The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation ...from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical–biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981–2009), and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication). Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981–2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS – which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers – and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the interannual variability of H is explained by the combination of four predictors: the annual riverine nitrate load (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (Ts), the amount of semi-labile organic matter accumulated in the sediments (C) and the sea surface temperature during late summer (Tf). Partial regression indicates that the climatic impact on hypoxia is almost as important as that of eutrophication. Accumulation of organic matter in the sediments introduces an important inertia in the recovery process after eutrophication, with a typical timescale of 9.3 yr. Seasonal fluctuations and the heterogeneous spatial distribution complicate the monitoring of bottom hypoxia, leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. In particular, it appears that the recovery reported in the literature after 1995 was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses the urgent need for a dedicated monitoring effort in the Black Sea NWS focused on the areas and months concerned by recurrent hypoxic events.
Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) are recognized as major drivers of biodiversity loss, but few causal relationships between IAS and species declines have been documented. In this study, we compare ...the distribution (Belgium and Britain) and abundance (Belgium, Britain and Switzerland) of formerly common and widespread native ladybirds before and after the arrival of Harmonia axyridis, a globally rapidly expanding IAS. Location: Europe Methods: We used generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) to assess the distribution trends of eight conspicuous and historically widespread and common species of ladybird within Belgium and Britain before and after the arrival of H. axyridis. The distribution data were collated largely through public participatory surveys but verified by a recognized expert. We also used GLMMs to model trends in the abundance of ladybirds using data collated through systematic surveys of deciduous trees in Belgium, Britain and Switzerland. Results: Five (Belgium) and seven (Britain) of eight species studied show substantial declines attributable to the arrival of H. axyridis. Indeed, the two-spot ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, declined by 30% (Belgium) and 44% (Britain) over 5 years after the arrival of H. axyridis. Trends in ladybird abundance revealed similar patterns of declines across three countries. Main conclusion: Together, these analyses show H. axyridis to be displacing native ladybirds with high niche overlap, probably through predation and competition. This finding provides strong evidence of a causal link between the arrival of an IAS and decline in native biodiversity. Rapid biotic homogenization at the continental scale could impact on the resilience of ecosystems and severely diminish the services they deliver.
To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and ...cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤— 0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤— 6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % 95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4-30.9, high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69-2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0-25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7-24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants 47.2 % (CI 41.8-52.5) in 25-29 years-olds. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.
The sources of the majority of the high-energy astrophysical neutrinos observed with the IceCube neutrino telescope at the South Pole are unknown. So far, only a flaring gamma-ray blazar was ...compellingly associated with the emission of high-energy neutrinos. However, several studies suggest that the neutrino emission from the gamma-ray blazar population only accounts for a small fraction of the total astrophysical neutrino flux. In this work we probe the production of high-energy neutrinos in the cores of active galactic nuclei (AGN), induced by accelerated cosmic rays in the accretion disk region. We present a likelihood analysis based on eight years of IceCube data, searching for a cumulative neutrino signal from three AGN samples created for this work. The neutrino emission is assumed to be proportional to the accretion disk luminosity estimated from the soft x-ray flux. Next to the observed soft x-ray flux, the objects for the three samples have been selected based on their radio emission and infrared color properties. For the largest sample in this search, an excess of high-energy neutrino events with respect to an isotropic background of atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos is found, corresponding to a post-trial significance of 2.60σ. If interpreted as a genuine signal with the assumptions of a proportionality of x-ray and neutrino fluxes and a model for the subthreshold flux distribution, then this observation implies that at 100 TeV, 27%–100% of the observed neutrinos arise from particle acceleration in the core of AGN at 1σ confidence interval.
A new dataset of emissions of trace gases and particles resulting from biomass burning has been developed for the historical and the recent period (1900–2005). The purpose of this work is to provide ...a consistent gridded emissions dataset of atmospheric chemical species from 1900 to 2005 for chemistry-climate simulations. The inventory is built in two steps. First, fire emissions are estimated for the recent period (1997–2005) using satellite products (GBA2000 burnt areas and ATSR fire hotspots); the temporal and spatial distribution of the CO
2 emissions for the 1997–2005 period is estimated through a calibration of ATSR fire hotspots. The historical inventory, covering the 1900–2000 period on a decadal basis, is derived from the historical reconstruction of burned areas from
Mouillot and Field (2005). The historical emissions estimates are forced, for each main ecosystem, to agree with the recent inventory estimates, ensuring consistency between past and recent emissions.
The methodology used for estimating the fire emissions is discussed, together with the time evolution of biomass burning emissions during the 20th century, first at the global scale and then for specific regions. The results are compared with the distributions provided by other inventories and results of inverse modeling studies.
