Background Time of day has been associated with variations in certain clinical practices such as cancer screening rates. In this study, we assessed how more general process measures of physician ...activity, particularly rates of diagnostic test ordering and diagnostic assessments, might be affected by time of day. Methods We conducted a retrospective chart review of 3,342 appointments by 20 attending physicians at five outpatient clinics, matching appointments by physician and comparing the average diagnostic tests ordered and average diagnoses assessed per appointment in the first hour of the day versus the last hour of the day. Statistical analyses used sign tests, two-sample t-tests, Wilcoxon tests, Kruskal Wallis tests, and multivariate linear regression. Results Examining physicians individually, four and six physicians, respectively, had statistically significant first- versus last-hour differences in the number of diagnostic tests ordered and number of diagnoses assessed per patient visit (p less than or equal to 0.04). As a group, 16 of 20 physicians ordered more tests on average in the first versus last hour (p = 0.012 for equal chance to order more in each time period). Substantial intra-clinic heterogeneity was found in both outcomes for four of five clinics (p < 0.01). Conclusions There is some statistical evidence on an individual and group level to support the presence of time-of-day effects on the number of diagnostic tests ordered per patient visit. These findings suggest that time of day may be a factor influencing fundamental physician behavior and processes. Notably, many physicians exhibited significant variation in the primary outcomes compared to same-specialty peers. Additional work is necessary to clarify temporal and inter-physician variation in the outcomes of interest.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary Background Blood transfusion might affect long-term mortality by changing immune function and thus potentially increasing the risk of subsequent infections and cancer recurrence. Compared ...with a restrictive transfusion strategy, a more liberal strategy could reduce cardiac complications by lowering myocardial damage, thereby reducing future deaths from cardiovascular disease. We aimed to establish the effect of a liberal transfusion strategy on long-term survival compared with a restrictive transfusion strategy. Methods In the randomised controlled FOCUS trial, adult patients aged 50 years and older, with a history of or risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and with postoperative haemoglobin concentrations lower than 100 g/L within 3 days of surgery to repair a hip fracture, were eligible for enrolment. Patients were recruited from 47 participating hospitals in the USA and Canada, and eligible participants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio by a central telephone system to either liberal transfusion in which they received blood transfusion to maintain haemoglobin level at 100 g/L or higher, or restrictive transfusion in which they received blood transfusion when haemoglobin level was lower than 80 g/L or if they had symptoms of anaemia. In this study, we analysed the long-term mortality of patients assigned to the two transfusion strategies, which was a secondary outcome of the FOCUS trial. Long-term mortality was established by linking the study participants to national death registries in the USA and Canada. Treatment assignment was not masked, but investigators who ascertained mortality and cause of death were masked to group assignment. Analyses were by intention to treat. The FOCUS trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00071032. Findings Between July 19, 2004, and Feb 28, 2009, 2016 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to the two treatment groups: 1007 to the liberal transfusion strategy and 1009 to the restrictive transfusion strategy. The median duration of follow-up was 3·1 years (IQR 2·4–4·1 years), during which 841 (42%) patients died. Long-term mortality did not differ significantly between the liberal transfusion strategy (432 deaths) and the restrictive transfusion strategy (409 deaths) (hazard ratio 1·09 95% CI 0·95–1·25; p=0·21). Interpretation Liberal blood transfusion did not affect mortality compared with a restrictive transfusion strategy in a high-risk group of elderly patients with underlying cardiovascular disease or risk factors. The underlying causes of death did not differ between the trial groups. These findings do not support hypotheses that blood transfusion leads to long-term immunosuppression that is severe enough to affect long-term mortality rate by more than 20–25% or cause of death. Funding National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
This paper introduces a method which conditions on the number of events that occur in the control group to determine rejection regions and power for comparative Poisson trials with multiple ...experimental treatment arms that are each compared to one control arm. This leads to the negative multinomial as the statistical distribution used for testing. For one experimental treatment and one control with curtailed sampling, this is equivalent to Gail's (1974) approach. We provide formulas to calculate exact one‐sided overall Type I error and pointwise power for tests of treatment superiority and inferiority (vs the control). Tables of trial design parameters for combinations of one‐sided overall Type I error = 0.05, 0.01 and pointwise power = 0.90, 0.80 are provided. Curtailment approaches are presented to stop follow‐up of experimental treatment arms or to stop the study entirely once the final outcomes for each arm are known.
