8000 years ago, prior to Neolithic agriculture, Europe was mostly a wooded continent. Since then, its forest cover has been progressively fragmented, so that today it covers less than half of ...Europe's land area, in many cases having been cleared to make way for fields and pasture-land. Establishing the origin of Europe's current, more open land-cover mosaic requires a long-term perspective, for which pollen analysis offers a key tool. In this study we utilise and compare three numerical approaches to transforming pollen data into past forest cover, drawing on >1000
C-dated site records. All reconstructions highlight the different histories of the mixed temperate and the northern boreal forests, with the former declining progressively since ~6000 years ago, linked to forest clearance for agriculture in later prehistory (especially in northwest Europe) and early historic times (e.g. in north central Europe). In contrast, extensive human impact on the needle-leaf forests of northern Europe only becomes detectable in the last two millennia and has left a larger area of forest in place. Forest loss has been a dominant feature of Europe's landscape ecology in the second half of the current interglacial, with consequences for carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity.
1. A major current challenge in ageing research is to understand why senescence rates vary between individuals, populations and species in wild populations. 2. Recent studies clearly illustrate that ...senescent declines in key demographic and life-history traits can be observed in many wild animal systems. 3. Here, we summarize the key challenges facing researchers working to understand senescence in the wild. We concentrate on: (i) limited data availability, (ii) the substantial individual heterogeneity typical of wild populations, (iii) incomplete capture histories, and (iv) trade-offs across the life span. 4. We discuss analytical methods to overcome these challenges. We advocate the use of Capture-Mark-Recapture models to remove likely bias associated with re-sampling rates of less than one. We also illustrate that ageing trajectories may vary between different traits in wild populations. Wherever possible, researchers should examine ageing patterns in multiple traits. 5. Numerous models are available to describe the rate and shape of senescence in free-living populations, but there is currently little consensus regarding which is most appropriate in analyses of wild organisms. 6. We argue that only longitudinal studies of marked or recognizable individuals provide reliable sources of information in the study of senescence. Senescence is a within-individual process and only longitudinal studies allow researchers to separate within-individual ageing patterns from between-individual heterogeneity. 7. We examine two analytical approaches to measure ageing using longitudinal data from wild populations: a jack-knifing approach, well-suited to modelling survival probability, and a mixed-effects model approach. Both methods control for sources of between-individual heterogeneity to allow more accurate measurement of within-individual ageing patterns.
The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal ...variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long‐term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations.
We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well‐suited to the analysis of long‐term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co‐occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts.
We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.
How selection pressures acting within species interact with developmental constraints to shape macro‐evolutionary patterns of species divergence is still poorly understood. In particular, whether or ...not sexual selection affects evolutionary allometry, the increase in trait size with body size across species, of secondary sexual characters, remains largely unknown. In this context, bovid horn size is an especially relevant trait to study because horns are present in both sexes, but the intensity of sexual selection acting on them is expected to vary both among species and between sexes. Using a unique data set of sex‐specific horn size and body mass including 91 species of bovids, we compared the evolutionary allometry between horn size and body mass between sexes while accounting for both the intensity of sexual selection and phylogenetic relationship among species. We found a nonlinear evolutionary allometry where the allometric slope decreased with increasing species body mass. This pattern, much more pronounced in males than in females, suggests either that horn size is limited by some constraints in the largest bovids or is no longer the direct target of sexual selection in very large species.
In animals, physiological mechanisms underlying reproductive and actuarial senescence remain poorly understood. Immunosenescence, the decline in the ability to display an efficient immune response ...with increasing age, is likely to influence both reproductive and actuarial senescence through increased risk of disease. Evidence for such a link has been reported from laboratory animal models but has been poorly investigated in the wild, where variation in resource acquisitions usually drives life-history trade-offs. We investigated immunosenescence patterns over 7 years in both sexes of two contrasting roe deer populations (Capreolus capreolus). We first measured twelve immune markers to obtain a thorough identification of innate and adaptive components of immunity and assessed, from the same individuals, the age-dependent variation observed in parasitic infections. Although the level of innate traits was maintained at old age, the functional innate immune traits declined with increasing age in one of two populations. In both populations, the production of inflammatory markers increased with advancing age. Finally, the adaptive response declined in late adulthood. The increasing parasite burden with age we reported suggests the effective existence of immunosenescence. Age-specific patterns differed between populations but not between sexes, which indicate that habitat quality could shape age-dependent immune phenotype in the wild.
