Inferential research commonly involves identification of causal factors from within high dimensional data but selection of the 'correct' variables can be problematic. One specific problem is that ...results vary depending on statistical method employed and it has been argued that triangulation of multiple methods is advantageous to safely identify the correct, important variables. To date, no formal method of triangulation has been reported that incorporates both model stability and coefficient estimates; in this paper we develop an adaptable, straightforward method to achieve this. Six methods of variable selection were evaluated using simulated datasets of different dimensions with known underlying relationships. We used a bootstrap methodology to combine stability matrices across methods and estimate aggregated coefficient distributions. Novel graphical approaches provided a transparent route to visualise and compare results between methods. The proposed aggregated method provides a flexible route to formally triangulate results across any chosen number of variable selection methods and provides a combined result that incorporates uncertainty arising from between-method variability. In these simulated datasets, the combined method generally performed as well or better than the individual methods, with low error rates and clearer demarcation of the true causal variables than for the individual methods.
To describe the prevalence, clinical and imaging characteristics, and surgical utility of large internal limiting membrane (ILM) tears in eyes with epiretinal membrane (ERM).
Retrospective ...interventional case series.
This was a single-institution study including 71 eyes of 70 consecutive patients that underwent ERM peeling by a single vitreoretinal surgeon between 2016 and 2019. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the medical record. ERMs and large ILM tears were identified and analyzed on multimodal imaging. The main outcome measures were the prevalence and characteristics of large ILM tears in eyes undergoing ERM peeling.
Large ILM tears were present in 23 of 71 eyes (32.4%) with ERM that underwent surgical management. A review of patients with ERM during the same period who did not undergo surgical management found large ILM tears in 8 of 100 eyes (8.0%). Large ILM tears were commonly associated with other signs of ERM-induced retinal traction, including retinal nerve fiber layer schisis in 20 of 23 eyes (87.0%), inner retinal dimpling in 8 of 23 eyes (34.8%), and discrete paravascular red lesions in 16 of 19 eyes (84.2%). In all eyes stained with brilliant blue G, the preoperative diagnosis of large ILM tear was confirmed and the scrolled ILM edge was used successfully to initiate ILM peeling.
Large ILM tears are often present in eyes undergoing surgery for ERM and are likely caused by ERM contracture. Careful preoperative identification of these tears is helpful for surgical planning because the scrolled flap of ILM provides a convenient and safe “handle” for initiating membrane peeling.
•Epiretinal membrane (ERM) is a pathologic condition commonly encountered in retina clinics.•Dehiscences of the internal limiting membrane (ILM) can be associated with ERM.•This study characterizes these large ILM tears and their associated findings.•Tangential traction from ERM contracture likely causes ILM tears.•Large ILM tears provide a convenient and safe “handle” to initiate membrane peeling.
Neonatal calves are relatively susceptible to heat loss, and previous research suggests that reduced environmental temperatures are associated with reduced average daily gain (ADG) during the ...preweaning phase. Current methods of mitigating negative effects of colder environmental conditions include the use of calf jackets and the provision of supplementary heat sources; however, previous research is limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of calf jackets and 1-kW heat lamps on the growth rates of preweaning calves and evaluate associations between environmental temperature and ADG using a Bayesian approach to incorporate both current and previous data. Seventy-nine calves from a single British dairy farm were randomly allocated at birth to 1 of the following 4 groups: no jacket and no heat lamp, heat lamp but no jacket, jacket but no heat lamp, or both heat lamp and jacket between January and April of 2021. Calves were weighed at both birth and at approximately 21 d of age. Temperature was recorded both inside and outside of the calf building, and in pens both with and without heat lamps using data loggers. To explore the effect of treatment group and environmental temperature on ADG, a fixed effects model was fitted over 1,000 bootstrap samples. The effect of environmental temperature on ADG was further explored within a Bayesian framework that used temperature and ADG data for 484 calves from 16 farms available from a previous trial as prior information. Calves housed under a 1-kW heat lamp had an increased ADG of 0.09 kg/d (95% bootstrap confidence interval: −0.02 to 0.20 kg/d), and no effect of jacket or interactions between jacket and heat lamp were found. A significant positive association was identified between the mean environmental temperature of the calf building and ADG, with a 1°C increase in temperature being associated with a 0.03 kg/d increase in ADG (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 0.01 to 0.04 kg/d). Associations between environmental temperature and ADG were further evaluated within a Bayesian framework, and posterior estimates were 0.014 kg/d of ADG per 1°C increase (95% credible interval: 0.009 to 0.021 kg/d). This study demonstrated that a 1-kW heat lamp was effective in increasing ADG in calves, and no significant effect of calf jacket on ADG was found. A significant, positive effect of increased pen temperature on calf ADG was identified in this study and was reinforced when including prior information from previous research within a Bayesian framework.
