: In this study, we estimated the effects of short-term exposure of PM₂.₅-₁₀ on daily mortality in Stockholm, Sweden. Method: We collected data on daily mortality for the years 2000 through 2008. Concentrations of PM₁₀ , PM₂.₅, ozone, and carbon monoxide were measured simultaneously in central Stockholm. We used additive Poisson regression models to examine the association between daily mortality and PM₂.₅-₁₀ on the day of death and the day before. Effect estimates were adjusted for other pollutants (two-pollutant models) during different seasons. Results: We estimated a 1.68% increase 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20%, 3.15% in daily mortality per 10-μg/m³ increase in PM₂.₅-₁₀ (single-pollutant model). The association with PM₂.₅-₁₀ was stronger for November through May, when road dust is most important (1.69% increase; 95% CI: 0.21%, 3.17%), compared with the rest of the year (1.31% increase; 95% CI: -2.08%, 4.70%), although the difference was not statistically significant. When adjusted for other pollutants, particularly PM₂.₅, the effect estimates per 10 μg/m³ for PM₂.₅-₁₀ decreased slightly but were still higher than corresponding effect estimates for PM₂.₅· Conclusions: Our analysis shows an increase in daily mortality associated with elevated urban background levels of PM₂.₅-₁₀· Regulation of PM₂.₅-₁₀ should be considered, along with actions to specifically reduce PM₂.₅-₁₀ emissions, especially road dust suspension, in cities.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
There is highly suggestive evidence for an effect of air pollution exposure on dementia-related outcomes, but evidence is not yet present to clearly pinpoint which pollutants are the probable causal ...agents. The aims of this study was to assess the longitudinal association between exposures of fine ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) from residential wood burning, and vehicle exhaust, with dementia.
We used data from the Betula study, a longitudinal study of dementia in Umeå, Northern Sweden. The study size was 1 806 and the participants were followed from study entry (1993-1995) to 2010. Modelled levels of source-specific fine particulate matter at the residential address were combined with information on wood stoves or wood boilers, and with validated data on dementia diagnosis and individual-level characteristics from the Betula study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate Hazard Ratios (HRs) and their 95% CIs for dementia incidence (vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease), adjusted for individual-level characteristics.
The emission of PM2.5 from local residential wood burning was associated with dementia incidence with a hazard ratio of 1.55 for a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00-2.41, p-value 0.05). Study participants with an address in an area with the highest quartile of PM2.5 from residential wood burning and who also had a wood-burning stove were more likely to develop dementia than those in the lower three quartiles without a wood-burning stove with hazard ratios of 1.74 (CI: 1.10-2.75, p-value 0.018). Particulate matter from traffic exhaust seemed to be associated with dementia incidence with hazard ratios of 1.66, (CI: 1.16-2.39), p-value 0.006, and 1.41 (CI: 0.97-2.23), p-value 0.07, in the third and fourth quartiles, respectively.
If the associations we observed are causal, then air pollution from residential wood burning, and air pollution from traffic, might be independent important risk factors for dementia.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the ...whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council.
Abstract Background The on-going climate change is predicted to yield a growing number of extreme climate events which will increase in both intensity and frequency. Increased longevity is changing ...society's demographics. It is very likely this will have a direct impact on population health. Many studies have previously shown that the elderly in a society are among the most vulnerable to heat waves. Objectives With a rapidly growing number of publications on this subject the objective was to review the recent literature for research regarding the impact of heat waves and elevated temperature on the elderly with regards to mortality and morbidity. Methods PubMed was searched to identify studies published in English between 1st of January 2008 and 31st of December 2010 using the following key words: heat wave, mortality, morbidity, elderly and temperature. The relationship between high temperature and mortality and/or morbidity had to be studied. Results for the elderly had to be provided. Results Six studies of temperature–morbidity-relationship were found and 24 studies of temperature–mortality-relationship. Studies consistently reported increases in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as appeared also respiratory admissions to do during hot days and heat waves. However, the number of studies on morbidity published was much fewer. Few studies reported social, medical and environmental susceptibility factors. Conclusions Future research should focus on studying susceptibilities and to non-fatal events which are not as studied as mortality. Studies on the modification of type of urban environment, housing and mortality and morbidity in the elderly population are also needed.
The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for 0.7 million swedes. The river is subject to contamination from sewer systems discharge and runoff from agricultural lands. Climate models projects an ...increase in precipitation and heavy rainfall in this region. This study aimed to determine how daily rainfall causes variation in indicators of pathogen loads, to increase knowledge of variations in river water quality and discuss implications for risk management.
Data covering 7 years of daily monitoring of river water turbidity and concentrations of E. coli, Clostridium and coliforms were obtained, and their short-term variations in relation with precipitation were analyzed with time series regression and non-linear distributed lag models. We studied how precipitation effects varied with season and compared different weather stations for predictive ability.
