Lack of coordination between screening studies for common mental disorders in primary care and community epidemiological samples impedes progress in clinical epidemiology. Short screening scales ...based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), the diagnostic interview used in community epidemiological surveys throughout the world, were developed to address this problem.
Expert reviews and cognitive interviews generated CIDI screening scale (CIDI-SC) item pools for 30-day DSM-IV-TR major depressive episode (MDE), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD) and bipolar disorder (BPD). These items were administered to 3058 unselected patients in 29 US primary care offices. Blinded SCID clinical reinterviews were administered to 206 of these patients, oversampling screened positives.
Stepwise regression selected optimal screening items to predict clinical diagnoses. Excellent concordance area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was found between continuous CIDI-SC and DSM-IV/SCID diagnoses of 30-day MDE (0.93), GAD (0.88), PD (0.90) and BPD (0.97), with only 9-38 questions needed to administer all scales. CIDI-SC versus SCID prevalence differences are insignificant at the optimal CIDI-SC diagnostic thresholds (χ2 1 = 0.0-2.9, p = 0.09-0.94). Individual-level diagnostic concordance at these thresholds is substantial (AUC 0.81-0.86, sensitivity 68.0-80.2%, specificity 90.1-98.8%). Likelihood ratio positive (LR+) exceeds 10 and LR- is 0.1 or less at informative thresholds for all diagnoses.
CIDI-SC operating characteristics are equivalent (MDE, GAD) or superior (PD, BPD) to those of the best alternative screening scales. CIDI-SC results can be compared directly to general population CIDI survey results or used to target and streamline second-stage CIDIs.
In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize the impact of the ...epidemic. In the early stages of such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit the ability of models to provide accurate predictions, and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting for data to alleviate this state of uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is the selection of the optimal control intervention in the face of uncertainty, rather than accuracy of model predictions, that is the measure of success that counts. We simulate the process of real-time decision-making by fitting an epidemic model to observed, spatially-explicit, infection data at weekly intervals throughout two historical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, UK in 2001 and Miyazaki, Japan in 2010, and compare forward simulations of the impact of switching to an alternative control intervention at the time point in question. These are compared to policy recommendations generated in hindsight using data from the entire outbreak, thereby comparing the best we could have done at the time with the best we could have done in retrospect. Our results show that the control policy that would have been chosen using all the data is also identified from an early stage in an outbreak using only the available data, despite high variability in projections of epidemic size. Critically, we find that it is an improved understanding of the locations of infected farms, rather than improved estimates of transmission parameters, that drives improved prediction of the relative performance of control interventions. However, the ability to estimate undetected infectious premises is a function of uncertainty in the transmission parameters. Here, we demonstrate the need for both real-time model fitting and generating projections to evaluate alternative control interventions throughout an outbreak. Our results highlight the use of using models at outbreak onset to inform policy and the importance of state-dependent interventions that adapt in response to additional information throughout an outbreak.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
A search for neutrinoless double-β decay (0νββ) in Xe136 is performed with the full EXO-200 dataset using a deep neural network to discriminate between 0νββ and background events. Relative to ...previous analyses, the signal detection efficiency has been raised from 80.8% to 96.4±3.0%, and the energy resolution of the detector at the Q value of Xe136 0νββ has been improved from σ/E=1.23% to 1.15±0.02% with the upgraded detector. Accounting for the new data, the median 90% confidence level 0νββ half-life sensitivity for this analysis is 5.0×1025 yr with a total Xe136 exposure of 234.1 kg yr. No statistically significant evidence for 0νββ is observed, leading to a lower limit on the 0νββ half-life of 3.5×1025 yr at the 90% confidence level.
Results from a search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0νββ) of ^{136}Xe are presented using the first year of data taken with the upgraded EXO-200 detector. Relative to previous searches by ...EXO-200, the energy resolution of the detector has been improved to σ/E=1.23%, the electric field in the drift region has been raised by 50%, and a system to suppress radon in the volume between the cryostat and lead shielding has been implemented. In addition, analysis techniques that improve topological discrimination between 0νββ and background events have been developed. Incorporating these hardware and analysis improvements, the median 90% confidence level 0νββ half-life sensitivity after combining with the full data set acquired before the upgrade has increased twofold to 3.7×10^{25} yr. No statistically significant evidence for 0νββ is observed, leading to a lower limit on the 0νββ half-life of 1.8×10^{25} yr at the 90% confidence level.