Background
The aim of the study was to describe the longitudinal dynamics of antimicrobial use (AMU) on sheep farms and explore associations between AMU and management factors, vaccination ...strategies, reproductive performance and prevalence of lameness.
Methods
Antimicrobial supply data were collected for 272 British sheep farms for 3–6 consecutive years between 2015 and 2021. These data were obtained from the farms' veterinary practices.
Results
Annual median AMU ranged from 8.1 to 11.8 mg/kg population corrected unit. AMU was skewed in each year with a small proportion of very high users. AMU within farms varied substantially between years. High AMU farms in 1 year were not necessarily high in other years. No associations between AMU and either vaccine usage or lameness prevalence were found.
Limitations
The study design requires veterinarians and farmers to volunteer their data. This unavoidably introduces the potential for a participation bias.
Conclusions
AMU on sheep farms is generally low, with a small number of farms being responsible for high usage. Targeting antimicrobial stewardship effort towards the small minority of persistently high users may be more appropriate than a focus on generic, industry‐wide attempts to reduce overall AMU.
Previous research has identified key factors associated with improved average daily gain (ADG) in preweaning dairy calves and these factors have been combined to create a web app–based calf health ...plan (www.nottingham.ac.uk/herdhealthtoolkit). A randomized controlled trial was conducted to determine the effect of implementing this evidence-based calf health plan on both productivity and health outcomes for calves reared on British dairy farms. Sixty dairy farms were randomized by location (North, South, and Midlands) to either receive the plan at the beginning (INT) or after the end of the trial (CON) and recorded birth and weaning weights by weigh tape, and cases of morbidity and mortality. Calf records were returned for 3,593 calves from 45 farms (21 CON, 24 INT), with 1,760 calves from 43 farms having 2 weights recorded >40 d apart for ADG calculations, with 1,871 calves from 43 farms born >90 d before the end of the trial for morbidity and mortality calculations. Associations between both intervention group and the number of interventions in place with ADG were analyzed using linear regression models. Morbidity and mortality rates were analyzed using beta regression models. Mean ADG was 0.78 kg/d, ranging from 0.33 to 1.13 kg/d, with mean rates of 20.12% (0–96.55%), 16.40% (0–95.24%), and 4.28% (0–18.75%) for diarrhea, pneumonia, and mortality. The INT farms were undertaking a greater number of interventions (9.9) by the end of the trial than CON farms (7.6). Mean farm ADG was higher for calves on INT farms than CON farms for both male beef (MB, +0.22 kg/d) and dairy heifer (DH, +0.03 kg/d) calves. The MB calves on INT farms had significantly increased mean ADG (0.12 kg/d, 95% confidence interval: 0.02–0.22) compared with CON farms. No significant differences were observed between intervention groups for morbidity or mortality. Implementing one additional intervention from the plan, regardless of intervention group, was associated with improvements in mean ADG for DH calves of 0.01 kg/d (0.01, 0–0.03) and MB calves of 0.02 kg/d (0.00–0.04). Model predictions suggest that a farm with the highest number of interventions in place (15) compared with farms with the lowest number of interventions in place (4) would expect an improvement in growth rates from 0.65 to 0.81 kg/d for MB, from 0.73 to 0.88 kg/d for DH, a decrease in mortality rates from 10.9% to 2.8% in MB, and a decrease in diarrhea rates from 42.1% to 15.1% in DH. The calf health plan tested in this study represents a useful tool to aid veterinarians and farmers in the implementation of effective management interventions likely to improve the growth rates, health, and welfare of preweaning calves on dairy farms.
