Numerous deep learning applications benefit from multitask learning with multiple regression and classification objectives. In this paper we make the observation that the performance of such systems ...is strongly dependent on the relative weighting between each task's loss. Tuning these weights by hand is a difficult and expensive process, making multi-task learning prohibitive in practice. We propose a principled approach to multi-task deep learning which weighs multiple loss functions by considering the homoscedastic uncertainty of each task. This allows us to simultaneously learn various quantities with different units or scales in both classification and regression settings. We demonstrate our model learning per-pixel depth regression, semantic and instance segmentation from a monocular input image. Perhaps surprisingly, we show our model can learn multi-task weightings and outperform separate models trained individually on each task.
Spaceborne Earth observation is a key technology for flood response, offering valuable information to decision makers on the ground. Very large constellations of small, nano satellites- 'CubeSats' ...are a promising solution to reduce revisit time in disaster areas from days to hours. However, data transmission to ground receivers is limited by constraints on power and bandwidth of CubeSats. Onboard processing offers a solution to decrease the amount of data to transmit by reducing large sensor images to smaller data products. The ESA's recent PhiSat-1 mission aims to facilitate the demonstration of this concept, providing the hardware capability to perform onboard processing by including a power-constrained machine learning accelerator and the software to run custom applications. This work demonstrates a flood segmentation algorithm that produces flood masks to be transmitted instead of the raw images, while running efficiently on the accelerator aboard the PhiSat-1. Our models are trained on WorldFloods: a newly compiled dataset of 119 globally verified flooding events from disaster response organizations, which we make available in a common format. We test the system on independent locations, demonstrating that it produces fast and accurate segmentation masks on the hardware accelerator, acting as a proof of concept for this approach.
European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first ...wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours-such as distancing-which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe's third wave.
Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We ...gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.
ABSTRACT
We present Galaxy Zoo DECaLS: detailed visual morphological classifications for Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey images of galaxies within the SDSS DR8 footprint. Deeper DECaLS images (r = ...23.6 versus r = 22.2 from SDSS) reveal spiral arms, weak bars, and tidal features not previously visible in SDSS imaging. To best exploit the greater depth of DECaLS images, volunteers select from a new set of answers designed to improve our sensitivity to mergers and bars. Galaxy Zoo volunteers provide 7.5 million individual classifications over 314 000 galaxies. 140 000 galaxies receive at least 30 classifications, sufficient to accurately measure detailed morphology like bars, and the remainder receive approximately 5. All classifications are used to train an ensemble of Bayesian convolutional neural networks (a state-of-the-art deep learning method) to predict posteriors for the detailed morphology of all 314 000 galaxies. We use active learning to focus our volunteer effort on the galaxies which, if labelled, would be most informative for training our ensemble. When measured against confident volunteer classifications, the trained networks are approximately 99 per cent accurate on every question. Morphology is a fundamental feature of every galaxy; our human and machine classifications are an accurate and detailed resource for understanding how galaxies evolve.
Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ...ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.
The development and deployment of machine learning systems can be executed easily with modern tools, but the process is typically rushed and means-to-an-end. Lack of diligence can lead to technical ...debt, scope creep and misaligned objectives, model misuse and failures, and expensive consequences. Engineering systems, on the other hand, follow well-defined processes and testing standards to streamline development for high-quality, reliable results. The extreme is spacecraft systems, with mission critical measures and robustness throughout the process. Drawing on experience in both spacecraft engineering and machine learning (research through product across domain areas), we've developed a proven systems engineering approach for machine learning and artificial intelligence: the Machine Learning Technology Readiness Levels framework defines a principled process to ensure robust, reliable, and responsible systems while being streamlined for machine learning workflows, including key distinctions from traditional software engineering, and a lingua franca for people across teams and organizations to work collaboratively on machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies. Here we describe the framework and elucidate with use-cases from physics research to computer vision apps to medical diagnostics.
Abstract Superresolution (SR) aims to increase the resolution of images by recovering detail. Compared to standard interpolation, deep learning-based approaches learn features and their relationships ...to leverage prior knowledge of what low-resolution patterns look like in higher resolution. Deep neural networks can also perform image cross-calibration by learning the systematic properties of the target images. While SR for natural images aims to create perceptually convincing results, SR of scientific data requires careful quantitative evaluation. In this work, we demonstrate that deep learning can increase the resolution and calibrate solar imagers belonging to different instrumental generations. We convert solar magnetic field images taken by the Michelson Doppler Imager (resolution ∼2″ pixel −1 ; space based) and the Global Oscillation Network Group (resolution ∼2.″5 pixel −1 ; ground based) to the characteristics of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (resolution ∼0.″5 pixel −1 ; space based). We also establish a set of performance measurements to benchmark deep-learning-based SR and calibration for scientific applications.
Abstract
The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a NASA multispectral decade-long mission that has been daily producing terabytes of observational data from the Sun, has been recently used as a use ...case to demonstrate the potential of machine-learning methodologies and to pave the way for future deep space mission planning. In particular, the idea of using image-to-image translation to virtually produce extreme ultraviolet channels has been proposed in several recent studies, as a way to both enhance missions with fewer available channels and to alleviate the challenges due to the low downlink rate in deep space. This paper investigates the potential and the limitations of such a deep learning approach by focusing on the permutation of four channels and an encoder–decoder based architecture, with particular attention to how morphological traits and brightness of the solar surface affect the neural network predictions. In this work we want to answer the question: can synthetic images of the solar corona produced via image-to-image translation be used for scientific studies of the Sun? The analysis highlights that the neural network produces high-quality images over 3 orders of magnitude in count rate (pixel intensity) and can generally reproduce the covariance across channels within a 1% error. However, the model performance drastically diminishes in correspondence to extremely high energetic events like flares, and we argue that the reason is related to the rareness of such events posing a challenge to model training.
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