It has been suggested that tropical forest and savanna could represent alternative stable states, implying critical transitions at tipping points in response to altered climate or other drivers. So ...far, evidence for this idea has remained elusive, and integrated climate models assume smooth vegetation responses. We analyzed data on the distribution of tree cover in Africa, Australia, and South America to reveal strong evidence for the existence of three distinct attractors: forest, savanna, and a treeless state. Empirical reconstruction of the basins of attraction indicates that the resilience of the states varies in a universal way with precipitation. These results allow the identification of regions where forest or savanna may most easily tip into an alternative state, and they pave the way to a new generation of coupled climate models.
Summary
Tropical ecosystems have the highest levels of biodiversity, cycle more water and absorb more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem on Earth. Consequently, these ecosystems are ...extremely important components of Earth’s climatic system and biogeochemical cycles. Plant hydraulics is an essential discipline to understand and predict the dynamics of tropical vegetation in scenarios of changing water availability. Using published plant hydraulic data we show that the trade‐off between drought avoidance (expressed as deep‐rooting, deciduousness and capacitance) and hydraulic safety (P50 – the water potential when plants lose 50% of their maximum hydraulic conductivity) is a major axis of physiological variation across tropical ecosystems. We also propose a novel and independent axis of hydraulic trait variation linking vulnerability to hydraulic failure (expressed as the hydraulic safety margin (HSM)) and growth, where inherent fast‐growing plants have lower HSM compared to slow‐growing plants. We surmise that soil nutrients are fundamental drivers of tropical community assembly determining the distribution and abundance of the slow‐safe/fast‐risky strategies. We conclude showing that including either the growth‐HSM or the resistance‐avoidance trade‐off in models can make simulated tropical rainforest communities substantially more vulnerable to drought than similar communities without the trade‐off. These results suggest that vegetation models need to represent hydraulic trade‐off axes to accurately project the functioning and distribution of tropical ecosystems.
Understanding the mechanisms controlling the distribution of biomes remains a challenge. Although tropical biome distribution has traditionally been explained by climate and soil, contrasting ...vegetation types often occur as mosaics with sharp boundaries under very similar environmental conditions. While evidence suggests that these biomes are alternative states, empirical broad‐scale support to this hypothesis is still lacking. Using community‐level field data and a novel resource‐niche overlap approach, we show that, for a wide range of environmental conditions, fire feedbacks maintain savannas and forests as alternative biome states in both the Neotropics and the Afrotropics. In addition, wooded grasslands and savannas occurred as alternative grassy states in the Afrotropics, depending on the relative importance of fire and herbivory feedbacks. These results are consistent with landscape scale evidence and suggest that disturbance is a general factor driving and maintaining alternative biome states and vegetation mosaics in the tropics.
Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the ...Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
Thresholds for boreal biome transitions Scheffer, Marten; Hirota, Marina; Holmgren, Milena ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
12/2012, Letnik:
109, Številka:
52
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Although the boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average, the way in which the vast boreal forests and tundras may respond is poorly understood. Using satellite data, we reveal ...marked alternative modes in the frequency distributions of boreal tree cover. At the northern end and at the dry continental southern extremes, treeless tundra and steppe, respectively, are the only possible states. However, over a broad intermediate temperature range, these treeless states coexist with boreal forest (∼75% tree cover) and with two more open woodland states (∼20% and ∼45% tree cover). Intermediate tree covers (e.g., ∼10%, ∼30%, and ∼60% tree cover) between these distinct states are relatively rare, suggesting that they may represent unstable states where the system dwells only transiently. Mechanisms for such instabilities remain to be unraveled, but our results have important implications for the anticipated response of these ecosystems to climatic change. The data reveal that boreal forest shows no gradual decline in tree cover toward its limits. Instead, our analysis suggests that it becomes less resilient in the sense that it may more easily shift into a sparse woodland or treeless state. Similarly, the relative scarcity of the intermediate ∼10% tree cover suggests that tundra may shift relatively abruptly to a more abundant tree cover. If our inferences are correct, climate change may invoke massive nonlinear shifts in boreal biomes.
Coexisting vegetation types in tropical landscapes can respond in contrasting ways to rainfall, despite being in the same climatic envelope. Understanding such heterogeneity in vegetation-rainfall ...interactions is key for predicting how ecosystems might respond to future environmental changes. Here we test whether temporal coupling between vegetation greenness and rainfall is a good indicator of ecosystem state in the landscape. For this, we study a well-preserved landscape of the Brazilian Cerrado that is formed by mosaics of contrasting ecosystems, including savannas, dry forests and gallery forests. First, we correlate the time-series of rainfall and vegetation greenness to quantify their coupling for each vegetation type. We then compare vegetation-rainfall coupling with other state variables, such as local-scale vegetation structural and functional traits, as well as differences in environmental conditions in which these vegetation types exist. Coexisting vegetation types are set in contrasting local-scale environmental conditions and have distinct responsiveness to rainfall. Commonly used structural and functional state variables, such as tree cover and tree height, do not depict such marked differences between the vegetation types, particularly for gallery and dry forests. Dry forests have the strongest coupling and decrease their greenness during dry seasons, reflecting vegetation deciduousness on nutrient-richer soils. In contrast, gallery forests increase their greenness during the dry season, when direct radiation peaks, likely due to perennial access to groundwater. Savannas are less responsive to rainfall and have a more stable greenness throughout the year. Our findings suggest that heterogeneity in local abiotic conditions contribute to determining both vegetation distribution and ecosystem states in these tropical savanna landscapes. Changes in these conditions as a result of climate and land-use changes will likely alter the distribution of vegetation types in the future. Our functional metric may thus be useful for assessing future responses of tropical ecosystems to changes in precipitation.