The preweaning period is vital in the development of calves on dairy farms and improving daily liveweight gain (DLWG) is important to both financial and carbon efficiency; minimising rearing costs ...and improving first lactation milk yields. In order to improve DLWG, veterinary advisors should provide advice that has both a large effect size as well as being consistently important on the majority of farms. Whilst a variety of factors have previously been identified as influencing the DLWG of preweaned calves, it can be challenging to determine their relative importance, which is essential for optimal on-farm management decisions. Regularised regression methods such as ridge or lasso regression provide a solution by penalising variable coefficients unless there is a proportional improvement in model performance. Elastic net regression incorporates both lasso and ridge penalties and was used in this research to provide a sparse model to accommodate strongly correlated predictors and provide robust coefficient estimates. Sixty randomly selected British dairy farms were enrolled to collect weigh tape data from preweaned calves at birth and weaning, resulting in data being available for 1014 calves from 30 farms after filtering to remove poor quality data, with a mean DLWG of 0.79 kg/d (range 0.49–1.06 kg/d, SD 0.13). Farm management practices (e.g. colostrum, feeding, hygiene protocols), building dimensions, temperature/humidity and colostrum quality/bacteriology data were collected, resulting in 293 potential variables affecting farm level DLWG. Bootstrapped elastic net regression models identified 17 variables as having both a large effect size and high stability. Increasing the maximum preweaned age within the first housing group (0.001 kg/d per 1d increase, 90 % bootstrap confidence interval (BCI): 0.000−0.002), increased mean environmental temperature within the first month of life (0.012 kg/d per 1 °C increase, 90 % BCI: 0.002−0.037) and increased mean volume of milk feeding (0.012 kg/d per 1 L increase, 90 % BCI: 0.001−0.024) were associated with increased DLWG. An increase in the number of days between the cleaning out of calving pen (-0.001 kg/d per 1d increase, 90 % BCI: -0.001−0.000) and group housing pens (-0.001 kg/d per 1d increase, 90 % BCI: -0.002−0.000) were both associated with decreased DLWG. Through bootstrapped elastic net regression, a small number of stable variables have been identified as most likely to have the largest effect size on DLWG in preweaned calves. Many of these variables represent practical aspects of management with a focus around stocking demographics, milk/colostrum feeding, environmental hygiene and environmental temperature; these variables should now be tested in a randomised controlled trial to elucidate causality.
National bodies in Great Britain (GB) have expressed concern over young stock health and welfare and identified calf survival as a priority; however, no national data have been available to quantify ...mortality rates. The aim of this study was to quantify the temporal incidence rate, distributional features, and factors affecting variation in mortality rates in calves in GB since 2011. The purpose was to provide information to national stakeholder groups to inform resource allocation both for knowledge exchange and future research. Cattle birth and death registrations from the national British Cattle Movement Service were analyzed to determine rates of both slaughter and on-farm mortality. The number of births and deaths registered between 2011 and 2018 within GB were 21.2 and 21.6 million, respectively. Of the 3.3 million on-farm deaths, 1.8 million occurred before 24 mo of age (54%) and 818,845 (25%) happened within the first 3 mo of age. The on-farm mortality rate was 3.87% by 3 mo of age, remained relatively stable over time, and was higher for male calves (4.32%) than female calves (3.45%). Dairy calves experience higher on farm mortality rates than nondairy (beef) calves in the first 3 mo of life, with 6.00 and 2.86% mortality rates, respectively. The 0- to 3-mo death rate at slaughterhouse for male dairy calves has increased from 17.40% in 2011 to 26.16% in 2018, and has remained low (<0.5%) for female dairy calves and beef calves of both sexes. Multivariate adaptive regression spline models were able to explain a large degree of the variation in mortality rates (coefficient of determination = 96%). Mean monthly environmental temperature and month of birth appeared to play an important role in neonatal on-farm mortality rates, with increased temperatures significantly reducing mortality rates. Taking the optimal month of birth and environmental temperature as indicators of the best possible environmental conditions, maintaining these conditions throughout the year would be expected to result in a reduction in annual 0- to 3-mo mortality of 37,571 deaths per year, with an estimated economic saving of around £11.6 million (USD $15.3 million) per annum. National cattle registers have great potential for monitoring trends in calf mortality and can provide valuable insights to the cattle industry. Environmental conditions play a significant role in calf mortality rates and further research is needed to explore how to optimize conditions to reduce calf mortality rates in GB.
