Climate change risks for African agriculture Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
03/2011, Letnik:
108, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of ...more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.
Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus ...requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions.
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The ...2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 °C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 °C scenario. In a 1.5 °C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 % compared to a 2 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming.
Significance Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our times. Human activities, like fossil-fuel burning, result in emissions of radiation-modifying substances that have a detectable, ...either warming or cooling, influence on our climate. Some, like soot (black carbon), are very short lived, whereas others, like carbon dioxide (CO ₂), are very persistent and remain in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Importantly, these substances are often emitted by common sources. As climate policy is looking at options to limit emissions of all these substances, understanding their linkages becomes extremely important. Our study disentangles these linkages and therewith helps to avoid crucial misconceptions: Measures reducing short-lived climate forcers are complementary to CO ₂ mitigation, but neglecting linkages leads to overestimating their climate benefits.
Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO ₂. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO ₂–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO ₂–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO ₂ mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO ₂–SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO ₂ mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO ₂ mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.
Addressing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) is an integral part of efficient climate change mitigation and therefore an essential part of climate policy. Metrics are used to aggregate and ...compare emissions of short- and long-lived GHGs and need to account for the difference in both magnitude and persistence of their climatic effects. Different metrics describe different approaches and perspectives, and hence yield different numerical estimates for aggregated GHG emissions. When interpreting GHG emission reduction targets, being mindful of the underlying metrical choices thus proves to be essential. Here we present the impact a recently proposed GHG metric related to the concept of CO2 forcing-equivalent emissions (called GWP*) would have on the internal consistency and environmental integrity of the Paris Agreement. We show that interpreting the Paris Agreement goals in a metric like GWP* that is significantly different from the standard metric used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report can lead to profound inconsistencies in the mitigation architecture of the Agreement. It could even undermine the integrity of the Agreement's mitigation target altogether by failing to deliver net-zero CO2 emissions and therewith failing to ensure warming is halted. Our results indicate that great care needs to be taken when applying new concepts that appear scientifically favourable to a pre-existing climate policy context.
A new approach to probabilistic projections of regional climate change is introduced. It builds on the already established quasi-linear relation between global-mean temperature and regional climate ...change found in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The new approach simultaneously 1) takes correlations between temperature- and precipitation-related uncertainty distributions into account, 2) enables the inclusion of predictors other than global-mean temperature, and 3) checks for the interscenario and interrun variability of the scaling relationships. This study tests the effectiveness of SOₓand black carbon emissions and greenhouse gas forcings as additional predictors of precipitation changes. The future precipitation response is found to deviate substantially from the linear relationship with global-mean temperature change in some regions; thereby, the two main limitations of a simple linear scaling approach, namely having to rely on exogenous aerosol experiments (or ignoring their regional effect), and ignoring changes in scaling coefficients when approaching equilibriumconditions, are addressed. The additional predictors can markedly improve the emulation of AOGCM simulations. In some regions, variations in hydrological sensitivity (the percentage change of precipitation per degree of warming) across different scenarios can be reduced by more than 50%. Coupled to probabilistic projections of global-mean temperatures and greenhouse gas forcings, bidimensional distributions of regional temperature and precipitation changes accounting formultiple uncertainties are derived. Based on 20 Fourth Assessment Report AOGCMs (AR4 AOGCMs), probabilistic projections are provided for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and 31 world regions (online database at www.pik-potsdam.de/primap/regional_temp_and_precip). As an example application of the projections for climate adaptation and vulnerability studies, future changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet are computed.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009 commits signatory nations to ...stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."
Excessive activity of NMDA-type (N-methyl-d-aspartate) glutamatergic channels has been implicated as a mechanism for neuronal injury in neurologic disorders, including glaucoma, and retinal disease. ...This study was designed to characterize the retinal response to experimental manipulations that mimic features of glutamatergic excitotoxic insult and also to determine whether memantine, an NMDA-type glutamatergic channel blocker, is effective in reversing experimental excitotoxicity.
Recordings of the electroretinogram (ERG) and spiking activity of single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) were made from rabbit retinas. Excitotoxic insult was induced by either (1) application of NMDA, a selective NMDA receptor agonist; (2) application of TBOA (dl-threo-beta-benzyloxyaspartic acid), a selective inhibitor of glutamate transporters, or (3) perfusion with magnesium-free medium. For each condition, memantine was coapplied to determine its efficacy for reversal of experimental excitotoxicity. Memantine was also applied in isolation to characterize any effect on retinal responses to light stimuli.
All three experimental manipulations were associated with an increase in the tonic level of RGC spiking activity, a reduction in RGC spike amplitude, and, in some cells, block of spike generation. Experimental excitotoxicity had little or no effect on ERG responses. Coapplication of memantine was associated with recovery of RGC tonic spiking activity and spike amplitude toward control levels. Application of memantine in isolation was associated with a dose-dependent effect on the timing of ERG and RGC-OFF responses.
Memantine was effective in reversing acute experimental excitotoxicity at concentrations that have little effect on retinal light signaling.
G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR)-mediated presynaptic inhibition is a fundamental mechanism regulating synaptic transmission in the CNS. The classical GPCR-mediated presynaptic inhibition in the CNS ...is produced by direct interactions between the G(βγ) subunits of the G-protein and presynaptic Ca(2+) channels, K(+) channels, or synaptic proteins that affect transmitter release. This mode of action is shared by well known GPCRs such as the α2, GABA(B), and CB1 receptors. We report that the α2 receptor-mediated inhibition of presynaptic Ca(2+) channel and transmitter release in rat retinal rod bipolar cells depends on the G(α) subunit via a G(α)-adenylate cyclase-cAMP cascade and requires participation of the type 4 phosphodiesterase (PDE4), a new role for phosphodiesterase in neural signaling. By using the G(α) instead of the G(βγ) subunits, this mechanism is able to use a cyclase/PDE enzyme pair to dynamically control a cyclic nucleotide second messenger (i.e., cAMP) for the regulation of synaptic transmission, an operating strategy that shows remarkable similarity to that of dynamic control of cGMP and transmitter release from photoreceptors by the guanylate cyclase/PDE6 pair in phototransduction. Our results demonstrate a new paradigm of GPCR-mediated presynaptic inhibition in the CNS and add a new regulatory mechanism at a critical presynaptic site in the visual pathway that controls the transmission of scotopic information. They also provide a presynaptic mechanism that could contribute to neuroprotection of retinal ganglion cells by α2 agonists, such as brimonidine, in animal models of glaucoma and retinal ischemia and in glaucoma patients.
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