According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. Among ...different impacts, this increase might result in a variation in the frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. We propose a method for the regional-scale evaluation of future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in rainfall regimes. We exploit information on the occurrence of 603 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1981–2010, and daily rainfall data recorded in the same period in the region. Furthermore, we use high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In particular, we consider the mean variations between a 30-year future period (2036–2065) and the reference period 1981–2010 in three variables assumed as proxy for landslide activity: annual rainfall, seasonal cumulated rainfall, and annual maxima of daily rainfall. Based on reliable correlations between landslide occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence for all the municipalities of Calabria. A +45.7% and +21.2% average regional variation in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence is expected in the region for the period 2036–2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. We also investigate the future variations in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on the population of Calabria. We find a +80.2% and +54.5% increase in the impact on the population for the period 2036–2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The proposed method is quantitative and reproducible, thus it can be applied in similar regions, where adequate landslide and rainfall information is available.
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•A method for assessing variations in landslides under the effect of climate changes is proposed.•The method is applied in a Southern Italian region, and it is totally replicable.•A historical landslide catalogue and climate projections for two scenarios are used.•Changes in the population exposure to landslides are also evaluated.Frequency and impacts of landslides are expected to increase in the study area.
Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate prediction of landslide occurrence requires reliable thresholds, which ...need to be properly validated before their use in operational warning systems. We exploited a catalogue of 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in at least 223 shallow landslides in Sicily, southern Italy, in the 11-year period 2002–2011, to determine regional event duration–cumulated event rainfall (ED) thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence. We computed ED thresholds for different exceedance probability levels and determined the uncertainty associated to the thresholds using a consolidated bootstrap nonparametric technique. We further determined subregional thresholds, and we studied the role of lithology and seasonal periods in the initiation of shallow landslides in Sicily. Next, we validated the regional rainfall thresholds using 29 rainfall conditions that have resulted in 42 shallow landslides in Sicily in 2012. We based the validation on contingency tables, skill scores, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 50%. Validation of rainfall thresholds is hampered by lack of information on landslide occurrence. Therefore, we considered the effects of variations in the contingencies and the skill scores caused by lack of information. Based on the results obtained, we propose a general methodology for the objective identification of a threshold that provides an optimal balance between maximization of correct predictions and minimization of incorrect predictions, including missed and false alarms. We expect that the methodology will increase the reliability of rainfall thresholds, fostering the operational use of validated rainfall thresholds in operational early warning system for regional shallow landslide forecasting.
•We collected 229 rainfall events with landslides in Sicily between 2002 and 2012.•We define empirical regional and sub-regional rainfall thresholds.•We validate the thresholds using contingency table, skill scores and ROC analysis.•We propose a method for the objective identification of an “optimal” threshold.•We discuss the weakness of the validation procedure due to the lack of information.
In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. ...In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.
Only a few studies have investigated the geographical and temporal variations in the frequency and distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and the consequences of the variations on landslide ...risk. Lack of information limits the possibility to evaluate the impact of environmental and climate changes on landslide frequency and risk. Here, we exploit detailed historical information on landslides and rainfall in Calabria, southern Italy, between 1921 and 2010 to study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and in their impact on the population. We exploit a catalogue with information on historical landslides from June 1920 to December 2010, and daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges in the same period, to reconstruct 448 493 rainfall events (RE). Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL), where an REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period, (ii) the monthly distribution of the REL has changed in the observation period, and (iii) the average and maximum cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent 30-year period 1981–2010 are lower than the rainfall necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the RE that triggered landslides has remained the same. We attribute the changes to variations in the rainfall conditions and to an increased vulnerability of the territory. To investigate the variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria with the size of the population in the municipalities measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. We adopted two strategies; the first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL / P, and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. The analysis has revealed a complex pattern of changes in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria in the recent past, with areas where IREL and RREL have increased, and other areas where they have decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts. The complexity of the changes in the frequency and impact of rainfall-induced landslides observed in Calabria suggests that it remains difficult and uncertain to predict the possible variations in the frequency and impact of landslide in response to future climatic and environmental changes.
Systematic and timely documentation of triggered (i.e. event) landslides is fundamental to build extensive datasets worldwide that may help define and/or validate trends in response to climate ...change. More in general, preparation of landslide inventories is a crucial activity since it provides the basic data for any subsequent analysis. In this work we present an event landslide inventory map (E-LIM) that was prepared through a systematic reconnaissance field survey in about 1 month after an extreme rainfall event hit an area of about 5000 km
in the Marche-Umbria regions (central Italy). The inventory reports evidence of 1687 triggered landslides in an area of ~550 km
. All slope failures were classified according to type of movement and involved material, and documented with field pictures, wherever possible. The database of the inventory described in this paper as well as the collection of selected field pictures associated with each feature is publicly available at figshare.
Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for ...socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed - based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event - to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results.
Analyses of historical records of landslides and climate variables are useful tools to search for correlations between damaging landslide events and their triggers. In this work, we investigate the ...temporal and geographical relationships between two long-term historical series of catalogued landslide occurrences and daily rainfall data in Umbria, a central Italian region, from 1928 to 2001. Moreover, we search for changes in the frequency and density of landslides, and in the characteristics of the associated rainfall events. Using a consolidated approach, partially modified, we find that the rainfall events that have produced rainfall-induced landslides in Umbria changed in space and time during observation period and between two considered sub-periods (1928–1975 and 1976–2001). In particular, we find that: (i) the monthly distribution of landslides associated with rainfall events is quite different than that of all landslides in the regional catalogue; (ii) the spatial and temporal distribution of REL changed from the older (most events occurred in winter) to the recent period (most events occurred in autumn); (iii) the recent most rainfall events associated with landslides are characterized by a lower cumulated rainfall and a shorter duration, sign of an increased propensity of the regional territory to produce landslides over time.
...a search of the keywords “landslide”, “warning” and “system” in the abstracts of all articles that have ever been published in the Division's NHESS journal produced 698 results. Within this ...framework, this special issue was initially conceived to collect the most relevant works presented to the session SSS9.5/NH3.13 on “Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception” within the 2017 General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A broad range of conditions is covered, ranging from case studies characterized by scarcity (Shi et al., 2018) to the abundance of data (Devoli et al., 2018; Vaz et al., 2018) and, in some cases, also the measurement of hydrologic (Segoni et al., 2018a) or geotechnical variables (Canli et al., 2018; Salvatici et al., 2018) to strengthen the forecasting models. ...the works included in the special issue describe early warning systems at very different stages of employment. The most debated unresolved issues in rainfall threshold research include the following the definition of objective and automatic procedures to define the thresholds (Staley et al., 2013; Segoni et al., 2014; Iadanza et al., 2016; Vessia et al., 2016; Rossi et al., 2017; Melillo et al., 2018); the need for taking into account the hydrological conditions of the hillslope system with more complex approaches (Posner et al., 2015; Bogaard and Greco, 2018); the evaluation and quantification of diverse uncertainties (Nikolopoulos et al., 2015; Destro et al., 2017; Marra et al., 2017; Rossi et al., 2017; Marra, 2018; Peres et al., 2018); the importance of validation procedures (Staley et al., 2013; Gariano et al., 2015; Lagomarsino et al., 2015); the use of rainfall data gathered from ground-based radars or satellites (Robbins, 2016; Destro et al., 2017; Rossi et al., 2017; Brunetti et al., 2018); the implementation of the thresholds into hazard management procedures and early warning systems (Kirshbaum et al. 2015; Rosi et al., 2015; Piciullo et al., 2017, 2018; Krøgli et al., 2018; Wei et al., 2018; Pecoraro et al., 2018).
Landslides are among the most dangerous natural hazards, particularly in developing countries, where ground observations for operative early warning systems are lacking. In these areas, remote ...sensing can represent an important detection and monitoring process to predict landslide occurrence in space and time, particularly satellite rainfall products that have improved in terms of accuracy and resolution in recent times. Surprisingly, only a few studies have investigated the capability and effectiveness of these products in landslide prediction in reducing the impact of this hazard on the population. We have performed a comparative study of ground- and satellite-based rainfall products for landslide prediction in India by using empirical rainfall thresholds derived from the analysis of historical landslide events. Specifically, we have tested Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and SM2RAIN-ASCAT satellite rainfall products, and their merging, at daily and hourly temporal resolution, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) daily rain gauge observations. A catalogue of 197 rainfall-induced landslides that occurred throughout India in the 13-year period between April 2007 and October 2019 has been used. Results indicate that satellite rainfall products outperform ground observations thanks to their better spatial (0.1∘ vs. 0.25∘) and temporal (hourly vs. daily) resolutions. The better performance is obtained through the merged GPM and SM2RAIN-ASCAT products, even though improvements in reproducing the daily rainfall (e.g. overestimation of the number of rainy days) are likely needed. These findings open a new avenue for using such satellite products in landslide early warning systems, particularly in poorly gauged areas.
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