The relationship between individual performance and nonrandom use of habitat is fundamental to ecology; however, empirical tests of this relationship remain limited, especially for higher orders of ...selection like that of the home range. We quantified the association between lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and variables describing lifetime home ranges during the period of maternal care (spring to autumn) for 77 female roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) at Trois-Fontaines, Champagne-Ardenne, France (1976—2000). We maintained population growth rate (adjusted to account for removals of non-focal animals) near rmax, which enabled us to define the fitness—habitat relationship in the absence of density effects. Using a negative binomial model, we showed that a roe deer's incorporation into its home range of habitat components important to food, cover, and edge (meadows, thickets, and increased density of road allowances) was significantly related to LRS. Further, LRS decreased with increasing age of naturally reclaimed meadows at the time of a deer's birth, which may have reflected a cohort effect related to, but not entirely explained by, a decline in quality of meadows through time. Predictive capacity of the selected model, estimated as the median correlation (rs) between predicted and observed LRS among deer of cross-validation samples, was 0.55. The strength of this relationship suggests that processes like selection of the site of a home range during dispersal may play a more important role in determining fitness of individuals than previously thought. Individual fitness of highly sedentary income breeders with high reproductive output such as roe deer should be more dependent on home range quality during the period of maternal care compared to capital breeders with low reproductive output. Identification of the most important habitat attributes to survival and reproduction at low density (low levels of intraspecific competition) may prove useful for defining habitat value ("intrinsic habitat value").
Emerging data in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients suggest that iron deficiency and higher circulating levels of erythropoietin (EPO) stimulate the expression and concomitant cleavage of the ...osteocyte-derived, phosphate-regulating hormone fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), a risk factor for premature mortality. To date, clinical implications of iron deficiency and high EPO levels in the general population, and the potential downstream role of FGF23, are unclear. Therefore, we aimed to determine the associations between iron deficiency and higher EPO levels with mortality, and the potential mediating role of FGF23, in a cohort of community-dwelling subjects.
We analyzed 6,544 community-dwelling subjects (age 53 ± 12 years; 50% males) who participated in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study-a prospective population-based cohort study, of which we used the second survey (2001-2003)-and follow-up was performed for a median of 8 years. We measured circulating parameters of iron status, EPO levels, and plasma total FGF23 levels. Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality. In multivariable linear regression analyses, ferritin (ß = -0.43), transferrin saturation (TSAT) (ß = -0.17), hepcidin (ß = -0.36), soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR; ß = 0.33), and EPO (ß = 0.28) were associated with FGF23 level, independent of potential confounders. During median (interquartile range IQR) follow-up of 8.2 (7.7-8.8) years, 379 (6%) subjects died. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, lower levels of TSAT (hazard ratio HR per 1 standard deviation SD, 0.84; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.75-0.95; P = 0.004) and higher levels of sTfR (HR, 1.15; 95% CI 1.03-1.28; P = 0.01), EPO (HR, 1.17; 95% CI 1.05-1.29; P = 0.004), and FGF23 (HR, 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.32; P < 0.001) were each significantly associated with an increased risk of death, independent of potential confounders. Adjustment for FGF23 levels markedly attenuated the associations of TSAT (HR, 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.01; P = 0.06), sTfR (HR, 1.08; 95% CI 0.96-1.20; P = 0.19), and EPO (HR, 1.10; 95% CI 0.99-1.22; P = 0.08) with mortality. FGF23 remained associated with mortality (HR, 1.15; 95% CI 1.04-1.27; P = 0.008) after adjustment for TSAT, sTfR, and EPO levels. Mediation analysis indicated that FGF23 explained 31% of the association between TSAT and mortality; similarly, FGF23 explained 32% of the association between sTfR and mortality and 48% of the association between EPO and mortality (indirect effect P < 0.05 for all analyses). The main limitations of this study were the observational study design and the absence of data on intact FGF23 (iFGF23), precluding us from discerning whether the current results are attributable to an increase in iFGF23 or in C-terminal FGF23 fragments.
