Abstract
During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, gun violence (GV) in the United States (U.S.) was postulated to increase strain on already taxed healthcare resources, such as blood ...products, intensive care beds, personal protective equipment, and even hospital staff. This report aims to estimate the relative risk of GV in the U.S. during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic. Daily police reports corresponding to gun-related injuries and deaths in the 50 states and the District of Columbia from February 1st, 2019, to March 31st, 2021 were obtained from the GV Archive. Generalized linear mixed-effects models in the form of Poisson regression analysis were utilized to estimate the state-specific rates of GV. Nationally, GV rates were 30% higher between March 01, 2020, and March 31, 2021 (during the pandemic), compared to the same period in 2019 (before the pandemic) intensity ratio (IR) = 1.30; 95% CI 1.29, 1.32; p < 0.0001. The risk of GV was significantly higher in 28 states and significantly lower in only one state. National and state-specific rates of GV were higher during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the same timeframe 1 year prior. State-specific steps to mitigate violence, or at a minimum adequately prepare for its toll during the COVID-19 pandemic, should be taken.
There are concerns that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in sub-Saharan Africa sub-optimally interrupt Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine-serotype (VT) carriage and transmission. Here we assess ...PCV carriage using rolling, prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys between 2015 and 2018, 3.6-7.1 years after Malawi's 2011 PCV13 introduction. Carriage decay rate is analysed using non-linear regression. Despite evidence of reduction in VT carriage over the study period, there is high persistent residual carriage. This includes among PCV-vaccinated children 3-5-year-old (16.1% relative reduction from 19.9% to 16.7%); PCV-unvaccinated children 6-8-year-old (40.5% reduction from 26.4% to 15.7%); HIV-infected adults 18-40-years-old on antiretroviral therapy (41.4% reduction from 15.2% to 8.9%). VT carriage prevalence half-life is similar among PCV-vaccinated and PCV-unvaccinated children (3.26 and 3.34 years, respectively). Compared with high-income settings, there is high residual VT carriage 3.6-7.1 years after PCV introduction. Rigorous evaluation of strategies to augment vaccine-induced control of carriage, including alternative schedules and catch-up campaigns, is required.
In 2016, undernutrition, as manifested in childhood stunting, wasting, and underweight were estimated to cause over 1.0 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of disability-adjusted ...life years globally. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using the 2006-2018 cross-sectional nationally representative demographic and health surveys (DHS) data and to explore the sources of regional variations. Anthropometric measurements of children 0-59 months of age from DHS in 62 LMICs worldwide were used. Complete information was available for height-for-age (n = 624,734), weight-for-height (n = 625,230) and weight-for-age (n = 626,130). Random-effects models were fit to estimate the pooled prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight. Sources of heterogeneity in the prevalence estimates were explored through subgroup meta-analyses and meta-regression using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Human development index (a country-specific composite index based on life expectancy, literacy, access to education and per capita gross domestic product) and the United Nations region were explored as potential sources of variation in undernutrition. The overall prevalence was 29.1% (95% CI 26.7%, 31.6%) for stunting, 6.3% (95% CI 4.6%, 8.2%) for wasting, and 13.7% (95% CI 10.9%, 16.9%) for underweight. Subgroup analyses suggested that Western Africa, Southern Asia, and Southeastern Asia had a substantially higher estimated prevalence of undernutrition than global average estimates. In multivariable meta-regression, a combination of human development index and United Nations region (a proxy for geographical variation) explained 54%, 56%, and 66% of the variation in stunting, wasting, and underweight prevalence, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that regional, subregional, and country disparities in undernutrition remain, and the residual gaps to close towards achieving the second sustainable development goal-ending undernutrition by 2030.
Surveillance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has mainly relied on case reporting, which is biased by health service performance, test availability, and ...test-seeking behaviors. We report a community-wide national representative surveillance program in England based on self-administered swab results from ~594,000 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of symptoms, between May and the beginning of September 2020. The epidemic declined between May and July 2020 but then increased gradually from mid-August, accelerating into early September 2020 at the start of the second wave. When compared with cases detected through routine surveillance, we report here a longer period of decline and a younger age distribution. Representative community sampling for SARS-CoV-2 can substantially improve situational awareness and feed into the public health response even at low prevalence.