Emerging sexually transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been reported worldwide, with higher HCV infection rates among those who are HIV-infected. ...This study aims to determine prevalence of recent and chronic HCV infections among community-recruited MSM in New York City (NYC), map HCV infections by home, social, and sexual neighborhoods, and identify clusters of genetically linked HCV variants using phylogenetic analysis. The NYC M2M study recruited MSM via modified time-space, venue-based sampling and internet/mobile app-based recruitment during 2010-13. Participants completed a Google Earth map on neighborhoods of where they lived, socialized, and had sex in the last 3 months, an ACASI questionnaire, and a sexual network inventory about their sex partners. The men received HIV testing and provided serum samples. Testing on stored serum samples included HCV antibody and RNA viral load, HCV antibody avidity assay (avidity index <30% with positive viral load is considered recently infected), and HCV RNA extraction and amplification to generate a 432 base-pair region of Core/E1 for sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Historic local controls were included in the phylogenetic analysis. Of 1,028 MSM, 79.7% were HIV-negative and 20.3% HIV-positive. Twenty nine MSM (2.8%) were HCV antibody-positive. MSM who were HCV antibody-positive reported a median of 2 male sex partners in last 3 months, with 6.9% aged 18-24, 17.2% 25-29, 13.8% 30-39, and 62.1% 40 and over. 8.1% of HIV-positive MSM were HCV antibody-positive vs. 1.5% of HIV-negative men (p<0.0001). Of 29 HCV-antibody positive MSM, 12 (41%) were HCV RNA-positive (11 subtype 1a and 1 subtype 1b). Two of 12 HCV RNA-positive participants had low antibody avidity values, suggesting recent HCV infection. HCV antibody seropositivity was significantly associated with older age >40 years, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.56 (95% CI 1.57, 8.08), HIV-positive serostatus, aOR 3.18 (95% CI 1.40, 7.22), any sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the last 3 months, aOR 2.81 (95% CI 1.11, 7.13), and injection drug use (IDU) ever, aOR 4.34 (95% CI 1.69, 11.17). Mapping of HCV infections differed slightly by home, social, and sexual neighborhoods. Based on phylogenetic analysis from 12 HCV RNA-positive samples, no evidence of a clustered HCV epidemic was found. Overall HCV seroprevalence was 2.8% among community-recruited MSM in NYC, with higher prevalence among HIV-positive MSM compared to HIV-negative MSM. Only two participants were found to have recent HCV infection, with no evidence of a clustered HCV epidemic based on phylogenetic analysis. Our results support testing of HCV infection among HIV-negative MSM if they report having a recent STI and IDU in the past rather than universal HCV testing in all HIV-negative MSM.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Women living with HIV (WLHIV) have lower rates of contraceptive use than noninfected peers, yet concerns regarding contraceptive efficacy and interaction with antiretroviral therapy (ART) complicate ...counseling. Hormonal contraceptives may increase genital tract HIV viral load (gVL) and sexual transmission risk to male partners. We compared gVL, plasma VL (pVL), and intrauterine contraceptive (IUC) continuation between the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) and copper intrauterine device (C-IUD) in Cape Town, South Africa.
In this double-masked, randomized controlled noninferiority trial, eligible WLHIV were ages 18-40, not pregnant or desiring pregnancy within 30 months, screened and treated (as indicated) for reproductive tract infections (RTIs) within 1 month of enrollment, and virologically suppressed using ART or above treatment threshold at enrollment (non-ART). Between October 2013, and December 2016, we randomized consenting women within ART groups, using 1:1 permuted block randomization stratified by ART use, age (18-23, 24-31, 32-40), and recent injectable progestin contraceptive (IPC) exposure, and provided the allocated IUC. At all visits, participants provided specimens for gVL (primary outcome), pVL, RTI, and pregnancy testing. We assessed gVL and pVL across 6 and 24 months controlling for enrollment measures, ART group, age, and RTI using generalized estimating equation and generalized linear models (non-ART group pVL and hemoglobin) in as-treated analyses. We measured IUC discontinuation rates with Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models. We enrolled 71 non-ART (36 LNG-IUS, 31 C-IUD; 2 declined and 2 were ineligible) and 134 ART-using (65 LNG-IUS, 67 C-IUD; 1 declined and 1 could not complete IUC insertion) women. Participant median age was 31 years, and 95% had 1 or more prior pregnancies. Proportions of women with detectable gVL were not significantly different comparing LNG-IUS to C-IUD across 6 (adjusted odds ratio AOR: 0.78, 95% confidence interval CI 0.44-1.38, p = 0.39) and 24 months (AOR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.68-1.57, p = 0.88). Among ART users, proportions with detectable pVL were not significantly different at 6 (AOR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.37-1.86, p = 0.65) and 24 months (AOR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.49-1.81, p = 0.85), whereas among non-ART women, mean pVL was not significantly different at 6 months (-0.10 log10 copies/mL, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.10, p = 0.50) between LNG-IUS and C-IUD users. IUC continuation was 78% overall; C-IUD users experienced significantly higher expulsion (8% versus 1%, p = 0.02) and elective discontinuation (adjusted hazard ratio: 8.75, 95% CI 3.08-24.8, p < 0.001) rates. Sensitivity analysis adjusted for differential IUC discontinuation found similar gVL results. There were 39 serious adverse events (SAEs); SAEs believed to be directly related to IUC use (n = 7) comprised 3 pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) cases and 4 pregnancies with IUC in place with no discernible trend by IUC arm. Mean hemoglobin change was significantly higher among LNG-IUS users across 6 (0.57 g/dL, 95% CI 0.24-0.90; p < 0.001) and 24 months (0.71 g/dL, 95% CI 0.47-0.95; p < 0.001). Limitations included not achieving non-ART group sample size following change in ART treatment guidelines and truncated 24 months' outcome data, as 17 women were not yet eligible for their 24-month visit at study closure. Also, a change in VL assay during the study may have caused some discrepancy in VL values because of different limits of detection.
