Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are ...typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
With the onset of prevention trials for individuals at high risk for Alzheimer disease, there is increasing need for accurate risk prediction to inform study design and enrollment, but available risk ...estimates are limited. We developed risk estimates for the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia among cognitively unimpaired individuals by APOE-e4 dose for the genetic disclosure process of the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Study, a prevention trial in cognitively unimpaired APOE-e4/e4 homozygote individuals.
We included cognitively unimpaired individuals aged 60-75 y, consistent with Generation Study eligibility criteria, from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) (n = 5,073, 158 APOE-e4/e4), the Rotterdam Study (n = 6,399, 156 APOE-e4/e4), the Framingham Heart Study (n = 4,078, 67 APOE-e4/e4), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (SALSA) (n = 1,294, 11 APOE-e4/e4). We computed stratified cumulative incidence curves by age (60-64, 65-69, 70-75 y) and APOE-e4 dose, adjusting for the competing risk of mortality, and determined risk of MCI and/or dementia by genotype and baseline age. We also used subdistribution hazard regression to model relative hazard based on age, APOE genotype, sex, education, family history of dementia, vascular risk, subjective memory concerns, and baseline cognitive performance. The four cohorts varied considerably in age, education, ethnicity/race, and APOE-e4 allele frequency. Overall, cumulative incidence was uniformly higher in NACC than in the population-based cohorts. Among APOE-e4/e4 individuals, 5-y cumulative incidence was as follows: in the 60-64-y age stratum, it ranged from 0% to 5.88% in the three population-based cohorts versus 23.06% in NACC; in the 65-69-y age stratum, from 9.42% to 10.39% versus 34.62%; and in the 70-75-y age stratum, from 18.64% to 33.33% versus 38.34%. Five-year incidence of dementia was negligible except for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and those over 70 y. Lifetime incidence (to age 80-85 y) of MCI or dementia for the APOE-e4/e4 individuals in the long-term Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts was 34.69%-38.45% at age 60-64 y, 30.76%-40.26% at 65-69 y, and 33.3%-35.17% at 70-75 y. Confidence limits for these estimates are often wide, particularly for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and for the dementia outcome at 5 y. In regression models, APOE-e4 dose and age both consistently increased risk, as did lower education, subjective memory concerns, poorer baseline cognitive performance, and family history of dementia. We discuss several limitations of the study, including the small numbers of APOE-e4/e4 individuals, missing data and differential dropout, limited ethnic and racial diversity, and differences in definitions of exposure and outcome variables.
Estimates of the absolute risk of MCI or dementia, particularly over short time intervals, are sensitive to sampling and a variety of methodological factors. Nonetheless, such estimates were fairly consistent across the population-based cohorts, and lower than those from a convenience cohort and those estimated in prior studies-with implications for informed consent and design for clinical trials targeting high-risk individuals.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Southern Louisiana is characterized by low-lying topography and an extensive network of sounds, bays, marshes, lakes, rivers, and inlets that permit widespread inundation during hurricanes. ...A basin- to channel-scale implementation of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) unstructured grid hydrodynamic model has been developed that accurately simulates hurricane storm surge, tides, and river flow in this complex region. This is accomplished by defining a domain and computational resolution appropriate for the relevant processes, specifying realistic boundary conditions, and implementing accurate, robust, and highly parallel unstructured grid numerical algorithms.
The model domain incorporates the western North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea so that interactions between basins and the shelf are explicitly modeled and the boundary condition specification of tidal and hurricane processes can be readily defined at the deep water open boundary. The unstructured grid enables highly refined resolution of the complex overland region for modeling localized scales of flow while minimizing computational cost. Kinematic data assimilative or validated dynamic-modeled wind fields provide the hurricane wind and pressure field forcing. Wind fields are modified to incorporate directional boundary layer changes due to overland increases in surface roughness, reduction in effective land roughness due to inundation, and sheltering due to forested canopies. Validation of the model is achieved through hindcasts of Hurricanes Betsy and Andrew. A model skill assessment indicates that the computed peak storm surge height has a mean absolute error of 0.30 m.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Cannabis use in pregnancy is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes, which are likely mediated by the placenta. However, the underlying mechanisms and specific vasoactive effects of cannabis on ...the placenta are unknown. Our objective was to determine the impact of chronic prenatal delta-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC, main psychoactive component of cannabis) exposure on placental function and development in a rhesus macaque model using advanced imaging. Animals were divided into two groups, control (CON, n = 5) and THC-exposed (THC, n = 5). THC-exposed animals received a THC edible daily pre-conception and throughout pregnancy. Animals underwent serial ultrasound and MRI at gestational days 85 (G85), G110, G135 and G155 (full term is ~ G168). Animals underwent cesarean delivery and placental collection at G155 for histologic and RNA-Seq analysis. THC-exposed pregnancies had significantly decreased amniotic fluid volume (p < 0.001), placental perfusion (p < 0.05), and fetal oxygen availability (p < 0.05), all indicators of placental insufficiency. Placental histological analysis demonstrated evidence of ischemic injury with microinfarctions present in THC-exposed animals only. Bulk RNA-seq demonstrated that THC alters the placental transcriptome and pathway analysis suggests dysregulated vasculature development and angiogenesis pathways. The longer-term consequences of these adverse placental findings are unknown, but they suggest that use of THC during pregnancy may deleteriously impact offspring development.
