Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A ...clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.
Over land, most state‐of‐the‐art climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) share a strong summertime warm bias in midlatitude areas, especially in regions ...where the coupling between soil moisture and atmosphere is effective. The most biased models overestimate solar incoming radiation, because of cloud deficit and have difficulty to sustain evaporation. These deficiencies are also involved in the spread of the summer temperature projections among models in the midlatitude; the models which simulate a higher‐than‐average warming overestimate the present climate net shortwave radiation which increases more‐than‐average in the future, in link with a decrease of cloudiness. They also show a higher‐than‐average reduction of evaporative fraction in areas with soil moisture‐limited evaporation regimes. Over these areas, the most biased models in the present climate simulate a larger warming in response to climate change which is likely to be overestimated.
Key Points
Systematic summer warm biases in regions of strong soil‐atmosphere couplingMost biased models underestimate evaporative fraction and cloudsMost biased models show a stronger warming in climate change projections
In most atmospheric circulation models used for climate projections, cloud and convective processes are not explicitly resolved but parameterized. Such models are known to produce a diurnal cycle of ...continental thunderstorms in phase with insolation, while observed precipitation peaks in late afternoon. We propose a new approach which corrects this long standing bias of parameterized convection. In this approach, deep convection triggering and intensity are controlled by sub‐cloud processes: here boundary layer thermals and gust fronts, and potentially orography or surface heterogeneities. The representation of the diurnal cycle of deep convection is greatly improved in 1D mode, with rainfall maximum delayed from midday to late afternoon, provided parameterizations account for the key role played by shallow cumulus in preconditioning deep convection and by gust fronts in the self‐sustaining of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The Martian planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a crucial component of the Martian climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) and mesoscale models (MMs) lack the resolution to predict PBL mixing ...which is therefore parameterized. Here we propose to adapt the “thermal plume” model, recently developed for Earth climate modeling, to Martian GCMs, MMs, and single‐column models. The aim of this physically based parameterization is to represent the effect of organized turbulent structures (updrafts and downdrafts) on the daytime PBL transport, as it is resolved in large‐eddy simulations (LESs). We find that the terrestrial thermal plume model needs to be modified to satisfyingly account for deep turbulent plumes found in the Martian convective PBL. Our Martian thermal plume model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the thermal structure of the daytime PBL on Mars: superadiabatic near‐surface layer, mixing layer, and overshoot region at PBL top. This model is coupled to surface layer parameterizations taking into account stability and turbulent gustiness to calculate surface‐atmosphere fluxes. Those new parameterizations for the surface and mixed layers are validated against near‐surface lander measurements. Using a thermal plume model moreover enables a first‐order estimation of key turbulent quantities (e.g., PBL height and convective plume velocity) in Martian GCMs and MMs without having to run costly LESs.
Key Points
A terrestrial thermal plume model is adapted to Mars’ boundary layer convection
This new model reproduces caracteristics resolved through Large Eddy Simulations
Lander measurements can now be consistently reproduced in climate models
We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled ...Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
The design of the icosahedral dynamical core DYNAMICO is presented. DYNAMICO solves the multi-layer rotating shallow-water equations, a compressible variant of the same equivalent to a discretization ...of the hydrostatic primitive equations in a Lagrangian vertical coordinate, and the primitive equations in a hybrid mass-based vertical coordinate. The common Hamiltonian structure of these sets of equations is exploited to formulate energy-conserving spatial discretizations in a unified way. The horizontal mesh is a quasi-uniform icosahedral C-grid obtained by subdivision of a regular icosahedron. Control volumes for mass, tracers and entropy/potential temperature are the hexagonal cells of the Voronoi mesh to avoid the fast numerical modes of the triangular C-grid. The horizontal discretization is that of Ringler et al. (2010), whose discrete quasi-Hamiltonian structure is identified. The prognostic variables are arranged vertically on a Lorenz grid with all thermodynamical variables collocated with mass. The vertical discretization is obtained from the three-dimensional Hamiltonian formulation. Tracers are transported using a second-order finite-volume scheme with slope limiting for positivity. Explicit Runge-Kutta time integration is used for dynamics, and forward-in-time integration with horizontal/vertical splitting is used for tracers. Most of the model code is common to the three sets of equations solved, making it easier to develop and validate each piece of the model separately. Representative three-dimensional test cases are run and analyzed, showing correctness of the model. The design permits to consider several extensions in the near future, from higher-order transport to more general dynamics, especially deep-atmosphere and non-hydrostatic equations.