Abstract
The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth’s tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been ...identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow. Those stressors often occur in power-law-like distributions and can be approximated by
α
-stable Lévy noise. Here, we show that classical critical slowing down (CSD) indicators to measure changes in forest resilience are robust under such power-law disturbances. To assess the robustness of CSD indicators, we simulate pulse-like perturbations in an adapted and conceptual model of a tropical rainforest. We find few missed early warnings and few false alarms are achievable simultaneously if the following steps are carried out carefully: first, the model must be known to resolve the timescales of the perturbation. Second, perturbations need to be filtered according to their absolute temporal autocorrelation. Third, CSD has to be assessed using the non-parametric Kendall-
τ
slope. These prerequisites allow for an increase in the sensitivity of early warning signals. Hence, our findings imply improved reliability of the interpretation of empirically estimated rainforest resilience through CSD indicators.
Abstract Studying vegetation water content (VWC) dynamics is essential for understanding plant growth, water and carbon cycles, and ecosystem stability. However, acquiring field-based VWC estimates, ...consistently through space and time, is challenging due to time and resource constraints. This study investigates the potential of Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for estimating VWC in natural ecosystems in central Brazil. We assessed (i) how well Sentinel-1 SAR data can capture variations in VWC over three different vegetation types (i.e. dry and waterlogged grasslands, and savannas) and (ii) how the studied vegetation types respond to seasonal dry periods in terms of water content. Field data from 82 plots, distributed across the three vegetation types and revisited in four different seasons, were used to calibrate and validate a model for VWC estimation. The calibrated model, with an R 2 of 0.52 and RMSE of 0.465 kg m −2 , was then applied to Sentinel-1 SAR backscatter data to generate monthly VWC maps for grassland and savanna ecosystems at 30 m spatial resolution between April 2015 and September 2023. These maps, combined with rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data, provided insights into how the studied vegetation types respond to water shortage during the dry season at the community scale. More specifically, savannas showed to be better able to retain higher levels of water content during the dry season, probably due to a higher water holding capacity of the woody component together with its deep-root system ability to access deeper groundwater. This research demonstrates the potential of Sentinel-1 SAR data for monitoring VWC in natural ecosystems, allowing for future studies to assess ecosystems’ response to drought events and changes in their functioning, ultimately supporting land management decisions.
Native vegetation across the Brazilian Cerrado is highly heterogeneous and biodiverse and provides important ecosystem services, including carbon and water balance regulation, however, land-use ...changes have been extensive. Conservation and restoration of native vegetation is essential and could be facilitated by detailed landcover maps. Here, across a large case study region in Goiás State, Brazil (1.1 Mha), we produced physiognomy level maps of native vegetation (n = 8) and other landcover types (n = 5). Seven different classification schemes using different combinations of input satellite imagery were used, with a Random Forest classifier and 2-stage approach implemented within Google Earth Engine. Overall classification accuracies ranged from 88.6-92.6% for native and non-native vegetation at the formation level (stage-1), and 70.7-77.9% for native vegetation at the physiognomy level (stage-2), across the seven different classifications schemes. The differences in classification accuracy resulting from varying the input imagery combination and quality control procedures used were small. However, a combination of seasonal Sentinel-1 (C-band synthetic aperture radar) and Sentinel-2 (surface reflectance) imagery resulted in the most accurate classification at a spatial resolution of 20 m. Classification accuracies when using Landsat-8 imagery were marginally lower, but still reasonable. Quality control procedures that account for vegetation burning when selecting vegetation reference data may also improve classification accuracy for some native vegetation types. Detailed landcover maps, produced using freely available satellite imagery and upscalable techniques, will be important tools for understanding vegetation functioning at the landscape scale and for implementing restoration projects.
Publicly available remote sensing products have boosted science in many ways. The openness of these data sources suggests high reproducibility. However, as we show here, results may be specific to ...versions of the data products that can become unavailable as new versions are posted. We focus on remotely-sensed tree cover. Recent studies have used this public resource to detect multi-modality in tree cover in the tropical and boreal biomes. Such patterns suggest alternative stable states separated by critical tipping points. This has important implications for the potential response of these ecosystems to global climate change. For the boreal region, four distinct ecosystem states (i.e., treeless, sparse and dense woodland, and boreal forest) were previously identified by using the Collection 3 data of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF). Since then, the MODIS VCF product has been updated to Collection 5; and a Landsat VCF product of global tree cover at a fine spatial resolution of 30 meters has been developed. Here we compare these different remote-sensing products of tree cover to show that identification of alternative stable states in the boreal biome partly depends on the data source used. The updated MODIS data and the newer Landsat data consistently demonstrate three distinct modes around similar tree-cover values. Our analysis suggests that the boreal region has three modes: one sparsely vegetated state (treeless), one distinct 'savanna-like' state and one forest state, which could be alternative stable states. Our analysis illustrates that qualitative outcomes of studies may change fundamentally as new versions of remote sensing products are used. Scientific reproducibility thus requires that old versions remain publicly available.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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