In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect ...substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting).
To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries.
Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses:
) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and
) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y.
On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1 and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions.
These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1756.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
AbstractObjectiveTo assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide.DesignTwo stage time series analysis.Setting406 cities in 20 ...countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network.PopulationDeaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period.Main outcome measuresDaily total mortality (all or non-external causes only).ResultsA total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively.ConclusionsResults suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
Background: The long-term effects of occupational injury (OI) on psychiatric diseases are unclear. This study assessed and compared the effects of OI, no injury (control), and non-OI (NOI) on the ...development of psychiatric diseases.Methods: We used Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database to investigate the incidence of psychiatric disorders in OI, NOI, and control groups. The subjects were aged 20–50 years, actively employed in 2000, and did not have history of injury or psychiatric disorders. All subjects were followed from 2000 and were classified into OI, NOI, and control groups according to occurrence of target injury later on. Individuals in each group were matched by age, sex, insurance premium before the index date, and year of the index date. Psychiatric disease-free days were compared among the groups using survival analysis and Cox regression.Results: We included a total of 12,528 patients for final analysis, with 4,176 in each group. Compared with the control group, the OI group had an increased occurrence of trauma and stress-related disorder, depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and alcohol and other substance dependence. These increases were similar to those in the NOI group. Elevated cumulative incidence rate of any psychiatric disorders was observed among those with OI or NOI up to 10 years after injury.Conclusion: We confirmed that OI and NOI induced psychiatric disorders. These findings highlight the need for workers’ compensation mechanisms to consider long-term psychological care among injured workers.
Objective
Short sleep duration is common among nurses. Sleep restriction has been associated with musculoskeletal discomfort. However, studies on the effect of short sleep duration on chronic neck ...and shoulder discomfort in nurses have been lacking. The aim of this study was to determine whether short sleep duration is related to chronic neck and shoulder discomfort.
Methods
We conducted a cross‐sectional survey of female nurses in secondary referral health centers in Taiwan. We applied stratified sampling based on region (north, central, south, and east) to select representative centers for this study. A self‐administered structured questionnaire, including demographic data, the psychological working environment, and musculoskeletal symptoms, was administered to nurses. Multiple logistic regression and population attributable risk analyses were performed to assess the effect of average sleeping hours per working day on chronic neck and shoulder discomfort.
Results
A total of 1602 (78.9%) questionnaires were eligible for final analysis. The prevalence rates of chronic neck and shoulder discomfort were 33.9% and 34.7%, respectively. Population attributable risk estimation revealed that a sleep duration of <7 hours per working day was the most crucial factor for chronic neck and shoulder discomfort in the nurses, accounting for 8.8% of chronic neck discomfort and 8.6% of chronic shoulder discomfort respectively.
Conclusion
Our study found that sleep duration on working days was associated with chronic neck and shoulder discomfort in female nurses. Further interventions are warranted for maintaining nurses’ sleep hygiene.
Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the ...temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location.
Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the ...whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council.
Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role ...of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.
We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.
We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.
A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.
Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
This study evaluated risks of emergency room visit (ERV) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in 2005-2011, among patients with cardiologic and metabolic syndromes (CMS), in association with ...ambient environments.
Pooled and area-specific weather related cumulative six-day (lags 0 to 5) relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of ERV for OHCA were evaluated for CMS cases, using distributed lag nonlinear models and multivariate meta-analytical second-stage model in association with the daily average temperatures and daily concentrations of air pollutants.
ERV risk increased as average temperature dropped to <27°C. At the mean temperature of 14°C, the cumulative six-day RRs of ERV were 1.73 (95% CI: 1.22, 2.46) for all OHCA patients, 1.74 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.84) for OHCA patients younger than 65 years old, and 1.99 (95% CI: 1.03, 3.81) for subjects with pre-existing hypertension. High temperature was also associated with elevated ERV of OHCA. Increased ERV risks in cases with pre-existing hypertension and diabetes mellitus were also associated with concentrations of air pollutants in northern Taiwan.
Our data provided evidences to clinicians, emerging medical services and public health that the ERV risk for OHCA patients is greater at low temperature than at high temperature. Patients with cardio and metabolic disorders need to pay greater attention to low temperature and avoid heat wave.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Impaired lung function is associated with morbidity and mortality in the elderly. However, there is a paucity of data regarding the long-term effects of particulate matter (PM) on lung function among ...the elderly. This study evaluated the exposure-response relationship between ambient PM and different lung function indices among the elderly in Taiwan. A cross-sectional survey of individuals aged ≥65 years was conducted in Taiwan from October 2015 to September 2016. Those who attended the annual health examination for the elderly in five hospitals of varying background PM concentrations were enrolled. The long-term (2015 annual mean concentration) exposure to air pollution was estimated by the Kriging method at the residence of each subject. The association between ambient PM exposure and lung function was evaluated by linear regression modeling, with adjustments for age, sex, height, weight, educational attainment, presence of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking status, season, and co-pollutants. There were 1241 subjects (mean age, 70.5 years). The mean residential PM
and PM
in 2015 was 26.02 and 18.01 μg/m
, respectively. After adjustments for confounders and co-pollutants, the FVC decrease was best associated with fine particles (PM
), whereas the FEV
, FEF
, FEF
and FEF
decreases were best associated with coarse particles (PM
). An IQR (10 μg/m
) increase in PM
decreased FVC by 106.38 ml (4.47%), while an IQR (7.29 μg/m
) increase in PM
decreased FEV
and FEF
by 91.23 ml (4.85%) and 104.44 ml/s (5.58%), respectively. Among the Taiwanese elderly, long-term PM
exposure mainly decreases the vital capacity of lung function. Moreover, PM
has a stronger negative effect on the function of conductive airways than PM
.
Purpose
To identify factors responsible for hospital health care workers' intention to leave their job during the COVID‐19 pandemic.
Design
A cross‐sectional study was performed.
Methods
A ...self‐administered questionnaire was delivered to solicit hospital health care workers' demographics, intention to leave, workplace environment, and changes related to COVID‐19 from July to November 2020 in Taiwan. Principal component analysis was performed to compare group‐related factors. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for the intention of health care workers to leave their job.
Findings
Among the 1209 health care workers (mean age, 36.3 years) who participated in the study, intention to leave the job was found to be related to factors relating to COVID‐19, including perceived risk, affected social relationships, and increased workload and job stress, after adjustment for demographic and work factors. Supportive administration/management were protective factors against leaving the job. These results were supported by sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
Our findings suggest that the intention of health care workers to leave their job during a pandemic is related to potentially modifiable factors relating to the infection itself and work environment.
Clinical relevance
High perceived risk of COVID‐19, affected social relationaops, and increased workload and job stress were positively associated with the intention of health care workers to leave their job, whereas supportive administration and management were protective factors against leaving the job. Development of workplace strategies is important to help mitigate these above factors, improve psychological wellbeing, and promote workforce stability.
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