User-friendly interfaces have been increasingly used to facilitate the learning of advanced statistical methodology, especially for students with only minimal statistical training. In this paper, we ...illustrate the use of MBGapp for teaching geostatistical analysis to population health scientists. Using a case-study on Loa loa infections, we show how MBGapp can be used to teach the different stages of a geostatistical analysis in a more interactive fashion. For wider accessibility and usability, MBGapp is available as an R package and as a Shiny web-application that can be freely accessed on any web browser. In addition to MBGapp, we also present an auxiliary Shiny app, called VariagramApp, that can be used to aid the teaching of Gaussian processes in one and two dimensions using simulations.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the ...population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991-2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893-166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800-31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Despite the high prevalence of childhood protein-energy malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, their association has not been explored in this region. A better understanding of ...the epidemiologic link could help define effective preventive strategies. We aimed to explore the association of vitamin A deficiency (VAD) with stunting, wasting, and underweight among preschool children in Uganda.
We analyzed a population-based, cross-sectional data of 4,765 children aged 6-59 months who participated in 2016 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Uganda. We utilized generalized linear mixed-effects models with logit link function, adjusting for potential confounders to estimate associations between VAD and stunting, wasting, and underweight.
The prevalence of VAD was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1% to 9.6%, n = 424). Twenty-seven percent were stunted (95% CI: 26.1% to 28.6, n = 1302), 4% wasted (95% CI: 3.6% to 4.7%, n = 196), and 17% underweight (95% CI: 16.0% to 18.2%, n = 813). After adjusting for household factors (e.g., wealth index, education and working status of parents, owning land for agriculture, livestock, herds, or farm animals), vitamin A supplementation, and community factors (e.g., population density, crop growing season lengths, place of residence), children with VAD had 43% higher odds of stunted growth than those without VAD (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.89, p = 0.01). No association was observed between VAD and wasting or underweight.
Vitamin A deficiency was associated with higher odds of stunting, and the association was independent of the individual, household, and community-level variables.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Cancer incidence and mortality rates in Africa are increasing, yet their geographic distribution and determinants are incompletely characterized. The present study aims to establish the spatial ...epidemiology of cancer burden in Africa and delineate the association between cancer burden and the country-level socioeconomic status. The study also examines the forecasts of the cancer burden for 2040 and evaluates infrastructure availability across all African countries.
The estimates of age, sex, and country-specific incidence and mortality of 34 neoplasms in 54 African countries, were procured from GLOBOCAN 2020. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was employed as a proxy indicator of 5-year survival rates, and the socioeconomic development of each country was measured using its human development index (HDI). We regressed age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and MIR on HDI using linear regression model to determine the relationship between cancer burden and HDI. Maps were generated for each cancer group for each country in Africa. The data about the cancer infrastructure of African countries were extracted from the WHO Cancer Country Profiles.
In Africa, an estimated 1.1 million new cases 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) 1.0 - 1.3 million and 711,429 611,604 - 827,547 deaths occurred due to neoplasms in 2020. The ASIR was estimated to be 132.1/100,000, varying from 78.4/100,000 (Niger) to 212.5/100,000 (La Réunion) in 2020. The ASMR was 88.8/100,000 in Africa, ranging from 56.6/100,000 in the Republic of the Congo to 139.4/100,000 in Zimbabwe. The MIR of all cancer combined was 0.64 in Africa, varying from 0.49 in Mauritius to 0.78 in The Gambia. HDI had a significant negative correlation with MIR of all cancer groups combined and main cancer groups (prostate, breast, cervical and colorectal). HDI explained 75% of the variation in overall 5-year cancer survival (MIR). By 2040, the burden of all neoplasms combined is forecasted to increase to 2.1 million new cases and 1.4 million deaths in Africa.
High cancer mortality rates in Africa demand a holistic approach toward cancer control and management, including, but not limited to, boosting cancer awareness, adopting primary and secondary prevention, mitigating risk factors, improving cancer infrastructure and timely treatment.
Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. ...The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases.
The elimination of onchocerciasis through community-based Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of ivermectin (Mectizan) is hampered by co-endemicity of Loa loa, as individuals who are highly co-infected ...with Loa loa parasites can suffer serious and occasionally fatal neurological reactions from the drug. The test-and-not-treat strategy of testing all individuals participating in MDA has some operational constraints including the cost and limited availability of LoaScope diagnostic tools. As a result, a Loa loa Antibody (Ab) Rapid Test was developed to offer a complementary way of determining the prevalence of loiasis. We develop a joint geostatistical modelling framework for the analysis of Ab and Loascope data to delineate whether an area is safe for MDA. Our results support the use of a two-stage strategy, in which Ab testing is used to identify areas that, with acceptably high probability, are safe or unsafe for MDA, followed by Loascope testing in areas whose safety status is uncertain. This work therefore contributes to the global effort towards the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem by potentially reducing the time and cost required to establish whether an area is safe for MDA.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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