Wildfire activity in North American boreal forests increased during the last decades of the 20th century, partly owing to ongoing human-caused climatic changes. How these changes affect regional fire ...regimes (annual area burned, seasonality, and number, size, and severity of fires) remains uncertain as data available to explore fire–climate–vegetation interactions have limited temporal depth. Here we present a Holocene reconstruction of fire regime, combining lacustrine charcoal analyses with past drought and fire-season length simulations to elucidate the mechanisms linking long-term fire regime and climatic changes. We decomposed fire regime into fire frequency (FF) and biomass burned (BB) and recombined these into a new index to assess fire size (FS) fluctuations. Results indicated that an earlier termination of the fire season, due to decreasing summer radiative insolation and increasing precipitation over the last 7.0 ky, induced a sharp decrease in FF and BB ca . 3.0 kyBP toward the present. In contrast, a progressive increase of FS was recorded, which is most likely related to a gradual increase in temperatures during the spring fire season. Continuing climatic warming could lead to a change in the fire regime toward larger spring wildfires in eastern boreal North America.
The monitoring of herbaceous fuel moisture content is a crucial activity in order to assess savanna fire risks. Faced with the difficulty of managing wide areas of vegetated surfaces, remote sensing ...appears an attractive alternative for terrestrial measurements because of its advantages related to temporal resolution and spatial coverage. Earth observation (EO)-based vegetation indices (VIs) and the ratio between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and surface temperature (ST) were used for assessment of herbaceous fuel moisture content estimates and validated against herbaceous data collected in 2010 at three open savanna sites located in Senegal, West Africa. EO-based estimates of water content were more consistent with the use of VI as compared to the ratio NDVI/ST. Different VIs based on near-infrared (NIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) reflectance were tested and a consistent relationship was found between field measurements of leaf equivalent water thickness (EWT) from all test sites and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI) and Moisture Stress Index (MSI). Also, strong relationships were found between fuel moisture content (FMC) and VIs for the sites separately; however, they were weaker for the pooled data. The correlations between EWT/FMC and VIs were found to decrease progressively as the woody cover increased. Although these results suggest that NIR and SWIR reflectance can be used for the estimation of herbaceous water content, additional validation from an increased number of study sites is necessary to study the robustness of such indices for a larger variety of savanna vegetation types.
The main objective of this paper is to provide researchers that investigate fossil phytolith assemblages and model/data comparisons a new tool for estimating C
3/C
4 grass composition over time. We ...tested the reliability of modern soil phytolith assemblages and phytolith indices for tracing the dominance of different grass subfamilies and tree cover density. We analyzed modern soil phytolith assemblages from sites over elevation gradients on Mount Kenya (Kenya), Mount Rungwe and around Lake Masoko (southern Tanzania). These data were compared with available botanical data. A phytolith index named Ic, proved to be an effective proxy of the proportions of Pooideae, Arundinoideae and Bambusoideae grasses (mainly C
3 grasses) versus Panicoideae grasses (mainly C
4 grasses), increasing with elevation in East-Africa. When tropical mountains are covered by open habitats (e.g
. grasses and shrublands), Ic should be a reliable proxy of the C
3/C
4 grass composition. These results highlight the value of the phytolith index Ic, when interpreting paleo-environmental records from tropical mountains, to: 1) better understand past local and regional C
3/C
4 grass distributions and associated climatic changes and 2) increase the set of C
3/C
4 data available for model/data comparisons.