In this study, we found that the LNG-IUS did not increase gVL or pVL and had low levels of contraceptive failure and associated PID compared with the C-IUD among WLHIV. LNG-IUS users were significantly more likely to continue IUC use and had higher hemoglobin levels over time. The LNG-IUS appears to be a safe contraceptive with regard to HIV disease and may be a highly acceptable option for WLHIV.
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01721798.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Early HIV studies suggested protective associations of overweight against mortality, yet data are lacking for the era of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We evaluated associations ...of pre-HAART initiation body mass index (BMI) with mortality among HAART-using women.
Prospective study of time to death after HAART initiation among continuous HAART users in the Women's Interagency HIV Study. Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier and adjusted proportional hazards survival models assessed time to AIDS and non-AIDS death by last measured pre-HAART BMI.
Of 1428 continuous HAART users 39 (2.7%) were underweight, 521 (36.5%) normal weight, 441 (30.9%) overweight, and 427 (29.9%) obese at time of HAART initiation. A total of 322 deaths occurred during median follow-up of 10.4 years (IQR 5.9-14.6). Censoring at non-AIDS death, the highest rate of AIDS death was observed among underweight women (p = 0.0003 for all 4 categories). In multivariate models, women underweight prior to HAART died from AIDS more than twice as rapidly vs. normal weight women (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.03, 4.04); but being overweight or obese (vs. normal weight) was not independently associated with AIDS death. Cumulative incidence of non-AIDS death was similar across all pre-HAART BMI categories.
Among continuous HAART-using women, being overweight prior to initiation was not associated with lower risk of AIDS or non-AIDS death. Being underweight prior to HAART was associated with over double the rate of AIDS death in adjusted analyses. Although overweight and obesity may be associated with many adverse health conditions, neither was predictive of mortality among the HAART-using women.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
BACKGROUND
The only way to systematically screen for self‐neglect among older adults is through in‐home observations, which are often difficult and unfeasible for healthcare providers. To fill this ...gap, we need a robust and efficient prognostication tool to better treat and prevent self‐neglect among older adults.
OBJECTIVES
To develop a predictive index that can be used to assess risk prognostication of the onset of self‐neglect among community‐dwelling older populations.
DESIGN
Two waves of longitudinal data from the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP), collected during 2008 to 2012 with approximately 3‐year follow‐up intervals.
SETTING
Non‐Hispanic black or non‐Hispanic white community‐dwelling older adults in three adjacent neighborhoods in Chicago, IL.
PARTICIPANTS
A total of 2885 individuals who were participants of the CHAP study.
MEASUREMENTS
The main outcomes are incident self‐neglect cases. A total of 86 potential predictors were considered in the domains of sociodemographic and socioeconomic, general well‐being, health behavior, medical health, medicine/healthcare, cognitive function, physical well‐being, social well‐being, and psychological well‐being.
RESULTS
The 3‐year self‐neglect incidence rate is 241 (8.4%). A 10‐item predictive model (with a c‐statistic of 0.76) was developed using stepwise selection in multivariable logistical regression models. After corrections of overfitting by validating in 100 bootstrapping samples, the predictive accuracy of the model dropped to 0.71, suggesting at least moderate overfitting. A point‐based risk index was developed based on parameter estimates of each predictive factor in the final logistic model. The index has an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76.
