Currently realizing the new active role of the region as a sustainable development entity is a strategic direction for regional policy’s development. Assessing the sustainable development of regions ...is an important part of such a policy and facilitates the timely identification of internal and external threats, the development of the necessary stabilization measures to prevent their negative impact, and the formation of strategies aimed at the sustainable functioning of regional systems. The economic system is an important subsystem of the region. The article proposes an approach to assess the level of regions economic development in the context of ensuring its sustainable development. It is based on comprehensive assessment technology. The sustainable economic development composite index is calculated by a weighted additive convolution of partial indicators. A feature of the proposed approach is the simultaneous use of both metric and nonmetric indicators. The metric component is used to calculate the composite index values. Weight coefficients are calculated by the principal component method using the factor loadings of the first principal component. The non-metric part of the initial data is used to refine these weights. The article describes the algorithm for calculating a composite index. The practical testing of the proposed approach is presented for the case Ukraine’s regions. The results lead to the conclusion about significant problems in ensuring sustainable development of the regional economy. Outcomes obtained are very helpful for the public administration bodies to develop and revise the appropriate policy for solving the sustainable development problems in each region.
The paper investigates the issues of evaluating structural changes in the regions’ economic development based on the comprehensive index assessment technology. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ...regional development and changes in the regional structure is considered. The authors propose the use of block convolution to design a comprehensive index based on a set of metric initial indicators that characterize the regions’ economic development. Grouping the set of initial indicators is carried out based on the method of an extreme grouping of parameters and the method of principal components. A weighted linear additive convolution was used to develop partial composite indices and an economic development comprehensive index. The practical approbation was carried out for the regions of Ukraine according to the data of 9 months of 2019 and the same period of 2020. To establish the regions’ structure, we used the division of the comprehensive index values into intervals and further distributing regions into classes according to the level of economic development. There is a general decrease in the value of the integrated indicator in 2020, caused by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, no significant changes in the structure of the regions were detected, which indicates an equally negative impact of the pandemic for all regions of Ukraine.
The article proposes an economic-mathematical model for determining a comprehensive risk assessment of the investment project of the enterprise which are based on the approaches of A. Nedosekin. The ...model is built using fuzzy logic and takes into account the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks and the level of impact of each of them on the project. The probability of risk is set by experts in the form of points and converted into linguistic terms, and the level of influence of each of them on the project – the ratio of benefits and is determined using Fishburne scales. The proposed Project Risk Model consists of the following stages: formation of initial data using expert opinions; construction of a hierarchical project risk tree; determination of weight coefficients (Fishburne weights) of project risks; selection and description of membership function and linguistic variables; conversion of input data provided by experts from a score scale into linguistic terms; recognition of qualitative input data on a linguistic scale; determination of a complex indicator of investment project risks; interpretation of a complex indicator. The developed model allows managing the risks of the project to maximize the probability of its successful implementation, to compare alternative projects and choose less risky, to minimize the level of unforeseen costs of the project.
Addressing socio-economic development issues are strategic and most important for any country. Multidimensional statistical analysis methods, including comprehensive index assessment, have been ...successfully used to address this challenge, but they donchr('39')t cover all aspects of development, leaving some gap in the development of multidimensional metrics. The purpose of the study is to construct a latent metric space based on the use of multidimensional scaling. Based on statistics showing the economic development of Ukrainian regions, two-dimensional space of latent scales was constructed and Ukrainianchr('39')s regions were positioned in this space. The results were interpreted meaningfully. This use of multidimensional statistical analysis confirms its usefulness for measuring the economic development of regions and allows their comprehensive assessment and comparison.
Modern economic realities of Ukraine in the conditions of growing destabilizing influences of external and internal environment convincingly prove that each year the influence of various threats on ...the level of financial security of economic entities increases. This necessitates constant monitoring of the financial security level in order to timely detect and neutralize possible crisis phenomena as a result of its decrease. The study aims to assess the financial security level of enterprises based on the theory of comprehensive assessment. The scientific and methodical approach to design a composite index of financial security and the identifying its level based on the double use of Harrington's desirability scale is proposed. The resulting model was tested on the particular enterprise data. The proposed approach may be used for another set of partial indicators, as well as in assessing the level of financial security at the national level. The results of the study may serve as the basis for making managerial decisions on raising the business entities financial security level and public administration.
