The hydro-ecological impacts of 40 UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios on a restored lowland England river floodplain are assessed using a MIKE SHE / MIKE 11 model. Annual precipitation declines ...for 60% of scenarios (range: -26%–21%, with small, <5%, declines for the central probability level). Potential evapotranspiration increases for all probability levels except the most extreme, very unlikely, 10% level (range: -4%–43%, central probability 9%–20%) Mean, peak and low river discharges are reduced for all but the extreme 90% probability level. Reduced frequency of bankfull discharge dominates (at least halved for the central probability level). Floodplain inundation declines for over 97% of 320 scenario-events. Winter water table levels still intercept the surface, while mean and summer low levels are reduced. Declines in mean summer floodplain water table levels for the central probability level (0.22 m and 0.28 m for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively) are twice as large as those in the more dynamic riparian area. Declines reach 0.39 m for some 10% probability level scenarios. Simulated hydrological changes differ subtly from a previous assessment using earlier UK climate projections. A soil aeration stress index demonstrates that, under baseline conditions, prolonged high winter floodplain water tables drive long periods of low root-zone oxygen, in turn favouring vegetation communities adapted to waterlogged conditions. Climate change reduces aeration stress and the extent of appropriate conditions for these plant communities in favour of communities less tolerant of wet conditions.
Thirty UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) scenarios are simulated using a MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model of a restored floodplain in eastern England. Annual precipitation exhibits uncertainty in direction ...of change. Extreme changes (10 and 90% probability) range between −27 and +30%. The central probability projects small declines (<−4%). Wetter winters and drier summers predominate. Potential evapotranspiration increases for most scenarios (annual range of change: −41 to +2%). Declines in mean discharge predominate (range: −41 to +25%). Reductions of 11-17% are projected for the central probability. High and low flows, and the frequency of bankfull discharge exceedence reduce in most cases. Duration of winter high floodplain water tables declines. Summer water tables are on average at least 0.11 and 0.18 m lower for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Flood extent declines in most scenarios. Drier conditions will likely induce ecological responses including impacts on floodplain vegetation.
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