Summary Background The efficacy of natalizumab on clinical and radiological measures in the phase III Natalizumab Safety and Efficacy in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (AFFIRM) study has ...prompted the investigation of whether natalizumab can increase the proportion of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who do not have disease activity. Methods Post-hoc analyses of data from the AFFIRM study were done to determine the effects of natalizumab compared with placebo on the proportion of patients who were free of disease activity over 2 years. Absence of disease activity was defined as no activity on clinical measures (no relapses and no sustained disability progression), radiological measures (no gadolinium-enhancing lesions and no new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions on cranial MRI), or a composite of the two. Findings 383 (64%) of 596 patients taking natalizumab and 117 (39%) of 301 taking placebo were free of clinical disease activity (absolute difference 25·4%, 95% CI 18·7–32·1%, p<0·0001); 342 (58%) of 593 and 42 (14%) of 296 were free of radiological disease activity (43·5%, 37·9–49·1%, p<0·0001); and 220 (37%) of 600 and 22 (7%) of 304 were free of combined activity (29·5%, 24·7–34·3%, p<0·0001) over 2 years. The effect of natalizumab versus placebo was consistent across subgroups of patients with highly active or non-highly active disease at baseline. Interpretation Disease remission might become an increasingly attainable goal in multiple sclerosis treatment with the use of newer, more effective therapies. Funding Biogen Idec.
Lameness in dairy cattle is a highly prevalent condition that impacts on the health and welfare of dairy cows. Prompt detection and implementation of effective treatment is important for managing ...lameness. However, major limitations are associated with visual assessment of lameness, which is the most commonly used method to detect lameness. The aims of this study were to investigate the use of metabolomics and machine learning to develop novel methods to detect lameness. Untargeted metabolomics using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) alongside machine learning models and a stability selection method were utilized to evaluate the predictive accuracy of differences in the metabolomics profile of first-lactation dairy cows before (during the transition period) and at the time of lameness (based on visual assessment using the 0–3 scale of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board). Urine samples were collected from 2 cohorts of dairy heifers and stored at −86°C before analysis using LC-MS. Cohort 1 (n = 90) cows were recruited as current first-lactation cows with weekly mobility scores recorded over a 4-mo timeframe, from which newly lame and nonlame cows were identified. Cohort 2 (n = 30) cows were recruited within 3 wk before calving, and lameness events (based on mobility score) were recorded through lactation until a minimum of 70 d in milk (DIM). All cows were matched paired by DIM ± 14 d. The median DIM at lameness identification was 187.5 and 28.5 for cohort 1 and 2, respectively. The best performing machine learning models predicted lameness at the time of lameness with an accuracy of between 81 and 82%. Using stability selection, the prediction accuracy at the time of lameness was 80 to 81%. For samples collected before and after calving, the best performing machine learning model predicted lameness with an accuracy of 71 and 75%, respectively. The findings from this study demonstrate that untargeted LC-MS profiling combined with machine learning methods can be used to predict lameness as early as before calving and before observable changes in gait in first-lactation dairy cows. The methods also provide accuracies for detecting lameness at the time of observable changes in gait of up to 82%. The findings demonstrate that these methods could provide substantial advancements in the early prediction and prevention of lameness risk. Further external validation work is required to confirm these findings are generalizable; however, this study provides the basis from which future work can be conducted.
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