The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land ...management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
•Future European land systems modelled across scenario space.•Substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under divergent conditions•Currently marginal agricultural areas may face complex and difficult choices.
Quantitative participatory exploration of the many complex issues surrounding cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation under uncertain futures is dependent on the ...provision, in some form, of scenarios and scenario outputs. However, the normal provision by the research community of pre-defined scenario outputs results in a lack of flexibility for stakeholders regarding choice of climate models, scenarios, scenario quantification and output indicators which in turn can lead to a lack of trust. This Special Issue describes the development and application of a web-based interactive simulation and display environment, called the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform, which provides a holistic (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) modelling framework. The IA Platform guides the user through simulation of (1) potential impacts under scenarios of climate and/or socio-economic change, (2) identification of sectoral and multi-sectoral vulnerability ‘hotspots’ either before or after adaptation, (3) the potential for adaptation to reduce impacts within the capital constraints of the selected scenario(s), and (4) the cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures. The Special Issue explores how the IA Platform has been: (i) designed to provide a user-friendly, intuitive and facilitating, rather than predictive or prescriptive, environment for users; and (ii) utilised to quantitatively explore a diverse range of uncertain futures across Europe.
An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater ...recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
Access to water for irrigating amenity landscape and public gardens is under intense pressure due to the rising competition for water between different sectors, exacerbated by increased drought risk ...and climate change. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to reduce the economic impacts of restrictions on irrigation abstraction in dry years and to build resilience to future water shortages. This study investigated the hydrological viability of RWH for the landscape and public garden sector based on an analysis of five Royal Horticultural Society gardens. A RWH model was developed and combined with on-site observations, key informant interviews and GIS analyses, to estimate irrigation demands and the volumes of harvested rainfall for contrasting agroclimatic years. The results showed that gardens located in wetter regions and with low irrigation water demand to harvestable area ratio had a higher RWH potential and could almost exclusively rely on rainwater to meet irrigation demand, even in dry years. RWH potential is more limited for gardens in drier regions where they would require larger areas to harvest rainwater and for storage. Appropriately designed rainwater harvesting systems offer the potential to remove most of the risk of irrigation abstraction restrictions during dry years and associated impacts on amenity planting quality and visitor experience.
Groundwater is a key resource for global agricultural production but is vulnerable to a changing climate. Given significant uncertainty about future impacts, bottom-up approaches for developing ...adaptive capacity are a more appropriate paradigm than seeking optimal adaptation strategies that assume a high ability to predict future risks or outcomes. This paper analyses the groundwater management practices adopted at multiple scales in East Anglia, UK, to identify wider lessons for developing adaptive capacity within groundwater management. Key elements are (1) horizontal and vertical integration within resource management; (2) making better use of water resources, at all scales, which vary in space and time; (3) embedding adaptation at multiple scales (from farm to national) within an adaptive management framework which allows strategies and management decisions to be updated in the light of changing understanding or conditions; (4) facilitating the ongoing formation through collective action of local Water Abstractor Groups; (5) promoting efficient use of scarce water resources by these groups, so as to increase their power to negotiate over possible short-term license restrictions; (6) controlling abstractions within a sustainable resource management framework, whether at national (regulatory) or at local (Abstractor Group) scales, that takes account of environmental water needs; and (7) reducing non-climate pressures which have the potential to further reduce the availability of usable groundwater.
A good quantitative understanding of phosphorus (P) delivery is essential in the design of management strategies to prevent eutrophication of terrestrial freshwaters. Most research to date has ...focussed on surface and near-surface hydrological pathways, under the common assumption that little P leaches to groundwater. Here we present an analysis of national patterns of groundwater phosphate concentrations in England and Wales, Scotland, and the Republic of Ireland, which shows that many groundwater bodies have median P concentrations above ecologically significant thresholds for freshwaters. The potential risk to receptor ecosystems of high observed groundwater P concentrations will depend on (1) whether the observed groundwater P concentrations are above the natural background; (2) the influence of local hydrogeological settings (pathways) on the likelihood of significant P transfers to the receptor; (3) the sensitivity of the receptor to P; and, (4) the relative magnitude of P transfers from groundwater compared to other P sources. Our research suggests that, although there is often a high degree of uncertainty in many of these factors, groundwater has the potential to trigger and/or maintain eutrophication under certain scenarios: the assumption of groundwater contribution to river flows as a ubiquitous source of dilution for P-rich surface runoff must therefore be questioned. Given the regulatory importance of P concentrations in triggering ecological quality thresholds, there is an urgent need for detailed monitoring and research to characterise the extent and magnitude of different groundwater P sources, the likelihood for P transformation and/or storage along aquifer-hyporheic zone flow paths and to identify the subsequent risk to receptor ecosystems.