Generally, the lowest raw water quality occurs 2 days after rainfall, with poor raw water quality continuing for several more days. A rainfall event of >15 mm/24-h (local 95 percentile) was associated with a three-fold higher concentration of E. coli and 30% higher turbidity levels (lag 2). Rainfall was associated with exponential increases in concentrations of indicator bacteria while the effect on turbidity attenuated with very heavy rainfall. Clear associations were also observed between consecutive days of wet weather and decreased water quality. The precipitation effect on increased levels of indicator bacteria was significant in all seasons.
Rainfall elevates microbial risks year-round in this river and freshwater source and acts as the main driver of varying water quality. Heavy rainfall appears to be a better predictor of fecal pollution than water turbidity. An increase of wet weather and extreme events with climate change will lower river water quality even more, indicating greater challenges for drinking water producers, and suggesting better control of sources of pollution.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The American Thoracic Society has previously published statements on what constitutes an adverse effect on health of air pollution in 1985 and 2000. We set out to update and broaden these past ...statements that focused primarily on effects on the respiratory system. Since then, many studies have documented effects of air pollution on other organ systems, such as on the cardiovascular and central nervous systems. In addition, many new biomarkers of effects have been developed and applied in air pollution studies.This current report seeks to integrate the latest science into a general framework for interpreting the adversity of the human health effects of air pollution. Rather than trying to provide a catalogue of what is and what is not an adverse effect of air pollution, we propose a set of considerations that can be applied in forming judgments of the adversity of not only currently documented, but also emerging and future effects of air pollution on human health. These considerations are illustrated by the inclusion of examples for different types of health effects of air pollution.
Genetic and environmental factors both contribute to the development of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). One suggested environmental risk factor for ...ASD and ADHD is air pollution, but knowledge of its effects, especially in low-exposure areas, are limited. Here, we investigate risks for ASD and ADHD associated with prenatal exposure to air pollution in an area with air pollution levels generally well below World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines.
We used an epidemiological database (MAPSS) consisting of virtually all (99%) children born between 1999 and 2009 (48,571 births) in the study area, in southern Sweden. MAPSS consists of data on modelled nitrogen oxide (NOx) levels derived from a Gaussian dispersion model; maternal residency during pregnancy; perinatal factors collected from a regional birth registry; and socio-economic factors extracted from Statistics Sweden. All ASD and ADHD diagnoses in our data were undertaken at the Malmö and Lund Departments of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, using standardized diagnostic instruments. We used logistic regression analyses to obtain estimates of the risk of developing ASD and ADHD associated with different air pollution levels, with adjustments for potential perinatal and socio-economic confounders.
In this longitudinal cohort study, we found associations between air pollution exposure during the prenatal period and and the risk of developing ASD. For example, an adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) of 1.40 and its 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (95% CI: 1.02–1.93) were found when comparing the fourth with the first quartile of NOx exposure. We did not find similar associations on the risk of developing ADHD.
This study contributes to the growing evidence of a link between prenatal exposure to air pollution and autism spectrum disorders, suggesting that prenatal exposure even below current WHO air quality guidelines may increase the risk of autism spectrum disorders.
•We performed population-based research, with data on clinical diagnoses of autism and ADHD.•We had access to data on other neuro-developmental disorder, perinatal factors, and SES.•We modelled NOx with an extensive emission database and dispersion modelling.•We did not find an association of ADHD and NOx at relatively low-exposure levels.•We found a link between prenatal exposure NOx-exposure and autism.
Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on ...heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.
We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.
This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The mortality impacts of hot and cold temperatures have been thoroughly documented, with most locations reporting a U-shaped relationship with a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at which mortality ...is lowest. How MMT may have evolved over previous decades as the global mean surface temperature has increased has not been thoroughly explored.
We used observations of daily mean temperatures to investigate whether MMT changed in Stockholm, Sweden, from the beginning of the 20th century until 2009.
Daily mortality and temperature data for the period 1901-2009 in Stockholm, Sweden, were used to model the temperature-mortality relationship. We estimated MMT using distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression models considering lags up to 21 days of daily mean temperature as the exposure variable. To avoid large influences on the MMT from intra- and interannual climatic variability, we estimated MMT based on 30-year periods. Furthermore, we investigated whether there were trends in the absolute value of the MMT and in the relative value of the MMT (the corresponding percentile of the same-day temperature distribution) over the study period.
Our findings suggest that both the absolute MMT and the relative MMT increased in Stockholm, Sweden, over the course of the 20th century.
The increase in the MMT over the course of the 20th century suggests autonomous adaptation within the context of the large epidemiological, demographical, and societal changes that occurred. Whether the rate of increase will be sustained with climate change is an open question.
Oudin Åström D, Tornevi A, Ebi KL, Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. 2016. Evolution of minimum mortality temperature in Stockholm, Sweden, 1901-2009. Environ Health Perspect 124:740-744; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509692.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
AbstractObjectiveTo assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide.DesignTwo stage time series analysis.Setting406 cities in 20 ...countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network.PopulationDeaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period.Main outcome measuresDaily total mortality (all or non-external causes only).ResultsA total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively.ConclusionsResults suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
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