Aim
Predictions of plant traits over space and time are increasingly used to improve our understanding of plant community responses to global environmental change. A necessary step forward is to ...assess the reliability of global trait predictions. In this study, we predict community mean plant traits at the global scale and present a systematic evaluation of their reliability in terms of the accuracy of the models, ecological realism and various sources of uncertainty.
Location
Global.
Time period
Present.
Major taxa studied
Vascular plants.
Methods
We predicted global distributions of community mean specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen concentration, plant height and wood density with an ensemble modelling approach based on georeferenced, locally measured trait data representative of the plant community. We assessed the predictive performance of the models, the plausibility of predicted trait combinations, the influence of data quality, and the uncertainty across geographical space attributed to spatial extrapolation and diverging model predictions.
Results
Ensemble predictions of community mean plant height, specific leaf area and wood density resulted in ecologically plausible trait–environment relationships and trait–trait combinations. Leaf nitrogen concentration, however, could not be predicted reliably. The ensemble approach was better at predicting community trait means than any of the individual modelling techniques, which varied greatly in predictive performance and led to divergent predictions, mostly in African deserts and the Arctic, where predictions were also extrapolated. High data quality (i.e., including intraspecific variability and a representative species sample) increased model performance by 28%.
Main conclusions
Plant community traits can be predicted reliably at the global scale when using an ensemble approach and high‐quality data for traits that mostly respond to large‐scale environmental factors. We recommend applying ensemble forecasting to account for model uncertainty, using representative trait data, and more routinely assessing the reliability of trait predictions.
Plant functional traits can predict community assembly and ecosystem functioning and are thus widely used in global models of vegetation dynamics and land-climate feedbacks. Still, we lack a global ...understanding of how land and climate affect plant traits. A previous global analysis of six traits observed two main axes of variation: (1) size variation at the organ and plant level and (2) leaf economics balancing leaf persistence against plant growth potential. The orthogonality of these two axes suggests they are differently influenced by environmental drivers. We find that these axes persist in a global dataset of 17 traits across more than 20,000 species. We find a dominant joint effect of climate and soil on trait variation. Additional independent climate effects are also observed across most traits, whereas independent soil effects are almost exclusively observed for economics traits. Variation in size traits correlates well with a latitudinal gradient related to water or energy limitation. In contrast, variation in economics traits is better explained by interactions of climate with soil fertility. These findings have the potential to improve our understanding of biodiversity patterns and our predictions of climate change impacts on biogeochemical cycles.
Aim
Plant trait databases often contain traits that are correlated, but for whom direct (undirected statistical dependency) and indirect (mediated by other traits) connections may be confounded. The ...confounding of correlation and connection hinders our understanding of plant strategies, and how these vary among growth forms and climate zones. We identified the direct and indirect connections across plant traits relevant to competition, resource acquisition and reproductive strategies using a global database and explored whether connections within and between traits from different tissue types vary across climates and growth forms.
Location
Global.
Major taxa studied
Plants.
Time period
Present.
Methods
We used probabilistic graphical models and a database of 10 plant traits (leaf area, specific leaf area, mass‐ and area‐based leaf nitrogen and phosphorous content, leaf life span, plant height, stem specific density and seed mass) with 16,281 records to describe direct and indirect connections across woody and non‐woody plants across tropical, temperate, arid, cold and polar regions.
Results
Trait networks based on direct connections are sparser than those based on correlations. Land plants had high connectivity across traits within and between tissue types; leaf life span and stem specific density shared direct connections with all other traits. For both growth forms, two groups of traits form modules of more highly connected traits; one related to resource acquisition, the other to plant architecture and reproduction. Woody species had higher trait network modularity in polar compared to temperate and tropical climates, while non‐woody species did not show significant differences in modularity across climate regions.
Main conclusions
Plant traits are highly connected both within and across tissue types, yet traits segregate into persistent modules of traits. Variation in the modularity of trait networks suggests that trait connectivity is shaped by prevailing environmental conditions and demonstrates that plants of different growth forms use alternative strategies to cope with local conditions.
