South Asia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impact of climate change. Empirical studies carried out in recent years using the partial equilibrium approach ...suggest that climate change-induced yield losses in agriculture are becoming a serious concern. In this study, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to examine the impact of changes in crop productivity due to climate change on food prices and food security in South Asia, focusing on five large countries in the region, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Our results suggest that there is likely to be a significant negative impact on food production and prices in all South Asian countries due to climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes. The results further suggest that countries in this region are likely to face problems of food security given that nearly half of the world’s poor reside in this region and agriculture plays an important role in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment generation in the region. The results support the need for policy analysts and policy makers in the region to develop climate change adaptation measures that address the likely negative consequences of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses.
This paper presents new evidence of the causal effect of air pollution on Australian health outcomes, using the Black Saturday bushfires (BSB) in 2009 as a natural experiment. This event was one of ...the largest bushfires in Australian history and emitted approximately four million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. We use data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamic Australia (HILDA) panel and compare the health status of individuals who were living in affected and unaffected regions before and after the event. Using a triple differences procedure, we further examine whether a difference in vulnerability to bushfire smoke exists comparing people living in urban or regional areas. We find that ambient air pollution had significant negative effects on health and that the magnitudes were actually larger for individuals residing in urban areas.
•Examine the causal effect of air pollution on health from Australian bushfires.•Individuals exposed to pollutants had significantly poorer health outcomes.•Robust deficits appear across various objective and subjective health indicators.•People in major cities are more affected, likely from pre-existing pollutant exposure.•Results also vary by markers of socioeconomic status.
Agriculture is a sector vulnerable to climate change. The potential decline of crop yields from this vulnerability has important policy implications for food security in South Asia. In this study an ...integrated assessment modelling framework is proposed to link a global economic model with global climate models via an econometric model of crop productivity. It is then used to examine the impact of climate change on food security in individual South Asian countries by exploring the interaction between climate-induced productivity change and changes in food production and food prices. The results of our simulations suggest that unfavourable climate change can reduce food production significantly from the historical trend and create upward pressure on food prices. This, in turn, will have serious adverse impacts on food security in the South Asian region.
•We present an integrated model of food security in South Asia under climate change.•We link a CGE model with climate models via an econometric model of crop yields.•We explore interactions among climate change, food production and food prices.•Climate change is expected to have serious impacts on food security in South Asia.
We study the effects of inherited socioeconomic characteristics on markers of unhealthy bodyweight. Taking Australian microdata from 2007 to 2013, we show that approximately 4% of the variation in ...outcomes is determined by factors beyond an individual's control, such as their race, gender, and social class. Paternal socioeconomic status is the primary explanatory factor, with those born to more affluent fathers slightly less likely to be overweight in adulthood. Decompositions reveal that only 20%–25% of this effect is attributable to advantaged families exhibiting better health behaviors, which implies that unobserved factors also play an important role. Since diseases associated with unhealthy weight place a major strain on public healthcare systems, our results have implications for the provision of treatment when resources are constrained.
The impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have frequently ...been used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, these studies do not focus on country-specific issues related to the link between climate change and agriculture. This paper aims to address this gap by investigating the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it has one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies in South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household CGE model to trace the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in Nepal. The results suggest that climate change has a significant negative impact on the overall Nepalese economy due to the induced loss of agricultural productivity. The results further reveal that rural households in Nepal, whose livelihoods primarily depend on subsistence farming, will face additional climate change–induced stresses due to already overstrained poverty and a weak social welfare system. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal.
•This paper assesses the economic impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture.•A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepalese economy is framed.•Climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity has a negative impact.•Rural households in Nepal are more vulnerable due to already overstrained poverty.•Mainstreaming the locally-led adaptation strategies is highly recommended.
