The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was ...set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.
In
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alaysia, the main land change process is the establishment of oil palm plantations on logged‐over forests and areas used for shifting cultivation, which is the traditional farming system. While ...standing carbon stocks of old‐growth forest have been the focus of many studies, this is less the case for
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alaysian fallow systems and oil palm plantations. Here, we collate and analyse
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alaysian datasets on total carbon stocks for both above‐ and below‐ground biomass. We review the current knowledge on standing carbon stocks of 1) different forest ecosystems, 2) areas subject to shifting cultivation (fallow forests) and 3) oil palm plantations. The forest ecosystems are classified by successional stage and edaphic conditions and represent samples along a forest succession continuum spanning pioneer species in shifting cultivation fallows to climax vegetation in old‐growth forests. Total carbon stocks in tropical forests range from 4 to 384
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g
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/ha, significantly wider than the range of total carbon stocks of oil palm plantations, 2 to 60
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g
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/ha. Conversion of old‐growth forest areas to oil palm plantations leads to substantial reduction in carbon storage, while conversion of forest fallows to oil palm plantations may sustain or even increase the standing carbon stock.
•We examined the evolution of European land management over the past 200 years.•The study was based on 28 country-level narratives on drivers of land use-change.•7 land-management regimes were ...identified along with their drivers.•Land reforms and technological innovations were major drivers of regime change.•Land-system changes should be conceived as path-dependent processes.
Land use is a cornerstone of human civilization, but also intrinsically linked to many global sustainability challenges—from climate change to food security to the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Understanding the underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers of land-use change, and how they play out in different environmental, socio-economic and cultural contexts, is therefore important for identifying effective policies to successfully address these challenges. In this regard, much can be learned from studying long-term land-use change. We examined the evolution of European land management over the past 200 years with the aim of identifying (1) key episodes of changes in land management, and (2) their underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers. To do so, we generated narratives elaborating on the drivers of land use-change at the country level for 28 countries in Europe. We qualitatively grouped drivers into land-management regimes, and compared changes in management regimes across Europe. Our results allowed discerning seven land-management regimes, and highlighted marked heterogeneity regarding the types of management regimes occurring in a particular country, the timing and prevalence of regimes, and the conditions that result in observed bifurcations. However, we also found strong similarities across countries in the timing of certain land-management regime shifts, often in relation to institutional reforms (e.g., changes in EU agrarian policies or the emergence and collapse of the Soviet land management paradigm) or to technological innovations (e.g., drainage pipes, tillage and harvesting machinery, motorization, and synthetic fertilizers). Land reforms frequently triggered changes in land management, and the location and timing of reforms had substantial impacts on land-use outcomes. Finally, forest protection policies and voluntary cooperatives were important drivers of land-management changes. Overall, our results demonstrate that land-system changes should not be conceived as unidirectional developments following predefined trajectories, but rather as path-dependent processes that may be affected by various drivers, including sudden events.
During the past century, the western hemisphere has seen a general trend of agricultural expansion on the behalf of semi-natural habitat types, such as heathlands and meadows. This has been ...documented in numerous studies of land use change. This trend is reflected in today's European rural landscapes, which are dominated by intensive agriculture. However, many of these studies are based on cartographical sources, such as topographical and thematic maps, and thus prone to uncertainties regarding classification systems over time, variations in definitions of land use categories and lacking documentations of land use definitions. For this study, we conducted two change detection studies, covering the same four study areas in Denmark. The first study was based on topographic maps, and indicates a strong decline in the amount of semi-natural grassland (SNG). This was contrasted by the second study, which was based on an interpretation of aerial photos, and which indicated a much less pronounced reduction of SNGs. Year to year comparisons of these two analyses also revealed large discrepancies in the coverage of SNGs. Our results indicate that change detection studies must account for uncertainties in classifications and results should be interpreted with caution.
Whilst a range of studies address the aquaculture livelihoods in southern Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, the role of aquaculture in northern Vietnam remains less described. We, therefore, conducted ...interviews with 199 households in the two northern provinces Quang Ninh and Nghe An in 2014 to analyse the dependence on aquaculture in these two provinces and amongst farmers specializing in shrimp and freshwater fish production, respectively. Further, we tested the ability of different socio-economic variables to explain the observed reliance on aquaculture using an ANCOVA model. The study identifies a substantial reliance on aquaculture of farmers in the study area with at least half of their income generated by aquaculture. Our analyses highlight that the educational background of farmers explain their engagement in aquaculture better than how long they have worked as aquaculture farmers. Freshwater fish farmers were shown to rely less on aquaculture as it is only generating a supplementary income. In contrast, the shrimp farmers are not only those having the highest share of income from aquaculture but also earning their main living from aquaculture. The fact that both shrimp and fish farmers have diverse sources of income shows the unstable or risky nature of aquaculture livelihoods in the study area. Our findings suggest that policies promoting aquaculture should focus on training of farmers whilst acknowledging that a diverse income portfolio increases livelihood resilience to external shocks such as extreme weather events, diseases and fluctuating market prices.
Campylobacter infections are the main cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in Denmark. While primarily foodborne, Campylobacter infections are also to some degree acquired through other sources which ...may include contact with animals or the environment, locally contaminated drinking water and more. We analyzed Campylobacter cases for clustering in space and time for the large Danish island of Funen in the period 1995-2003, under the assumption that infections caused by 'environmental' factors may show persistent clustering while foodborne infections will occur randomly in space. Input data were geo-coded datasets of the addresses of laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter cases and of the background population of Funen County. The dataset had a spatial extent of 4.900 km2. Data were aggregated into units of analysis (so-called features) of 5 km by 5 km times 1 year, and the Campylobacter incidence calculated. We used a modified form of local Moran's I to test if features with similar incidence rates occurred next to each other in space and time, and compared the observed clusters with simulated clusters. Because clusters may be caused by a high tendency among local GPs to submit stool samples, we also analyzed a dataset of all submitted stool samples for comparison. The results showed a significant persisting clustering of Campylobacter incidence rates in the Western part of Funen. Results were visualized using the Netlogo software. The underlying causes of the observed clustering are not known and will require further examination, but may be partially explained by an increased rate of stool samples submissions by physicians in the area. We hope, by this approach, to have developed a tool which will allow for analyses of geographical clusters which may in turn form a basis for further epidemiological examinations to cast light on the sources of infection.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Management of natural resources requires consideration from many angles. Traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a given project will not include impacts on natural resources, so an integration of ...CBA and environmental impact assessment (EIA) is suggested. This approach is used to evaluate damming of the Senegal River by constructing the relationships between water management and changes in agro- and pisci-ecological productivity from the perspective of economic value. Furthermore, changes in aquifer recharge and wetland ecology are described and valued. The model's execution facilitates scenario analysis for water management, while its construction serves to highlight uncertainties related to the management of the dam. This approach underpins the caution that must be taken when determining the discount rate for natural resources.
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