Plant–pollinator interactions are often highly specialised, which may be a consequence of co‐evolution. Yet when plants and pollinators co‐evolve, it is not clear if this will also result in frequent ...cospeciation. Here, we investigate the mutual evolutionary history of South African oil‐collecting Rediviva bees and their Diascia host plants, in which the elongated forelegs of female Rediviva have been suggested to coevolve with the oil‐producing spurs of their Diascia hosts. After controlling for phylogenetic nonindependence, we found Rediviva foreleg length to be significantly correlated with Diascia spur length, suggestive of co‐evolution. However, as trait correlation could also be due to pollinator shifts, we tested if cospeciation or pollinator shifts have dominated the evolution of Rediviva–Diascia interactions by analysing phylogenies in a cophylogenetic framework. Distance‐based cophylogenetic analyses (PARAFIT, PACo) indicated significant congruence of the two phylogenies under most conditions. Yet, we found that phylogenetic relatedness was correlated with ecological similarity (the spectrum of partners that each taxon interacted with) only for Diascia but not for Rediviva, suggesting that phylogenetic congruence might be due to phylogenetic tracking by Diascia of Rediviva rather than strict (reciprocal) co‐evolution. Furthermore, event‐based reconciliation using a parsimony approach (CORE‐PA) on average revealed only 11–13 cospeciation events but 58–80 pollinator shifts. Probabilistic cophylogenetic analyses (COALA) supported this trend (8–29 cospeciations vs. 40 pollinator shifts). Our study suggests that diversification of Diascia has been largely driven by Rediviva (phylogenetic tracking, pollinator shifts) but not vice versa. Moreover, our data suggest that, even in co‐evolving mutualisms, cospeciation events might occur only infrequently.
Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global ...scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusing on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration—specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (N
m
) and phosphorus (P
m
), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 ∼50 × 50-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways—without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model’s predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means.
Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the ...foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science;
Johannesburg, September 2015
...Plant functional traits provide a means to investigate the diverse ecological strategies employed by plants and a tangible link to assess how the variability in these traits might influence ecosystem processes and functioning. The aim of this dissertation has been to determine how plant and soil nutrient dynamics in a savanna environment are affected by two primary drivers, one a top-down driver, being herbivory by large mammalian herbivores and the other a bottom-up driver, the variable N2-fixation capacity of tree species. To the best of my knowledge this is the most comprehensive study to date to investigate the bioavailability of soil nutrients and the link between these availabilities and plant functional traits. Furthermore this study provides important insight into the use of a novel technology, ion exchange resin capsules in a South African savanna context.;
By studying a selection of plant functional traits (nutrient concentrations, ratios as well as specific leaf area, relative chlorophyll content and leaf dry matter content) and soil nutrients (suite of macro- and micronutrients) associated with two species of savanna tree of contrasting N2-fixation capacities, I went about investigating how herbivory differentially influences the nutrient dynamics of this system. Selecting individuals of the N2-fixing Acacia tortilis and the non-N2-fixing Combretum hereroense both inside an exclosure and on the adjacent land allowed me to determine the potential impacts by herbivores. These include both direct impacts from foraging and indirect impacts through the regulation of nutrient input pathways via deposition of dung and urine. The work compiled for this dissertation is based on the experimental work conducted in a mesic savanna system in the Marakele Park (PTY) Ltd. During the course of this dissertation, I investigated herbaceous and woody biomass in relation to protection from and exposure to herbivory, determining any differences in the functional leaf traits between individuals inside and outside the exclosure, if these differences were exhibited in the associated herbaceous biomass as well as a comprehensive assessment of the bioavailability of 15 important micro- and macronutrients using ion exchange resin capsules. These capsules were incubated in the soil over the entire summer rainfall period, providing a;
cumulative view of nutrient bioavailability during the growing season. In this work I also demonstrated whether particular nutrients are associated with specific drivers (i.e. herbivory, canopy position or N2-fixation). Furthermore, these results were then looked at together to suggest the mechanism by which herbivory and N2-fixation drive nutrient dynamics and make recommendations on the use of these results in managing savanna systems in the future.;
Between the two sites, aboveground herbaceous biomass was significantly greater when protected from herbivores than on the adjacent land. Both exposure to herbivory and N2-fixation capacity were found to alter plant functional traits. Herbivore presence was associated with an increase in herbivore-resistant or structural traits such as C/N, C/P, foliar C and SLA as well as a reduction in N and P content. These less palatable leaves were accompanied by a significantly lower availability of a number of important soil elements, namely NO3-N, inorganic N, P, K, Na, Cu, B, Mg, and S. This suggests a feedback loop between these two components of the ecosystem. N2-fixation capacity is associated with greater concentrations of elements such as N and P and a reduction in traits that are illustrative of a greater structural investment into leaves. Soil nutrient bioavailability however, shows a reduction in certain nutrients when associated with Acacia. A number of nutrients which show a reduction in availability are those which are essential to N2-fixation machinery, namely B and Fe but also lower bioavailabilities of Al and Mg. Finally, Ca, NO3-N, B, Fe, Al and inorganic N were found in greater quantities below the tree canopy than beyond it.;
In conclusion both herbivory by large mammalian herbivores and N2-fixation have significant effects on tree health, through their regulation of limiting nutrients and alteration of leaf traits. Given the changes which these drivers are capable of exerting on plant and soil nutrient dynamics, this has important consequences for ecosystem processes and functioning and highlights potential considerations in the long-term sustainable management of savannas.
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