There are many ways to study ecosystem dynamics, all having several issues. Main limitations of differential equation systems are the necessarily small number of interactions between few variables ...used, and parameter values to be set before the system dynamics can be studied. Main drawbacks of large-scale snapshot observation datasets to build a stability landscape are assuming that the most represented conditions are the most stable states, and using the computed landscape to directly study the system’s dynamics. To remedy these aforementioned shortcomings and study complex systems based on the processes that characterize them without having to limit the number of variables, neither set parameter values, nor to use observations serving both model buildup and system’s dynamics analysis, we propose a geometric model as an additional and novel aid to study ecosystem dynamics. The Drape is a generic multi-dimensional analysis, derived from process-based model datasets that include disturbances. We illustrate the methodology to apply our concept on a continental-scale system and by using a mechanistic vegetation model to obtain values of state variables. The model integrates long-term dynamics in ecosystem components beyond the theoretical stability and potential landscape representations currently published. Our approach also differs from others that use resolution of differential equation systems. We used Africa as example, representing it as a grid of 9395 pixels. We simulated each pixel to build the ecosystem domain and then to transform it into the Drape – the mean response surface. Then, we applied a textural analysis to this surface to discriminate stable states (flat regions) from unstable states (gradient or crest regions), which likely represent tipping points. Projecting observed data onto the Drape surface allows testing ecological hypotheses, such as illustrated here with the savanna-forest alternative stable states, that are still today debated topics, mainly due to methods and data used. The Drape provides new insights on all ecosystem types and states, identifying likely tipping points (represented as narrow ridges
versus
stable states across flat regions), and allowing projection and analysis of multiple ecosystem types whose state variables are based on the same three variables.
Currently, indexes from the Fire Weather Index System (FWI) are used to predict the daily fire hazard, but there is no reliable index available in the Mediterranean region to be compared with ...paleofire records and check for their long-term reliability. In order to assess the past fire hazard and the fire-season length, based on data availability and requirements for fire index computation, we first chose and tested the efficiency of the Drought Code (DC) in Corsica (the main French Mediterranean fire-prone region) over the current period (1979–2016). We then used DC as a benchmark to assess the efficiency of the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and used it to assess the Fire-Season Length (FSL), which were both used to characterize the fire hazard. Finally, we computed the Holocene MDC and FSL based on the HadCM3B-M1 climate model (three dimensional, fully dynamic, coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model without flux adjustment) datasets and compared both index trends with those from proxies of paleofire, vegetation, and land use retrieved from sedimentary records in three Corsican lakes (Bastani, Nino, and Creno). Our strategy was to (i) assess fire hazard without the constraint of the daily weather-data requirement, (ii) reconstruct Holocene fire hazard from a climate perspective, and (iii) discuss the role of climate and human fire drivers based on the MDC-Paleofire proxy comparisons. Using both the Prométhée fire database and the ERA-Interim climate database over Corsica for the current period, we showed that DC values higher than 405 units efficiently discriminated fire-days from no-fire-days. The equivalent threshold value from MDC was set at 300 units. MDC and FSL indexes calculated for each of the past 11 millennia Before Present (11 ka BP) showed high values before 7 ka BP (above 300 units for MDC) and then lower values for the mid- to late Holocene (below 300 units for MDC). Climate appeared as a key driver to predict fire occurrences, promoting fires between 11 and 8 ka BP when summers were warmer than the current ones and reducing fire hazard after 7–6 ka BP due to wetter conditions. Since 5 ka BP, humans have taken control of the fire regime through agro-pastoralism, favoring large and/or frequent events despite less fire-prone climate conditions. The current fire hazard and fire-season length computed over the last few decades (1979–2016) both reported values that were respectively higher and longer than those assessed for the previous six millennia at least and comparable for those before 7 ka BP. For the next decades, due to climate warming associated with land abandonment (fuel accumulation) and the increase in human-related sources of ignition, we can expect an increase in fire hazard and larger fire events.
Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NT). Although temperatures are expected to increase ...during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC’s climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT’s terrestrial ecosystems.