In recent years water companies have started to adopt catchment management to reduce diffuse pollution in drinking water supply areas. The heterogeneity of catchments and the range of pollutants that ...must be removed to meet the EU Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) limits make it difficult to prioritise areas of a catchment for intervention. Thus conceptual frameworks are required that can disaggregate the components of pollutant risk and help water companies make decisions about where to target interventions in their catchments to maximum effect. This paper demonstrates the concept of generalising pollutants in the same framework by reviewing key pollutant processes within a source-mobilisation-delivery context. From this, criteria are developed (with input from water industry professionals involved in catchment management) which highlights the need for a new water industry specific conceptual framework. The new CaRPoW (Catchment Risk to Potable Water) framework uses the Source-Mobilisation-Delivery concept as modular components of risk that work at two scales, source and mobilisation at the field scale and delivery at the catchment scale. Disaggregating pollutant processes permits the main components of risk to be ascertained so that appropriate interventions can be selected. The generic structure also allows for the outputs from different pollutants to be compared so that potential multiple benefits can be identified. CaRPow provides a transferable framework that can be used by water companies to cost-effectively target interventions under current conditions or under scenarios of land use or climate change.
•Water companies must mitigate multiple pollutant risks in water supply catchments.•A review of catchment processes highlights links between multiple pollutants.•No current framework is able to identify and compare multiple pollutant risks.•The new CaRPoW framework disaggregates and compares risks for measure selection.•CaRPoW allows water companies to more effectively select and target measures.
•Supplemental irrigation is highly important for achieving yield and quality assurance to guarantee profitable crop production in dry years.•We modelled and mapped the financial benefits of ...supplemental irrigation in England and Wales.•A sensitivity analysis shows the impact of agroclimate, market and water supply conditions on irrigation benefits.•A better knowledge of the financial benefits of irrigation would support decision making in water resources planning to reduce the impacts of low flows on agriculture during drought periods.
Irrigation is an essential component of crop production to meet retailer demands for premium quality when rainfall is insufficient. Under drought conditions, irrigation can be constrained by water resources availability, with consequent impacts on yield, quality and revenue. Whilst most agriculture in Europe is rainfed, greater dependence on supplemental irrigation could become more important in humid environments due to a changing climate with greater rainfall uncertainty and higher frequency of droughts. By combining industry and farm level economic data, with geospatial information on agricultural land use, agroclimate, soils and irrigation practices within a GIS, this paper estimates the total financial benefit of outdoor irrigated production in England and Wales assuming no constraints in resource availability and optimal irrigation practices. The analysis suggests that the total net benefits of irrigation in a ‘design’ dry year are around £665 million, with an average irrigation water productivity in excess of £3.3 per m3 (close to £1.1 per m3 excluding soft fruit). Map outputs highlight significant regional differences in water productivity reflecting the composition of land use and the importance of crop mix in determining economic value. A sensitivity analysis to changes in agroclimate, market conditions (crop prices) and water supply (costs) illustrates how the benefits might change under contrasting scenario. The study highlights the importance of supplemental irrigation, even in a humid climate, and the risks that future droughts and/or constraints in water resource availability might have on agricultural systems, livelihoods and the rural economy. The implications for water resources and drought management are discussed.
Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess left atrial (LA) strain during long-term follow-up after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation and to find predictors for LA reverse remodeling. ...Background The association between LA reverse remodeling and improvement in LA strain after catheter ablation has not been investigated thus far. Methods In 148 patients undergoing catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation, LA volumes and LA strain were assessed with echocardiography at baseline and after a mean of 13.2 ± 6.7 months of follow-up. The study population was divided according to LA reverse remodeling at follow-up: responders were defined as patients who exhibited 15% or more reduction in maximum LA volume at long-term follow-up. Left atrial systolic (LAs) strain was assessed with tissue Doppler imaging. Results At follow-up, 93 patients (63%) were classified as responders, whereas 55 patients (37%) were nonresponders. At baseline, LAs strain was significantly higher in the responders as compared with the nonresponders (19 ± 8% vs. 14 ± 6%; p = 0.001). Among the responders, a significant increase in LAs strain was noted from baseline to follow-up (from 19 ± 8% to 22 ± 9%; p < 0.05), whereas no change was noted among the nonresponders. LAs strain at baseline was an independent predictor of LA reverse remodeling (odds ratio: 1.813; 95% confidence interval: 1.102 to 2.982; p = 0.019). Conclusions In the present study, 63% of the patients exhibited LA reverse remodeling after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation, with a concomitant improvement in LA strain. LA strain at baseline was an independent predictor of LA reverse remodeling.
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