•There has been increased attention directed towards climate change adaptation.•Urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for ...adaptation.•Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) current barriers and 2) frameworks/metrics to identify and track adaptation progress.•Careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.
Climate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.
The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by ...climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The loss of natural enemies is a key feature of species introductions and is assumed to facilitate the increased success of species in new locales (enemy release hypothesis; ERH). The ERH is rarely ...tested experimentally, however, and is often assumed from observations of enemy loss. We provide a rigorous test of the link between enemy loss and enemy release by conducting observational surveys and an in situ parasitoid exclusion experiment in multiple locations in the native and introduced ranges of a gall-forming insect,
Neuroterus saltatorius
, which was introduced poleward, within North America. Observational surveys revealed that the gall-former experienced increased demographic success and lower parasitoid attack in the introduced range. Also, a different composition of parasitoids attacked the gall-former in the introduced range. These observational results show that enemies were lost and provide support for the ERH. Experimental results, however, revealed that, while some enemy release occurred, it was not the sole driver of demographic success. This was because background mortality in the absence of enemies was higher in the native range than in the introduced range, suggesting that factors other than parasitoids limit the species in its native range and contribute to its success in its introduced range. Our study demonstrates the importance of measuring the effect of enemies in the context of other community interactions in both ranges to understand what factors cause the increased demographic success of introduced species. This case also highlights that species can experience very different dynamics when introduced into ecologically similar communities.
Farmer profit can be increased and air quality improved
Although intentional use of fires to transform land has decreased globally (
1
,
2
), particularly among highly capitalized countries through ...regulatory and market-oriented approaches and moral suasion, regulatory strategies have been less effective in southern and eastern Asia (see table S21). Some densely populated agricultural regions in China and India buck the global trend, showing increases in agricultural fires (
2
). This is particularly true in northwestern India, where rice residue burning makes a substantial contribution to air pollution and short-lived climate pollutants (
3
,
4
). Regulations are in place to reduce agricultural fires, but burning continues because of uncertainty regarding policy implementation and regarding access and returns to alternative technologies. With the field burning season soon upon us, we synthesize emerging evidence on alternatives to burning, clarify the business case for alternative practices, identify remaining uncertainties, and discuss approaches to increase their widespread adoption. Often, there are difficult trade-offs between environmental improvement and profitable economic opportunities. The case of crop residue management in northwestern India does not appear to fit this pattern and provides lessons that may be useful elsewhere.
Climate Change Hastens Population Extinctions McLaughlin, John F.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Boggs, Carol L. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
04/2002, Letnik:
99, Številka:
9
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to ...climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.
Chicago’s Heat Island and Climate Change Conry, Patrick; Sharma, Ashish; Potosnak, Mark J. ...
Journal of applied meteorology and climatology,
07/2015, Letnik:
54, Številka:
7
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The interaction of global climate change and urban heat islands (UHI) is expected to have far-reaching impacts on the sustainability of the world’s rapidly growing urban population centers. Given ...that a wide range of spatiotemporal scales contributed by meteorological forcing and complex surface heterogeneity complicates UHI, a multimodel nested approach is used in this paper to study climate-change impacts on the Chicago, Illinois, UHI, covering a range of relevant scales. One-way dynamical downscaling is used with a model chain consisting of global climate (Community Atmosphere Model), regional climate (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), and microscale (“ENVI-met”) models. Nested mesoscale and microscale models are evaluated against the present-day observations (including a dedicated urban miniature field study), and the results favorably demonstrate the fidelity of the downscaling techniques that were used. A simple building-energy model is developed and used in conjunction with microscale-model output to calculate future energy demands for a building, and a substantial increase (as much as 26% during daytime) is noted for future (∼2080) climate. Although winds and lake-breeze circulation for future climate are favorable for reducing energy usage by 7%, the benefits are outweighed by such factors as exacerbated UHI and air temperature. An adverse change in human-comfort indicators is also noted in the future climate, with 92% of the population experiencing thermal discomfort. The model chain that was used has general applicability for evaluating climate-change impacts on city centers and, hence, for urban-sustainability studies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Several recent studies have demonstrated the use of Roche 454 sequencing technology for de novo transcriptome analysis. Low error rates and high coverage also allow for effective SNP discovery and ...genetic diversity estimates. However, genetically diverse datasets, such as those sourced from natural populations, pose challenges for assembly programs and subsequent analysis. Further, estimating the effectiveness of transcript discovery using Roche 454 transcriptome data is still a difficult task.