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•Burn rates will decline during the 21st century in most of the NT•Tree composition and biomass will be limiting drivers of future burning•Burn rates will decline where black spruce biomass will decrease•Increased needleleaf biomass will enhance fire activity in southeastern NT
Earth sciences; Environmental science; Global change; Ecology
In the Mediterranean basin, Corsica (French island) harbours among the best-preserved Mediterranean forest ecosystems. However, its high biodiversity could be threatened by the climate and ...disturbance-regime changes due to the global warming. This study aims (i) to estimate the future climate-related fire hazard in Corsica for the current century (2020–2100) based on two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and (ii) to compare the predicted trends with the entire Holocene period for which fire hazard has previously been assessed. An ensemble of future climate simulations from two IPCC RCP scenarios has been used to compute the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and the Fire Season Length (FSL) and to assess the level of fire hazard. Here, we show that the MDC and the FSL would both strongly increase over the next decades due to the combined effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the Corsica region. Moreover, the maximum Holocene FLS (7000 to 9000 years ago) will be reached (and even exceeded depending upon the scenario) after 2040. For the first time in the Holocene, we may be confronted to an increase in the number of fire-prone months driven by climate combined with many human-caused ignitions. This combination should increase the burned area from 15 to 140% according to scenarios. For the next 30 years, the game seems to be already played as both RCP scenarios resulted in similar increase in fire hazard in terms of drought and duration. It is thus mandatory to reconsider fire-management and fire-prevention policy to mitigate the future fire risk and its catastrophic consequences for ecosystems, population, and economy.
Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. ...However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated.
Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales.
Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000–3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (ad c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the preindustrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component.
Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions.
Context
The Canadian boreal forest provides valuable ecosystem services that are regionally and globally significant. Despite its importance, the future of the Canadian boreal forest is highly ...uncertain because potential impacts of future climate change on ecosystem processes and biomass stocks are poorly understood.
Objectives
We investigate how anticipated climatic changes in coming decades could trigger abrupt changes in the biomass of dominant species in Canada’s boreal forests.
Methods
Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which was parameterized for the dominant tree genera in Canada’s boreal forests (
Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus
) and driven by a large range of climate scenarios grouped by two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), we simulated forest composition, biomass, and the frequency of disturbance, including wildfire, from Manitoba to Newfoundland.
Results
Results suggest that responses of this region to a warmer future climate will be very important, especially in southern boreal areas and under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario. In these areas, reductions of total aboveground biomass incurred by fire and heat-induced tree mortality events are projected; the fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric CO
2
on forest productivity is unlikely to compensate for these losses. Decreases in total forest stocks would likely be associated with forest cover loss and a shift in composition in particular from needleleaf evergreen (softwood) to broadleaf deciduous (hardwood) taxa.
Conclusion
The simulated future reduction in softwood biomass suggests that forest management strategies will have to be adapted to maintain a sustainable level of forest harvest and tree density that meets demands for wood products, while maintaining other ecosystem services.
The north-central Canadian boreal forest experienced increased occurrence of large and severe wildfires caused by unusually warm temperatures and drought events during the last decade. It is, ...however, difficult to assess the exceptional nature of this recent wildfire activity, as few long-term records are available in the area. We analyzed macroscopic sedimentary charcoal from four lakes and pollen grains from one of those lakes to reconstruct long-term fire regimes and vegetation histories in the boreal forest of central Northwest Territories. We used regional estimates of past temperature and hydrological changes to identify the climatic drivers of fire activity over the past 10,000 years. Fires were larger and more severe during warm periods (before ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP and during the last 500 years) and when the forest landscape was characterized by high fuel abundance, especially fire-prone spruce. In contrast, colder conditions combined with landscape opening (i.e., lower fuel abundance) during the Neoglacial (after ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP) were related with a decline in fire size and severity. Fire size and severity increased during the last five centuries, but remained within the Holocene range of variability. According to climatic projections, fire size and severity will likely continue to increase in central Northwest Territories in response to warmer conditions, but precipitation variability, combined with increased abundance of deciduous species or opening of the landscape, could limit fire risk in the future.
•Past fire regimes in Northwest Territories inferred from lake sediment charcoal.•Highest fire size/severity (FS index) during warm periods.•Higher fire activity under warm climate and high spruce abundance.•Lower FS index after ca. 4000 cal yrs. BP following landscape opening.•FS index of the last five centuries within the Holocene range of variability.
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