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely ...administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this paper, we assess the extent to which mass testing and isolation strategies can reduce reliance on socially costly non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns. We develop a multi-compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission incorporating both preventative non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and testing and isolation to evaluate their combined effect on public health outcomes. Our model is designed to be a policy-guiding tool that captures important realities of the testing system, including constraints on test administration and non-random testing allocation. We show how strategic changes in the characteristics of the testing system, including test administration, test delays, and test sensitivity, can reduce reliance on preventative NPIs without compromising public health outcomes in the future. The lowest NPI levels are possible only when many tests are administered and test delays are short, given limited immunity in the population. Reducing reliance on NPIs is highly dependent on the ability of a testing program to identify and isolate unreported, asymptomatic infections. Changes in NPIs, including the intensity of lockdowns and stay at home orders, should be coordinated with increases in testing to ensure epidemic control; otherwise small additional lifting of these NPIs can lead to dramatic increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Importantly, our results can be used to guide ramp-up of testing capacity in outbreak settings, allow for the flexible design of combined interventions based on social context, and inform future cost-benefit analyses to identify efficient pandemic management strategies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Baggett et al. (2015) identified a set of three universal environmental variables to be monitored for evaluating all oyster habitat restoration projects: salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. ...Perhaps evidencing a bias toward subtidal reefs, this set of parameters omits another first‐order environmental factor, tidal emersion. Intertidal oyster reefs can be the dominant reef habitat in estuaries, with clear zonation in oyster performance across the intertidal exposure gradient. Therefore, we propose to include tidal emersion as a fourth universal environmental parameter when designing and evaluating oyster restoration projects to better encompass the whole environmental spectrum along which reefs occur.
NOD2 is an intracellular sensor that contributes to immune defense and inflammation. Here we investigated whether NOD2 mediates its effects through control of microRNAs (miRNAs). miR-29 expression ...was upregulated in human dendritic cells (DCs) in response to NOD2 signals, and miR-29 regulated the expression of multiple immune mediators. In particular, miR-29 downregulated interleukin-23 (IL-23) by targeting IL-12p40 directly and IL-23p19 indirectly, likely via reduction of ATF2. DSS-induced colitis was worse in miR-29-deficient mice and was associated with elevated IL-23 and T helper 17 signature cytokines in the intestinal mucosa. Crohn’s disease (CD) patient DCs expressing NOD2 polymorphisms failed to induce miR-29 upon pattern recognition receptor stimulation and showed enhanced release of IL-12p40 on exposure to adherent invasive E. coli. Therefore, we suggest that loss of miR-29-mediated immunoregulation in CD DCs might contribute to elevated IL-23 in this disease.
•NOD2 directs miR-29 expression in DCs to limit IL-12p40 and IL-23p19•A target screen for miR-29-regulated genes reveals a number of innate immune targets•miR-29 knockout mice exhibit worsened colitis than controls•Crohn’s DCs fail to induce miR-29 and express increased IL-12p40
Diets rich in insoluble-fibre are linked to a reduced risk of both diabetes and cardiovascular disease; however, the mechanism of action remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess whether ...acute changes in the insoluble-fibre (resistant starch) content of the diet would have effects on postprandial carbohydrate and lipid handling.
Ten healthy subjects consumed two identical, low-residue diets on separate occasions for 24 h (33% fat; <2 g dietary fibre). Of the diets one was supplemented with 60 g resistant starch (Novelose 260). On the following morning a fibre-free meal tolerance test (MTT) was carried out (59 g carbohydrate; 21 g fat; 2.1 kJ) and postprandial insulin sensitivity (SI(ORAL)) assessed using a minimal model approach.
Prior resistant starch consumption led to lower postprandial plasma glucose (p=0.037) and insulin (p=0.038) with a higher insulin sensitivity(44+/-7.5 vs 26+/-3.5 x 10(-4) dl kg(-1) min(-1) per micro Uml(-1); p=0.028) and C-peptide-to-insulin molar ratio (18.7+/-6.5 vs 9.7+/-0.69; p=0.017). There was no effect of resistant starch consumption on plasma triacylglycerol although non-esterified fatty acid and 3-hydroxybutyrate levels were suppressed 5 h after the meal tolerance test.
Prior acute consumption of a high-dose of resistant starch enhanced carbohydrate handling in the postprandial period the following day potentially due to the increased rate of colonic fermentation.
PDF
