Introduction
Multiple myeloma (MM) patients have an increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) when infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). ...Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) precedes MM and related disorders and affects 4.2% of the general population over the age of 50 years. MM and MGUS are associated with immune dysfunction that is believed to contribute to the development of severe COVID-19. Currently, no systematic data on MGUS and COVID-19 have been published. We conducted a large population-based cohort study to evaluate whether MGUS was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of severe COVID-19.
Methods
Data on all SARS-CoV-2 test results and COVID-19 severity was acquired from the COVID-19 Outpatient Clinic at Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland. The first case of COVID-19 in Iceland was diagnosed on February 28 th, 2020. Since then, the Icelandic authorities have followed an aggressive strategy of SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing. All SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals were immediately contacted and those with active infection were enrolled into telehealth monitoring consisting of repeated standardized interviews conducted by a nurse or physician. If clinical deterioration was detected, patients were assessed in person at the COVID-19 Outpatient Clinic and admitted if needed.
Study participants were included from the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma study (iStopMM). The study is an ongoing population-based screening study for MGUS and randomized trial of follow-up strategies. Out of the 148,708 Icelanders who were born 1976 and earlier and were alive on September 9 th 2016, 80,759 (54%) provided informed consent for study participation and 75,422 (94%) of those provided a blood sample for MGUS screening by serum protein electrophoresis (SPEP) and free light chain (FLC) assay. MGUS was determined by current criteria using SPEP and FLC assay data. Individuals who had died, been diagnosed with MM and related disorders, or were undergoing treatment for smoldering MM prior to February 28 th were excluded.
First, the association of MGUS and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was evaluated. We used a test negative design and included participants who had been tested at least once for SARS-CoV-2 between February 28 th and December 31 st, 2020. The association of MGUS and a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed using logistic regression, adjusted for sex and age.
Next, the association of MGUS and severe COVID-19 was evaluated. Those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included unless they were hospitalized or living in a nursing home at diagnosis. Participants were followed until discharge from telehealth monitoring or until considered having severe COVID-19. Severe COVID-19 was defined as the composite outcome of the need for outpatient visit or hospital admission and death and as the composite outcome of hospital admission and death. Logistic regression was then performed adjusting for sex and age.
Results
Of the 75,422 individuals screened for MGUS, 32,047 (42%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period of whom 1,754 had MGUS (5.5%). Those with MGUS were older (mean age 66.3 vs 59.1 p<0.001) and more likely to be male (50% vs 41% p<0.001). In total, 1,100 (3.4%) of the participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 of whom 65 had MGUS. After adjusting for sex and age, MGUS was not found to be associated with testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (odds ratio (OR): 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-1.36; p=0.72; Table; Figure A).
Of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, a total of 230 had the composite outcome of requiring an outpatient visit or hospital admission, and death, and 117 had the composite outcome of hospital admission and death. After adjusting for age and sex, MGUS was not found to be associated with either endpoint (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.52-1.91; p=0.99 and OR: 1.13; 95%CI: 0.52-2.46; p=0.76; Table; Figure B)
Conclusions:
In this large population-based study that included 75,422 individuals screened for MGUS, we did not find MGUS to be associated with SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility or COVID-19 severity. This is contrary to MM which is preceded by MGUS. These findings suggest that immunosuppression in MGUS differs significantly from that of MM and are important since they can inform management and recommendations for individuals with MGUS.
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Kampanis: The Binding Site: Current Employment. Hultcrantz: Intellisphere LLC: Consultancy; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; Curio Science LLC: Consultancy; Amgen: Research Funding; GlaxoSmithKline: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Durie: Amgen, Celgene/Bristol-Myers Squibb, Janssen, and Takeda: Consultancy; Amgen: Other: fees from non-CME/CE services . Harding: The Binding Site: Current Employment, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Patents & Royalties. Landgren: Amgen: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; Celgene: Research Funding; Janssen: Other: IDMC; Janssen: Research Funding; Takeda: Other: IDMC; Amgen: Research Funding; GSK: Honoraria. Kristinsson: Amgen: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding.
Nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections in Iceland in 2020 were successful, but the effects of these measures on incidence and diagnosis of other diseases is ...unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI) and selected infections with different transmission routes.
Health records of individuals 18 years or older who were admitted to Landspitali University Hospital (LUH) in 2016-2020 with pneumonia or MI were extracted from the hospital registry. We acquired data from the clinical laboratories regarding diagnostic testing for Chlamydia trachomatis, influenza, HIV and blood cultures positive for Enterobacterales species. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for 2020 was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) and compared to 2016-2019.
Discharge diagnoses due to pneumonia decreased by 31% in 2020, excluding COVID-19 pneumonia (SIR 0.69 (95%CI 0.64-0.75)). Discharge diagnoses of MI decreased by 18% (SIR 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.90)), and emergency cardiac catheterizations due to acute coronary syndrome by 23% (SIR 0.77 (95%CI 0.71-0.83)), while there was a 15% increase in blood stream infections for Enterobacterales species (SIR 1.15 (95%CI 1.04-1.28)). Testing for Chlamydia trachomatis decreased by 14.8% and positive tests decreased by 16.3%. Tests for HIV were reduced by 10.9%, while samples positive for influenza decreased by 23.6% despite doubling of tests being performed.
The number of pneumonia cases of other causes than COVID-19 requiring admission dropped by a quarter in 2020. MI, chlamydia and influensa diagnoses decreased notably. These results likely reflect a true decrease, probably due to altered behaviour during the pandemic.
Abstract
Background
The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to ...develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis.
Methods
All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed.
Results
The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke’s
R
2
was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7–24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96–0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02,
E
max
0.014 95%CI, 0.008–0.020), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03,
E
max
0.018 95%CI, 0.010–0.027), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04 and
E
max
0.027 95%CI, 0.013–0.041).
Conclusion
Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.
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