Foreign aid and migrant remittances are major sources of external finance for developing countries, but there is little research into whether they are interlinked. In the existing literature, only a ...few studies have examined the nexus between these two financial flows and their conclusions have been mixed. This study, using recent data (1980–2016) from 50 aid-recipient countries, empirically analyses the relationship between foreign aid and remittances. Applying dynamic panel estimation techniques, we find a negative relationship between foreign aid and remittances. Further investigation of the transmission channels reveals that foreign aid, by broadening human capital through its robust effects on education, increases remittance flows. The human capital led growth channel is found to be effective in all countries (and sub-groups), while the migration channel of aid significantly favours remittances only in the LDCs. Though aid substitutes remittances generally, it also increases remittances indirectly through different transmission channels.
•Aid and remittances, the major sources of external finance, are inter-linked.•In general, foreign aid has a negative effect on remittances.•Foreign aid through the human capital channel, increases remittance flows.•The human-capital led growth channel of aid improves remittances in all countries.•The migration channel of aid helps to increase remittances only in the LDCs.
In many developing countries, in addition to household income, there are a number of other socio-economic determinants of poverty. One such hidden socio-economic factor is alcohol consumption and ...some studies argue that there is a link between alcohol consumption and poverty. The main aim of this study is to measure the effects of alcohol consumption on the level of poverty in a systematic way. Using Sri Lanka as a case study, this article demonstrates that the consumption of various types of alcoholic beverages, particularly, the illegal beverages, has a significant positive association with the level of poverty. The findings of this study suggest that, in Sri Lanka, the consumption of illegal alcoholic beverages increases the likelihood of being in a poor household by 2-3%. The results of this study also find that households who are characterized as nonpoor but are just above the poverty line behave more like the poor rather than the nonpoor in terms of alcohol consumption. Some of the conclusions from this Sri Lankan case study can be applied to other developing countries.
Despite of significant growth in all walks of life, the issue of infant mortality still a major concern in most of the developing economies. The World Development Indicators have reported that 4.45 ...million infants died across the globe in 2015, meaning that 32 deaths per every 1,000 live births. A number of times, the World Health Organization (WHO) have stressed the significance of sanitation, safe drinking water and healthcare facilities in reducing infant mortality rate, though most developing countries still lacks in these services. Given this background, the present study aims to examine the role of sanitation, water facilities and health expenditure on infant mortality rate across a panel of 84 developing economies using annual data from 1995 to 2013. The study also account for per capita income and depth of food deficiency as the control factors in the model. The findings of this study establish a significant long‐run equilibrium association among the variables. The long‐run elasticities on infant mortality suggest that improved water and sanitation facilities, health expenditure and per capita income substantially reduce infant mortality rate, while food deficiency increases. Given these findings, we suggest that increasing access to improved water, sanitation and healthcare facilities will significantly reduce child mortality in developing economies around the world.
The ready‐made garment industry plays an important role in Sri Lanka both in terms of export earnings and poverty alleviation through employment generation. Following the removal of GSP Plus by EU in ...2010 on the basis of alleged human right violations by the Sri Lankan government during the last stage of the civil war in 2009 and after, it currently faces serious challenges in exporting to the EU, its major market. Given the important role of the ready‐made garment industry in poverty alleviation through employment generation, the impact of removal of GSP plus on the poor is examined in this paper. The empirical results of this study demonstrate that poverty and income inequality are expected to be exacerbated in Sri Lanka as a result of the removal of GSP Plus by the EU using non‐economic reasons such as human rights violation. The results are also relevant for the renewed emphasis on trade preferences as a potential instrument for the Millennium Development Goals and the debate on how trade preferences are to be designed to maximise their effectiveness in stimulating a manufacturing supply response.
This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri ...Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.
•Trade liberalisation would increase economic growth and reduce poverty.•The labour market channel carries the biggest impact on household income.•Occupational choices explain a vital part of the distributional aspect of poverty.•Extent of poverty reduction depends on individual or household characteristics.•Free trade may favour higher wage earners, hence increase income inequality.
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