To ensure the sustainable development of an enterprise, it is necessary to properly analyze the enterprise development, to ground the plans and management decisions on effective diagnostics and ...prediction of current and future economic situation at the enterprise. The article presents a study on the application of fuzzy time series forecasting methods. A new approach is applied to forecasting an enterprise's net income using a fuzzy technique. For testing the methodology, there were used statistical data on the enterprise net income level of the Ukrainian enterprise from 2002 to 2017. In the method of Stevenson and Potter, it is proposed to use as the universe of discourse, in the process of applying the method for all defined fuzzy sets, the intervals of variation of such indicator as growth rate. The same background as in Stevenson and Porter’s model is used in this article for forecasting the time series levels using the growth rates of the actual data as the universe of discourse. The forecasting results, obtained by this approach, are supposed to have more accuracy rate than other fuzzy time series models. Some modifications of this technique are proposed to obtain a higher accuracy rate and a point forecast one step forward.
The country's investment attractiveness is one of the determining factors in attracting investment into the economy. The study emphasizes the relevance of research in this area. The article considers ...the dynamics of foreign direct investment in Ukraine's economy as one of the determining indicators of investment attractiveness. The place of Ukraine in the "pandemic" period in the rankings of various world institutions whose activities are related to research in the field of investment is analyzed. Low ratings of Ukraine are established, the factors which have caused such results are defined. Despite the generally negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the socio-economic system of the country, it was concluded that in such conditions, certain industries, including agriculture, construction, IT industry, transport, and logistics, have received prospects for their development. The article identifies positive trends in the institutional sphere, in particular, the adoption of a number of important bills that will facilitate business in Ukraine, resume cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, adoption of economic development programs, including the National Economic Strategy until 2030. This will stimulate investment in Ukraine's economy.
Management of agricultural production in a market environment requires continuous improvement of approaches and methods for solving this problem. Strategic and tactical planning becomes a part of ...effective management of a market economy and deserves special attention. Adoption of grounded managerial decisions in the agrarian sector economy requires the identification of a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the capacity that will contribute to the identification of promising goals and the development of a rational strategy for their achievement. The given task can be solved by using the toolkit of economic and mathematical modeling, in particular the methodology of integral assessment. The subject of the study in the article is the toolkit for a comprehensive assessment of agrarian capacity. The aim of the article is to calculate and identify the level of agricultural capacity of the Khmelnytskyi region, analyze its dynamics and identify trends in its change. The common scientific methods are used like system analysis – for identifying components of agrarian capacity; statistical analysis – for identifying dynamics of agrarian capacity components; method of integral index – to identify the level of agrarian capacity; method of comparison – for assessing efficiency of use of capacity. The results are obtained: the assessment of agrarian capacity of Khmelnytskyi region during 2012-2016is carried out; trends of changing it components are analyzed; the effectiveness of it use is studied; It was found out that mainly the activities of the agrarian sector are ensured through the effective use of resources. Conclusions: calculated assesses of agrarian capacity end trends of it changes are proposed to take into account by State Bodies of Khmelnytskyi region when the strategy of social and economic development is created and improved.
Forecasting Indicators of the Region Intellectual Potential Pavlo Hryhoruk; Inna Chaikovska; Oksana Proskurovych ...
Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Innovations in IT,
03/2024, Letnik:
12, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Odprti dostop
This study established that in the conditions of Russian aggression, one of the most important factors for the recovery of Ukraine's economy is the effective use and multiplication of the existing ...intellectual potential of the regions. It was determined that the main structural elements of the intellectual potential of the region are educational, scientific and innovative potential. Fractal analysis and forecasting of key indicators of the intellectual potential of the region were carried out. Within the framework of the educational potential of the region, the following indicators were studied: the coverage of children in preschool education institutions, the number of graduate students, the number of students in general secondary education institutions, the number of teachers in general secondary education institutions, the number of students and trainees in vocational and vocational education institutions. As part of the scientific potential, the indicator of the number of employees involved in the performance of scientific research and development was considered. Within the framework of innovation potential - the specific weight of enterprises that introduced innovations and the number of implemented new technological processes. As a result of the conducted fractal analysis, it was established that all indicators belong to the anti-persistent type of time series. Therefore, the method of exponential smoothing and moving average was used as forecasting. A negative trend in the development of the component indicators of the intellectual potential of the region was revealed. This requires appropriate decisive actions on the part of the authorities in order to activate and grow the educational, scientific and innovative potential, which will lead to the improvement of the indicator of the intellectual potential of the region and its positive impact on the indicators of economic efficiency.
Addressing socio-economic development issues are strategic and most important for any country. Multidimensional statistical analysis methods, including comprehensive index assessment, have been ...successfully used to address this challenge, but they don't cover all aspects of development, leaving some gap in the development of multidimensional metrics. The purpose of the study is to construct a latent metric space based on the use of multidimensional scaling. Based on statistics showing the economic development of Ukrainian regions, two-dimensional space of latent scales was constructed and Ukrainian's regions were positioned in this space. The results were interpreted meaningfully. This use of multidimensional statistical analysis confirms its usefulness for measuring the economic development of regions and allows their comprehensive assessment and comparison.
PDF