Using the Roche 454 FLX Titanium platform, we sequenced and assembled larval transcriptomes for two butterfly species: the Propertius duskywing, Erynnis propertius (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) and the Anise swallowtail, Papilio zelicaon (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). The Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) generated represent a diverse sample drawn from multiple populations, developmental stages, and stress treatments. Despite this diversity, > 95% of the ESTs assembled into long (> 714 bp on average) and highly covered (> 9.6x on average) contigs. To estimate the effectiveness of transcript discovery, we compared the number of bases in the hit region of unigenes (contigs and singletons) to the length of the best match silkworm (Bombyx mori) protein--this "ortholog hit ratio" gives a close estimate on the amount of the transcript discovered relative to a model lepidopteran genome. For each species, we tested two assembly programs and two parameter sets; although CAP3 is commonly used for such data, the assemblies produced by Celera Assembler with modified parameters were chosen over those produced by CAP3 based on contig and singleton counts as well as ortholog hit ratio analysis. In the final assemblies, 1,413 E. propertius and 1,940 P. zelicaon unigenes had a ratio > 0.8; 2,866 E. propertius and 4,015 P. zelicaon unigenes had a ratio > 0.5.
Ultimately, these assemblies and SNP data will be used to generate microarrays for ecoinformatics examining climate change tolerance of different natural populations. These studies will benefit from high quality assemblies with few singletons (less than 26% of bases for each assembled transcriptome are present in unassembled singleton ESTs) and effective transcript discovery (over 6,500 of our putative orthologs cover at least 50% of the corresponding model silkworm gene).
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce ...earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.
Assisted migration (AM) has been suggested as a management strategy for aiding species in reaching newly suitable locations as climate changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide ...important insights for decisions on whether to assist a species in its migration; however, their application includes uncertainties. In this study, we use consensus SDMs to model the future suitable areas for 13 vascular plant species with poor dispersal capacity. Based on the outputs of SDMs under different climate change scenarios and future times, we quantify the predicted changes in suitable area by calculating metrics that describe the need and potential for migration. We find that, by the end of the 21st century, one of the species would benefit from AM under mild climate change, seven under moderate change, and for 12 out of 13 species studied AM appears to be a relevant conservation method under strong climate change. We also test the effect of different modeling attributes on the metrics and find little variation between SDMs constructed using different combinations of modeling methods and variable sets. However, the choice of climate variables had a larger influence on the level of the metrics than did the modeling method. We therefore suggest that the choice of climate variables should receive ample attention when measuring climate change threat using SDMs and that experiments aiming to uncover critical environmental factors for individual species should be extensively conducted. This study illustrates that dispersal assistance may be needed for many species under a wide range of possible future climates.
•Species distribution models provide useful insights for assisted migration (AM).•Model outputs can be converted into metrics describing the need and potential for AM.•Metrics combine losses and gains of suitable areas for a species into one index.•Several dispersal-limited species may benefit from AM under strong climate change.•Choice of climate variables has a larger effect on metrics than choice of modeling method.
We must consider the role of multitrophic interactions when examining species' responses to climate change. Many plant species, particularly trees, are limited in their ability to shift their ...geographic ranges quickly under climate change. Consequently, for herbivorous insects, geographic mosaics of host plant specialization could prohibit range shifts and adaptation when insects become separated from suitable host plants. In this study, we examined larval growth and survival of an oak specialist butterfly (Erynnis propertius) on different oaks (Quercus spp.) that occur across its range to determine if individuals can switch host plants if they move into new areas under climate change. Individuals from Oregon and northern California, USA that feed on Q. garryana and Q. kelloggii in the field experienced increased mortality on Q. agrifolia, a southern species with low nutrient content. In contrast, populations from southern California that normally feed on Q. agrifolia performed well on Q. agrifolia and Q. garryana and poorly on the northern, high elevation Q. kelloggii. Therefore, colonization of southern E. propertius in higher elevations and some northern locales may be prohibited under climate change but latitudinal shifts to Q. garryana may be possible. Where shifts are precluded due to maladaptation to hosts, populations may not accrue warm-adapted genotypes. Our study suggests that, when interacting species experience asynchronous range shifts, historical local adaptation may preclude populations from colonizing new locales under climate change.
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