Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Helgason, Agnar; Jonsson, Hakon ...
The New England journal of medicine,
06/2020, Letnik:
382, Številka:
24
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Despite timely implementation of testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, a contact-tracing scheme, and social-distancing measures, infection has spread in Iceland. However, there was no detected increase in ...the proportion of infected persons between March 13 and April 4, 2020.
1 Institute for Experimental Pathology, University of Iceland, Keldur v/vesturlandsveg, IS-112 Reykjavík, Iceland
2 Laboratory of the Chief Veterinary Officer, Keldur, Iceland
3 Bethesda, Maryland, ...USA
Correspondence Gudmundur Georgsson ggeorgs{at}hi.is
In 1978, a rigorous programme was implemented to stop the spread of, and subsequently eradicate, sheep scrapie in Iceland. Affected flocks were culled, premises were disinfected and, after 23 years, restocked with lambs from scrapie-free areas. Between 1978 and 2004, scrapie recurred on 33 farms. Nine of these recurrences occurred 1421 years after culling, apparently as the result of environmental contamination, but outside entry could not always be absolutely excluded. Of special interest was one farm with a small, completely self-contained flock where scrapie recurred 18 years after culling, 2 years after some lambs had been housed in an old sheep-house that had never been disinfected. Epidemiological investigation established with near certitude that the disease had not been introduced from the outside and it is concluded that the agent may have persisted in the old sheep-house for at least 16 years.
Institute for Experimental Pathology, University of Iceland, Keldur, IS-112 Reykjavík, Iceland 1
Author for correspondence: Astridur Palsdottir.Fax +354 5673979. e-mail astripal{at}rhi.hi.is
The ...association between scrapie and polymorphism of the prion protein (PrP) gene was studied in the Icelandic sheep breed. Polymorphism of the three codons, 136, 154 and 171, that are important for scrapie susceptibility was determined. A Bsp HI restriction analysis was used to study the alleles of codons 136 and 154, while density gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) was used to analyse codon 171 and detect new polymorphisms. The PrP allelic variant, VRQ (amino acids at codons 136, 154 and 171), was found to be highly statistically associated with scrapie, whereas the allelic variant, AHQ, was never found in scrapie-affected animals, a finding that is statistically significant. Iceland has a few scrapie-free regions, which are a part of a quarantine network. Homozygotes for the VRQ variant were found there at a low frequency, indicating that genetic susceptibility is not enough for scrapie to develop and further evidence for the infectious nature of the disease. A comparison of PrP genotypes between sheep outside and within the scrapie-free zones revealed an increase in the AHQ allelic variant in the latter. No polymorphism was found at codon 171 in a total of 932 sheep studied, all individuals having the glutamine allele. Two novel, rare PrP alleles were found using DGGE at codons 138 and 151, i.e. S138N and R151C. Their relevance to scrapie is still unclear, but the former was found in scrapie-affected sheep as well as healthy sheep, whereas the latter was only found in healthy sheep.
Our aim was to create a general-purpose relational data format and analysis tools to provide an efficient and coherent framework for working with large volumes of DNA sequence data.
For this purpose ...we developed the GORpipe software system. It is based on a genomic ordered architecture and uses a declarative query language that combines features from SQL and shell pipe syntax in a novel manner. The system can for instance be used to annotate sequence variants, find genomic spatial overlap between various types of genomic features, filter and aggregate them in various ways.
The GORpipe software is freely available for non-commercial academic usage and can be downloaded from www.nextcode.com/gorpipe CONTACT: hakon@wuxinextcode.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
We describe the manifestations and occurrence of hypotrichosis in arctic foxes and compare it to the Samson character in red foxes. During 1979–2005, we collected carcasses of both normal and ...hypotrichotic arctic foxes from foxhunters in Iceland for macroscopic and microscopic examination and study of demography. We obtained live pups for breeding and transmission experiments in captivity during 1985–1992. Placental scar counts showed that hypotrichotic vixens were more fertile than normal vixens and generally all their pups were hypotrichotic. Fertility in hypotrichotic vixens was positively correlated with winter air temperature but not in normal vixens. Hypotrichotic males were less likely to breed than normal males and probably had a higher mortality rate than either hypotrichotic females or normal foxes. Hypotrichosis can be transmitted between adult foxes. Microscopic examination revealed prominent chronic inflammation of the dermis in hypotrichotic specimens, degenerative changes, vacuolisation and necrosis of hair follicles. Hypotrichosis persists in coastal areas with mild winters and may become more common with global warming.
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human ...behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons.
The transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases.
We found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Rˆ=1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Rˆ=0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Rˆ=0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Rˆ=1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Rˆ=0.74).
We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.
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Abstract
A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is ...to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.
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