The Sun provides an excellent target for studying spin-dependent dark matter-proton scattering due to its high matter density and abundant hydrogen content. Dark matter particles from the Galactic ...halo can elastically interact with Solar nuclei, resulting in their capture and thermalization in the Sun. The captured dark matter can annihilate into Standard Model particles including an observable flux of neutrinos. Here, we present the results of a search for low-energy (<500 GeV) neutrinos correlated with the direction of the Sun using 7 years of IceCube data. This work utilizes, for the first time, new optimized cuts to extend IceCube's sensitivity to dark matter mass down to 5 GeV. We find no significant detection of neutrinos from the Sun. Our observations exclude capture by spin-dependent dark matter-proton scattering with cross section down to a few times 10-41 cm2, assuming there is equilibrium with annihilation into neutrinos/antineutrinos for dark matter masses between 5 GeV and 100 GeV. These are the strongest constraints at GeV energies for dark matter annihilation directly to neutrinos.
We report in detail on searches for eV-scale sterile neutrinos, in the context of a 3 + 1 model, using eight years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Telescope. By analyzing the reconstructed energies ...and zenith angles of 305,735 atmospheric νμ and νμ events we construct confidence intervals in two analysis spaces: sin2 (2θ24) vs Δm241 under the conservative assumption θ34 = 0; and sin2 (2θ24) vs sin 2 (2θ34) given sufficiently large Δ m241 that fast oscillation features are unresolvable. Detailed discussions of the event selection, systematic uncertainties, and fitting procedures are presented. No strong evidence for sterile neutrinos is found, and the best-fit likelihood is consistent with the no sterile neutrino hypothesis with a p value of 8% in the first analysis space and 19% in the second.
To expand on previous reports of synergy between polymyxin B (PMB) and minocycline (MIN) against Acinetobacter baumannii; and to gain insight into the qualitative and quantitative determinants of ...their synergy.
A semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model was developed on the basis of data from in vitro time-kill experiments with determination of resistant bacterial count to describe the effects of PMB and MIN alone and in combination. The model was enriched by complementary experiments providing information on the characteristics of the resistant subpopulation.
The model successfully described the data and made possible quantification of the strength of interaction between the two drugs and formulation of hypotheses about the mechanisms of the observed interaction. The effect of the combination was driven by MIN, with PMB acting as an helper drug; simulations at clinically achievable concentrations showed that 1.5 mg/L MIN +0.2 mg/L PMB is expected to produce sustained killing over 30 hours, while 0.3 mg/L MIN +1 mg/L PMB is met by bacterial regrowth. Interaction equations showed that maximal synergy is reached for PMB concentrations ≥0.1 mg/L and MIN concentrations ≥1 mg/L.
Semi-mechanistic PK/PD modelling was used to investigate the quantitative determinants of synergy between PMB and MIN on a PMB-resistant A. baumannii strain. The developed model, improving on usual study techniques, showed asymmetry in the drug interaction, as PMB acted mostly as a helper to MIN, and provided simulations as a tool for future studies.
Olive oil provides a mixture of lipids and antioxidant nutrients which may help preventing age-related diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD). However, little is known about the ...associations between olive oil consumption and the risk of AMD.
To examine associations between olive oil use and AMD prevalence in elderly subjects.
Alienor (Antioxydants, Lipides Essentiels, Nutrition et maladies OculaiRes) is a population-based study on eye diseases performed in elderly residents of Bordeaux (France). In 1999-2000, frequencies of consumption of main categories of dietary fats used were collected. In 2006-2088, AMD was graded from non mydriatic retinal photographs into three exclusive stages: no AMD, early AMD, and late AMD. Two categories of preferred dietary fat used (olive oil, n-3 rich oils, n-6 rich oils, mixed oils, butter and margarine) were defined: "no use" and "regular use" (using fat for spreading and/or cooking and/or dressing). Associations of AMD with each fat use were estimated using Generalized Estimating Equation logistic regressions models.
Our study included 654 subjects (1269 eyes) with complete data (n = 268 eyes with early AMD and n = 56 with late AMD). After adjustment for potential confounders, regular use of olive oil was significantly associated with a decreased risk of late AMD (odds ratio OR = 0.44, 95% confidence interval CI: 0.21;0.91). In contrast, regular use of olive oil was not significantly associated with early AMD (OR = 0.84, 95%CI: 0.59;1.21). No associations were found between regular consumption of n-3 rich oils, n-6 rich oils, mixed oils, butter and margarine and AMD, whatever the stage.
This study suggests a protective effect of olive oil consumption for late AMD in this elderly community-dwelling population. Characterization of the mediating nutrients deserves further research.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
African biomass burning emission inventories for gaseous and particulate species have been constructed at a resolution of 1 km by 1km with daily coverage for the 2000-2007 period. These inventories ...are higher than the GFED2 inventories, which are currently widely in use. Evaluation specifically focusing on combustion aerosol has been carried out with the ORISAM-TM4 global chemistry transport model which includes a detailed aerosol module. This paper compares modeled results with measurements of surface BC concentrations and scattering coefficients from the AMMA Enhanced Observations period, aerosol optical depths and single scattering albedo from AERONET sunphotometers, LIDAR vertical distributions of extinction coefficients as well as satellite data. Aerosol seasonal and interannual evolutions over the 2004-2007 period observed at regional scale and more specifically at the Djougou (Benin) and Banizoumbou (Niger) AMMA/IDAF sites are well reproduced by our global model, indicating that our biomass burning emission inventory appears reasonable.
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