In this study, we found that functional iron deficiency and higher EPO levels were each associated with an increased risk of death in the general population. Our findings suggest that FGF23 could be involved in the association between functional iron deficiency and increased EPO levels and death. Investigation of strategies aimed at correcting iron deficiency and reducing FGF23 levels is warranted.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
REVEALS-based quantitative reconstruction of Holocene vegetation cover (expressed in plant functional types, PFTs) is used in the LANDCLIM project to assess the effect of human-induced land-cover ...change on past climate in NW Europe. Using the Czech Quaternary Pollen Database, this case study evaluates the extent to which selection of data and input parameters for the REVEALS model applications would affect reconstruction outcomes. The REVEALS estimates of PFTs (grid-cell based REVEALS PFT estimates, GB REVEALS PFT-s) are calculated for five time windows of the Holocene using fossil pollen records available in each 1°×1° grid cell of the Czech Republic. The input data and parameters selected for testing are: basin type and size, number of 14C dates used to establish the chronology of the pollen records, number of taxa, and pollen productivity estimates (PPE). We used the Spearman correlation coefficient to test the hypothesis that there is no association between GB REVEALS PFT-s using different data and parameter inputs. The results show that differences in the basin size and type, number of dates, number and type of taxa (entomophilous included or not), and PPE dataset do not affect the rank orders of the GB REVEALS PFT-s significantly, except for the cases when entomophilous taxa are included. It implies that, given careful selection of data and parameter and interpretation of results, REVEALS applications can use pollen records from lakes and bogs of different sizes together for reconstruction of past land cover at the regional to sub-continental spatial scales for purposes such as the study of past land cover–climate interactions. Our study also provides useful criteria to set up protocols for data compilation REVEALS applications of this kind.
► Quantitative reconstruction of past land-cover at the European scale ► Effects of parameters and data condition/quality on the reconstruction outcomes ► Selection of standardized parameters to reconstruct past land-cover
Environmental conditions experienced during early growth and development markedly shape phenotypic traits. Consequently, individuals of the same cohort may show similar life-history tactics ...throughout life. Conditions experienced later in life, however, could fine-tune these initial differences, either increasing (cumulative effect) or decreasing (compensatory effect) the magnitude of cohort variation with increasing age. Our novel comparative analysis that quantifies cohort variation in individual body size trajectories shows that initial cohort variation dissipates throughout life, and that lifetime patterns change both across species with different paces of life and between sexes. We used longitudinal data on body size (mostly assessed using mass) from 11 populations of large herbivores spread along the "slow-fast" continuum of life histories. We first quantified cohort variation using mixture models to identify clusters of cohorts with similar initial size. We identified clear cohort clusters in all species except the one with the slowest pace of life, revealing that variation in early size is structured among cohorts and highlighting typological differences among cohorts. Growth trajectories differed among cohort clusters, highlighting how early size is a fundamental determinant of lifetime growth patterns. In all species, among-cohort variation in size peaked at the start of life, then quickly decreased with age and stabilized around mid-life. Cohort variation was lower in species with a slower than a faster pace of life, and vanished at prime age in species with the slowest pace of life. After accounting for viability selection, compensatory/catch-up growth in early life explained much of the decrease in cohort variation. Females showed less phenotypic variability and stronger compensatory/catch-up growth than males early in life, whereas males showed more progressive changes throughout life. These results confirm that stronger selective pressures for rapid growth make males more vulnerable to poor environmental conditions early in life and less able to recover after a poor start. Our comparative analysis illustrates how variability in growth changes over time in closely related species that span a wide range on the slow-fast continuum, the main axis of variation in life-history strategies of vertebrates.
According to the principle of allocation, trade-offs are inevitable when resources allocated to one biological function are no longer available for other functions. Growth, and to a lesser extent, ...immunity are energetically costly functions that may compete with allocation to reproductive success and survival. However, whether high allocation to growth impairs immune system development during the growing period or immune system performance during adulthood is currently unknown in wild mammals. Using three roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations experiencing contrasting environmental conditions, we tested for potential costs of growth on immune phenotype over both the short-term (during growth), and the long-term (during adulthood) over the course of an individuals’ life. We investigated potential costs on a set of 12 immune traits that reflect both innate and adaptive responses, and compared them between sexes and populations. Although fast growth tended to be associated with low levels of some humoral traits (globulins) during the growing period and some cellular immune traits (i.e. eosinophil and neutrophil counts) during adulthood, evidence for a trade-off between growth and other immune components was limited. Unexpectedly, no detectable growth costs on immunity were found in females from the population experiencing the least favourable environment. We discuss our findings in the light of the complex interplay between resource allocation strategies among reproduction, maintenance and immunity, in relation to local environmental conditions experienced by roe deer.
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