This paper provides a new theory of international capital flows. In a framework that integrates factor-proportions-based trade and financial capital flows, a novel force emerges: capital tends to ...flow toward countries that become more specialized in capital-intensive industries. This "composition" effect competes with the standard force that channels capital toward the location where it is scarcer. If the composition effect dominates, capital flows away from the country hit by a positive labor force/productivity shock—a flow "reversal." Extended to a quantitative framework, the model generates sizable current account imbalances between developing and developed countries broadly consistent with the data.
We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints—more severe in fast-growing countries—can explain three prominent global ...trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the US and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about a third of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.
As a catalyst for urban landscape transformation, the reuse of heritage sites plays a pivotal role in shaping contemporary urban spaces and influencing socio-economic development. However, this ...phenomenon is not without controversy, particularly regarding the quality of preservation and the potential risks associated with over-commodification. Consequently, there has been an increasing research focus on reconciling these conflicting aspects. This study employs a multi-value interpretation framework to delve into the reuse of heritage sites in the urban area of Xi’an within the broader context of China’s urbanization. Utilizing a comparative case study method, this research specifically examines the burgeoning phenomenon of heritage parks. This exploration sheds light on how the reuse of heritage intertwines with urbanization processes, by taking into account environmental, economic, social, and cultural values. The findings suggest that a multi-value interpretation framework is crucial to address the limitations of the current heritagization. Heritage sites in Xi’an have been integrated into the urban transformation process through heritage conservation and the production of new heritage spaces. However, the evolving multi-value evaluation of these heritage sites continues to influence the city’s interpretation of its significant and fading past in planning. This study highlights the dynamic nature of heritage sites in the urban context and underscores the need for nuanced approaches to balance heritage preservation with the evolving demands of contemporary urban development.
We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the ...1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textbook open economy models. The past decades have seen a shift, whereby increases in US interest rates depreciate the US dollar but stimulate the rest of the world economy. Results are robust to several identification methods. We sketch a simple theory of exchange rate determination in face of interest-elastic risk aversion that rationalizes these findings.
Re–Os geochronometer has been used in the dating of generation-accumulation, thermal cracking, and thermochemical sulfate reduction of crude oil and the oil-source correlation of petroleum systems in ...recent years. Re and Os concentrations are higher in the asphaltene fraction of crude oil and the earlier precipitated fractions of asphaltene. The correlations of the Re–Os isotopic systematics between asphaltene and maltene and among the fractions of asphaltenes are complex. It is shown by experiments that Re and Os can transfer from water to oil rapidly in a significant amount. However, Re–Os dating with multiple crude oil samples is suffering from great uncertainties while single oil dating methodology does not always work. A bright future for the application of Re–Os geochronometer on the dating of crude oil generation and accumulation requests further research on the homogenization mechanism of 187Os/188Os, the closed system of Re–Os systematics, and how Re and Os reside in crude oil.
This paper formalizes a classic idea that in second-best environments trade can induce welfare losses: incremental income losses from distortions can outweigh trade gains. In a Melitz model with ...distortionary taxes, we derive sufficient statistics for welfare gains/losses and show departures from the efficient case (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012) can be captured by the gap between an input and output share and domestic extensive margin elasticities. The loss reflects an endogenous selection of more subsidized firms into exporting. Using Chinese manufacturing data in 2005 and model-inferred firm-level distortions, we demonstrate that a sizable negative fiscal externality can potentially offset conventional gains. (JEL D22, F14, H25, L60, O19, P31, P33)
This paper analyzes a useful accounting framework that breaks down the current account to two components: a composition effect and a growth effect. We show that past empirical evidence, which ...strongly supports the growth effect as the main driver of current account dynamics, is misconceived. The remarkable empirical success of the growth effect is driven by the dominance of the cross-sectional variation, which, under conditions met by the data, is generated by an accounting approximation. In contrast to previous findings that the portfolio share of net foreign assets to total assets is constant in a country, both our theoretical and empirical results support a highly persistent process or a unit-root process, with some countries displaying a trend. Finally, we reestablish the composition effect as the quantitatively dominant driving force of current account dynamics in the past data.
Inhibin subunit βA (INHBA) is a protein-coding gene belonging to the transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) superfamily, which is associated with the development of a variety of cancers. However, the ...role of INHBA in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSC) remains unclear. The expression profile and prognostic significance of INHBA in HNSC were assessed using a variety of informatics methods. The level of INHBA expression was significantly higher in patients with HNSC, and it was correlated with sex, tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) stage, histological grade, and human papillomavirus (HPV) status. Kaplan–Meier (K–M) analysis indicated that poor overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were significantly associated with INHBA upregulation in HNSC. INHBA overexpression was validated as an independent poor prognostic factor by multivariate Cox regression, and including INHBA expression level in the prognostic model could increase prediction accuracy. In addition, copy number alterations (CNAs) of INHBA and miR-217-5p downregulation are potential mechanisms for elevated INHBA expression in HNSC. In conclusion, INHBA may represent a promising predictive biomarker and candidate target for anti-TGFβ therapy in HNSC.
The One-Child Policy and Household Saving Choukhmane, Taha; Coeurdacier, Nicolas; Jin, Keyu
Journal of the European Economic Association,
06/2023, Letnik:
21, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract
We investigate whether the “one-child policy” has contributed to the rise in China’s household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational ...transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children—inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data.
This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital- and labor-intensive goods over the business cycle and also identifies a mechanism that generates international investment co-movement ...through shifting compositional changes of production and trade across sectors. Our model’s quantitative predictions not only match aggregate and sectoral statistics but also generate empirically plausible sectoral composition effects. Finally, we show that essential segments of the transmission process receive empirical support.
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