CONCLUSION
The study developed an efficient index with good predictive ability of self‐neglect. Further external validation and impact studies are necessary before practitioners can apply this index to determine risk of self‐neglect among other community aging populations. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:809–816, 2020
Comparative Poisson trials of an experimental treatment versus a control typically condition on the total number of events that occur across both arms (Design A). Inference is based on the binomial ...distribution. Recently, an approach termed Design C to compare K experimental treatments to the same control was introduced. Under Design C without curtailment, the trial continues until a prespecified number of events occur in the control arm, leading to inference based on the negative multinomial distribution. The question remains of how advantageous it is to conduct one Design C trial comparing K experimental treatment arms to the same control arm as opposed to conducting K separate Design A trials each comparing one experimental treatment arm to a different control arm. This paper, therefore, compares the expected number of subjects to enroll for the two designs under uncurtailed and curtailed settings. The designs are evaluated when the null hypothesis and various assumptions for the alternative hypothesis hold. We simulate a variety of combinations for the Type 1 error, power, and ratio of the incidence rate of events in the experimental treatment to control arms. Design C frequently offers significant savings in terms of sample size relative to Design A.
Reproductive aging may impact the vaginal microbiome and genital tract mucosal immune environment and contribute to genital tract health in women living with and at-risk for HIV infection.
A ...cross-sectional study of 102 HIV+ (51 premenopausal, 51 postmenopausal) and 39 HIV-uninfected (HIV-) (20 premenopausal, 19 postmenopausal) women was performed in Bronx and Brooklyn, NY. Cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) was collected for quantification of innate antimicrobial activity against E. coli, HSV-2 and HIV and immune mediators by Luminex and ELISA. Microbiome studies by qPCR and 16S rRNA sequencing were performed on vaginal swabs.
HIV+ postmenopausal compared to premenopausal participants had lower median E. coli bactericidal activity (41% vs. 62%, p = 0.001), lower median gene copies of Lactobacillus crispatus (p = 0.005) and Lactobacillus iners (p = 0.019), lower proportions of Lactobacillus iners, higher proportions of Gardnerella and Atopobium vaginae and lower levels of human beta defensins (HBD-2, HBD-3) and secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor (SLPI), p<0.001. HSV-2 inhibitory activity was higher in HIV+ postmenopausal compared to premenopausal participants (37% vs. 17%, p = 0.001) and correlated with the proinflammatory molecules interleukin (IL) 6, IL-8, human neutrophil peptide (HNP) 1-3, lactoferrin and fibronectin. Similar trends were observed in HIV- postmenopausal compared to premenopausal participants. HIV inhibitory activity did not differ by reproductive status in the HIV+ participants but was significantly higher in HIV- postmenopausal compared to premenopausal participants and in participants with suppressed plasma viral load, and inversely correlated with gene copies of G. vaginalis and BVAB2. A significant proportion of HIV+ participants on ART exhibited HIV enhancing activity.
HIV+ postmenopausal compared to premenopausal participants have less CVL E. coli bactericidal activity, reflecting a reduction in Lactobacilli and a greater proportion of Gardnerella and A. vaginae, and more HSV-2 inhibitory activity, reflecting increased mucosal inflammation. The effect of menopause on mucosal immunity was greater in HIV+ participants, suggesting a synergistic impact. Promotion of a lactobacillus dominant vaginal microbiome and reduced mucosal inflammation may improve vaginal health and reduce risk for shedding of HIV and potential for HIV transmission in HIV+ menopausal women.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Loss to care is high among asymptomatic HIV-infected women initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy or in the postpartum period. However, whether pregnancy itself plays a role in ...the high loss to care rate is uncertain. We compared loss to care over seven years between pregnant and non-pregnant women at enrollment into HIV care in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
We conducted a retrospective analysis of all ART-naive women aged 15-45 initiating HIV care at two large clinics in Kinshasa, DRC, from 2007-2013. Pregnancy status was recorded at care enrollment. Patients were classified as having no follow-up if they did not return to care after the initial enrollment visit. Among those with at least one follow-up visit after enrollment, we classified patients as lost to care if more than 365 days had passed since their last clinic visit. We used logistic regression to model the association between pregnancy status and no follow-up, and Cox proportional hazards regression to model the association between pregnancy status and time to loss to care.
Of 2175 women included in the analysis, 1497 (68.8%) were pregnant at enrollment. Compared to non-pregnant women, pregnant women were less likely to be over 35 years of age (19.1% vs. 31.9%, p<0.0001) and less likely to be in WHO stage III or IV (9.0% vs. 26.3%, p<0.0001). Among pregnant women, 106 (7.1%) were not seen after enrollment, versus 25 (3.7%) non-pregnant women (adjusted odds ratio 2.01, 95% CI 1.24-3.24). Of the 2,044 women with at least one follow-up visit, 46.5% of pregnant women and 46.7% of non-pregnant women were lost to care by 5 years; hazards of loss to care were similar for pregnant and non-pregnant women (adjusted hazard ratio 1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.26).
In this large cohort of HIV-infected women, patients pregnant at care enrollment were more likely to never return for follow-up. Among those who attended at least one follow-up visit, loss to care was not different between pregnant and non-pregnant women, suggesting that pregnancy itself may not be the main driver of the high attrition observed in this cohort.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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