We integrated coral reef connectivity data for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into a conservation decision-making framework for designing a regional scale marine protected area (MPA) network that ...provides insight into ecological and political contexts. We used an ocean circulation model and regional coral reef data to simulate eight spawning events from 2008-2011, applying a maximum 30-day pelagic larval duration and 20% mortality rate. Coral larval dispersal patterns were analyzed between coral reefs across jurisdictional marine zones to identify spatial relationships between larval sources and destinations within countries and territories across the region. We applied our results in Marxan, a conservation planning software tool, to identify a regional coral reef MPA network design that meets conservation goals, minimizes underlying threats, and maintains coral reef connectivity. Our results suggest that approximately 77% of coral reefs identified as having a high regional connectivity value are not included in the existing MPA network. This research is unique because we quantify and report coral larval connectivity data by marine ecoregions and Exclusive Economic Zones (EZZ) and use this information to identify gaps in the current Caribbean-wide MPA network by integrating asymmetric connectivity information in Marxan to design a regional MPA network that includes important reef network connections. The identification of important reef connectivity metrics guides the selection of priority conservation areas and supports resilience at the whole system level into the future.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Connectivity among marine populations is critical for persistence of metapopulations, coping with climate change, and determining the geographic distribution of species. The influence of pelagic ...larval duration (PLD) on connectivity has been studied extensively, but relatively little is known about the influence of other biological parameters, such as the survival and behavior of larvae, and the fecundity of adults, on population connectivity. Furthermore, the interaction between the seascape (habitat structure and currents) and these biological parameters is unclear. We explore these interactions using a biophysical model of larval dispersal across the Indo-Pacific. We describe an approach that quantifies geographic patterns of connectivity from demographically relevant to evolutionarily significant levels across a range of species. We predict that at least 95% of larval settlement occurs within 155 km of the source population and within 13 days irrespective of the species' life history, yet long-distant connections remain likely. Self-recruitment is primarily driven by the local oceanography, larval mortality, and the larval precompetency period, whereas broad-scale connectivity is strongly influenced by reproductive output (abundance and fecundity of adults) and the length of PLD. The networks we have created are geographically explicit models of marine connectivity that define dispersal corridors, barriers, and the emergent structure of marine populations. These models provide hypotheses for empirical testing.
