Summary Background The current American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) staging system does not have sufficient details to encompass the variety of ...soft-tissue sarcomas, and available prognostic methods need refinement. We aimed to develop and externally validate two prediction nomograms for overall survival and distant metastases in patients with soft-tissue sarcoma in their extremities. Methods Consecutive patients who had had an operation at the Istituto Nazionale Tumori (Milan, Italy), from Jan 1, 1994, to Dec 31, 2013, formed the development cohort. Three cohorts of patient data from the Institut Gustave Roussy (Villejuif, France; from Jan 1, 1996, to May 15, 2012), Mount Sinai Hospital (Toronto, ON, Canada; from Jan 1, 1994, to Dec 31, 2013), and the Royal Marsden Hospital (London, UK; from Jan 1, 2006, to Dec 31, 2013) formed the external validation cohorts. We developed the nomogram for overall survival using a Cox multivariable model, and a Fine and Gray multivariable model for the distant metastases nomogram. We applied a backward procedure for variables selection for both nomograms. We assessed nomogram model performance by examining overall accuracy (Brier score), calibration (calibration plots and Hosmer–Lemeshow calibration test), and discrimination (Harrell C index). We plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the two nomograms. Findings 1452 patients were included in the development cohort, with 420 patients included in the French validation cohort, 1436 patients in the Canadian validation cohort, and 444 patients in the UK validation cohort. In the development cohort, 10-year overall survival was 72·9% (95% CI 70·2–75·7) and 10-year crude cumulative incidence of distant metastases was 25·0% (95% CI 22·7–27·5). For the overall survival nomogram, the variables selected applying a backward procedure in the multivariable Cox model (patient's age, tumour size, Fédération Française des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer FNCLCC grade, and histological subtype) had a significant effect on overall survival. The same variables, except for patient age, were selected for the distant metastases nomogram. In the development cohort, the Harrell C index for overall survival was 0·767 (95% CI 0·743–0·789) and for distant metastases was 0·759 (0·736–0·781). In the validation cohorts, the Harrell C index for overall survival and distant metastases were 0·698 (0·638–0·754) and 0·652 (0·605–0·699; French), 0·775 (0·754–0·796) and 0·744 (0·720–0·768; Canadian), and 0·762 (0·720–0·806) and 0·749 (0·707–0·791; UK). The two nomograms both performed well in terms of discrimination (ability to distinguish between patients who have had an event from those who have not) and calibration (accuracy of nomogram prediction) when applied to the validation cohorts. Interpretation Our nomograms are reliable prognostic methods that can be used to predict overall survival and distant metastases in patients after surgical resection of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities. These nomograms can be offered to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis, strengthen the prognosis-based decision making, enhance patient stratification, and inform patients in the clinic. Funding None.
Summary Background Previous trials from our group suggested an overall survival benefit with five cycles of adjuvant full-dose epirubicin plus ifosfamide in localised high-risk soft-tissue sarcoma of ...the extremities or trunk wall, and no difference in overall survival benefit between three cycles versus five cycles of the same neoadjuvant regimen. We aimed to show the superiority of the neoadjuvant administration of histotype-tailored regimen to standard chemotherapy. Methods For this international, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3, multicentre trial, patients were enrolled from 32 hospitals in Italy, Spain, France, and Poland. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older with localised, high-risk (high malignancy grade, 5 cm or longer in diameter, and deeply located according to the investing fascia), soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall and belonging to one of five histological subtypes: high-grade myxoid liposarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, synovial sarcoma, malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumour, and undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive three cycles of full-dose standard chemotherapy (epirubicin 60 mg/m2 per day short infusion, days 1 and 2 plus ifosfamide 3 g/m2 per day days 1, 2, and 3, repeated every 21 days) or histotype-tailored chemotherapy: for high-grade myxoid liposarcoma, trabectedin 1·3 mg/m2 via 24-h continuous infusion, repeated every 21 days; for leiomyosarcoma, gemcitabine 1800 mg/m2 on day 1 intravenously over 180 min plus dacarbazine 500 mg/m2 on day 1 intravenously over 20 min, repeated every 14 days; for synovial sarcoma, high-dose ifosfamide 14 g/m2 , given over 14 days via an external infusion pump, every 28 days; for malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumour, intravenous etoposide 150 mg/m2 per day (days 1, 2, and 3) plus intravenous ifosfamide 3 g/m2 per day (days 1, 2, and 3), repeated every 21 days; and for undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma, gemcitabine 900 mg/m2 on days 1 and 8 intravenously over 90 min plus docetaxel 75 mg/m2 on day 8 intravenously over 1 h, repeated every 21 days. Randomisation was stratified by administration of preoperative radiotherapy and by country of enrolment. Computer-generated random lists were prepared by use of permuted balanced blocks of size 4 and 6 in random sequence. An internet-based randomisation system ensured concealment of the treatment assignment until the patient had been registered into the system. No masking of treatment assignments was done. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival. The primary and safety analyses were planned in the intention-to-treat population. We did yearly futility analyses on an intention-to-treat basis. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01710176 , and with the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials, number EUDRACT 2010–023484–17, and is closed to patient entry. Findings Between May 19, 2011, and May 13, 2016, 287 patients were randomly assigned to a group (145 to standard chemotherapy and 142 to histotype-tailored chemotherapy), all of whom, except one patient assigned to standard chemotherapy, were included in the efficacy analysis (97 34% with undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma; 64 22% with high-grade myxoid liposarcoma; 70 24% with synovial sarcoma; 27 9% with malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumour; and 28 10% with leiomyosarcoma). At the third futility analysis, with a median follow-up of 12·3 months (IQR 2·75–28·20), the projected disease-free survival at 46 months was 62% (95% CI 48–77) in the standard chemotherapy group and 38% (22–55) in the histotype-tailored chemotherapy group (stratified log-rank p=0·004; hazard ratio 2·00, 95% CI 1·22–3·26; p=0·006). The most common grade 3 or higher adverse events in the standard chemotherapy group (n=125) were neutropenia (107 86%), anaemia (24 19%), and thrombocytopenia (21 17%); the most common grade 3 or higher adverse event in the histotype-tailored chemotherapy group (n=114) was neutropenia (30 26%). No treatment-related deaths were reported in both groups. In agreement with the Independent Data Monitoring Committee, the study was closed to patient entry after the third futility analysis. Interpretation In a population of patients with high-risk soft-tissue sarcoma, we did not show any benefit of a neoadjuvant histotype-tailored chemotherapy regimen over the standard chemotherapy regimen. The benefit seen with the standard chemotherapy regimen suggests that this benefit might be the added value of neoadjuvant chemotherapy itself in patients with high-risk soft-tissue sarcoma. Funding European Union grant (Eurosarc FP7 278472).