Latitudinal Distribution of Clouds on Titan Rannou, P; Montmessin, F; Hourdin, F ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
01/2006, Letnik:
311, Številka:
5758
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Clouds have been observed recently on Titan, through the thick haze, using near-infrared spectroscopy and images near the south pole and in temperate regions near 40°S. Recent telescope and Cassini ...orbiter observations are now providing an insight into cloud climatology. To study clouds, we have developed a general circulation model of Titan that includes cloud microphysics. We identify and explain the formation of several types of ethane and methane clouds, including south polar clouds and sporadic clouds in temperate regions and especially at 40° in the summer hemisphere. The locations, frequencies, and composition of these cloud types are essentially explained by the large-scale circulation.
A conditional sampling based on the combination of a passive tracer emitted at the surface and thermodynamic variables is proposed to characterise organized structures in large-eddy simulations of ...cloud-free and cloudy boundary layers. The sampling is evaluated against more traditional sampling of dry thermals or clouds. It enables the characterization of convective updrafts from the surface to the top of the boundary layer (or the top of cumulus clouds), describing in particular the transition from the sub-cloud to the cloud layer, and retrieves plume characteristics, entrainment and detrainment rates, variances and fluxes. This sampling is used to analyze the contribution of boundary-layer thermals to vertical fluxes and variances.
The conditional sampling of coherent structures in large-eddy simulations of the convective boundary layer (Couvreux et al. Boundary-layer Meteorol 134:441-458, 2010) is used to propose and evaluate ...formulations of fractional entrainment and detrainment rates for mass-flux schemes. The proposed formulations are physically-based and continuous from the surface to the top of clouds. Entrainment is related to the updraft vertical velocity divergence, while detrainment depends on the thermal vertical velocity, on buoyancy and on the moisture contrast between the mean plume and its environment. The proposed formulations are first directly evaluated in simulations of shallow clouds. They are then tested in single-column simulations with the thermal plume model, a mass-flux representation of boundary-layer thermals.
We provide a description and evaluation of LMDz‐INCA, which couples the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model (LMDz) and the Interaction with Chemistry and Aerosols (INCA) ...model. In this first version of the model a CH4−NOx−CO−O3 chemical scheme representative of the background chemistry of the troposphere is considered. We derive rapid interhemispheric exchange times of 1.13–1.38 years and 0.70–0.82 years, based on surface and pressure‐weighted mixing ratios of inert tracers, respectively. The general patterns of the nitrogen deposition are correctly reproduced by the model. However, scavenging processes remain a major source of uncertainty in current models, with convective precipitation playing a key role in the global distribution of soluble species. The global and annual mean methane (7.9 years) and methylchloroform (4.6 years) chemical lifetimes suggest that OH is too high by about 19–25% in the model. This disagreement with previous estimates is attributed to the missing nonmethane hydrocarbons in this version of the model. The model simulates quite satisfactorily the distribution and seasonal cycle of CO at most stations. At several tropical sites and in the Northern Hemisphere during summer, the OH overestimate leads, however, to a too intense CO chemical destruction. LMDz‐INCA reproduces fairly well the distribution of ozone throughout most of the troposphere. A main disagreement appears in the Northern Hemisphere upper troposphere during summer, due to a too high tropopause in the GCM. When the GCM winds are relaxed toward assimilated meteorology, a much higher variability is obtained for ozone in the upper troposphere, reflecting more frequent stratospheric intrusions. The stratospheric influx of ozone increases from 523 Tg/yr in the base case simulation to 783 Tg/yr in the nudged version.
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