Human activity in the deep sea is extending ever deeper, with recent research showing that this environment is more sensitive to human and natural impacts than previously thought. Some deep-water ...fish stocks have collapsed and fishing methods such as bottom trawling have raised international concern over the habitat damage they cause. It is likely that in its current form, deep-sea fishing is unsustainable. Diminishing reserves of hydrocarbons in shallow water are pushing exploration and production into deeper waters, which may cause damage to little known deep-sea habitats. The deep sea is also proposed as an environment where anthropogenic carbon dioxide could be stored to minimise the effect of its release into the atmosphere. At the same time, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may be altering the chemical equilibrium of the global ocean by lowering pH. Many countries are now beginning to designate some deep-sea habitats as marine protected areas in measures to reduce the damage caused by fishing and other anthropogenic activities. This review examines these current and emerging issues in deep-sea conservation and discusses conservation status and the designation of protected areas. The enforcement of protected areas using satellite tracking of vessels is discussed and applied to an internationally agreed deep-water conservation area, which aims to protect cold-water coral habitats on the Darwin Mounds in the north east Atlantic Ocean.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a visionary and multi-sectoral agenda for human development. With less than a decade left to reach these targets, it is important to identify those at ...greatest risk of not meeting these ambitious targets. Adolescent mothers and their children are a highly vulnerable group. We mapped 35 SGD-related targets among 1,046 adolescent mothers and their oldest child (n = 1046). Questionnaires using validated scales were completed by 10- to 24-year-old adolescent girls and young women who had their first child before age 20 in an HIV-endemic district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Maternal outcomes included 26 SDG-aligned indicators, while child-related outcomes included 9 indicators. Data was collected by trained researchers, following informed voluntary consent by the adolescent mothers and their caregivers. Frequencies and chi-square tests were conducted to compare progress along SDG-aligned indicators among adolescent mothers by HIV status. Overall, adolescent mothers reported low attainment of SDG-aligned indicators. While four in five adolescent mothers lived in poor households, nearly 93% accessed at least one social cash transfer and 80% accessed a child support grant for their children. Food security rates among adolescent mothers (71%) were lower than among their children (91%). Only two-thirds of adolescent mothers returned to school after childbirth, and only one-fifth were either studying or employed. Over half of adolescent mothers had experienced at least one type of violence (domestic, sexual or community). HIV-positive status was associated with higher rates of hunger and substance use, poorer school attendance, and higher rates of exposure to violence. Understanding progress and gaps in meeting the SDGs among highly vulnerable groups is critical, particularly for adolescent mothers and their children. These complex vulnerabilities suggest that programming for adolescent mothers must address their unique needs.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background. Beta-lactam antibiotics are a commonly used treatment for severe sepsis, with intermittent bolus dosing standard therapy, despite a strong theoretical rationale for continuous ...administration. The aim of this trial was to determine the clinical and pharmacokinetic differences between continuous and intermittent dosing in patients with severe sepsis. Methods. This was a prospective, double-blind, randomized controlled trial of continuous infusion versus intermittent bolus dosing of piperacillin-tazobactam, meropenem, and ticarcillin-clavulanate conducted in 5 intensive care units across Australia and Hong Kong. The primary pharmacokinetic outcome on treatment analysis was plasma antibiotic concentration above the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) on days 3 and 4. The assessed clinical outcomes were clinical response 7–14 days after study drug cessation, ICU-free days at day 28 and hospital survival. Results. Sixty patients were enrolled with 30 patients each allocated to the intervention and control groups. Plasma antibiotic concentrations exceeded the MIC in 82% of patients (18 of 22) in the continuous arm versus 29% (6 of 21) in the intermittent arm (P = .001). Clinical cure was higher in the continuous group (70% vs 43%; P = .037), but ICU-free days (19.5 vs 17 days; P = .14) did not significantly differ between groups. Survival to hospital discharge was 90% in the continuous group versus 80% in the intermittent group (P = .47). Conclusions. Continuous administration of beta-lactam antibiotics achieved higher plasma antibiotic concentrations than intermittent administration with improvement in clinical cure. This study provides a strong rationale for further multicenter trials with sufficient power to identify differences in patient-centered endpoints.
The purpose of many wildlife population studies is to estimate density, movement, or demographic parameters. Linking these parameters to covariates, such as habitat features, provides additional ...ecological insight and can be used to make predictions for management purposes. Line‐transect surveys, combined with distance sampling methods, are often used to estimate density at discrete points in time, whereas capture–recapture methods are used to estimate movement and other demographic parameters. Recently, open population spatial capture–recapture models have been developed, which simultaneously estimate density and demographic parameters, but have been made available only for data collected from a fixed array of detectors and have not incorporated the effects of habitat covariates. We developed a spatial capture–recapture model that can be applied to line‐transect survey data by modeling detection probability in a manner analogous to distance sampling. We extend this model to a) estimate demographic parameters using an open population framework and b) model variation in density and space use as a function of habitat covariates. The model is illustrated using simulated data and aerial line‐transect survey data for North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States, which also demonstrates the ability to integrate data from multiple survey platforms and accommodate differences between strata or demographic groups. When individuals detected from line‐transect surveys can be uniquely identified, our model can be used to simultaneously make inference on factors that influence spatial and temporal variation in density, movement, and population dynamics.
We developed an open spatial capture–recapture model that can be applied to line‐transect survey data. The model estimates demographic parameters while simultaneously providing inference on factors that influence spatial and temporal variation in density and space use. We illustrate its use with aerial survey data for North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in the southeastern United States.
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