Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The
integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic ...emissions for
the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents
a different future socio-economic projection and political environment.
Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios
– using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We
extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP
concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range
from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5)
emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration
extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil
fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the
fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the
lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau
at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario
projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations
beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total
radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse
gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by
the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation,
we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo
Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs
(SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced
and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two
pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the
effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally
resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the
March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern
latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged
of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound
(∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the
comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas
concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies'
projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a
“hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in
this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term
climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of
futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to –
ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to
approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.
Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential ...strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.
Plain Language Summary
This commentary explores research gaps in the field of land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale and proposes possible ways forward for addressing these gaps. Specifically the impacts of forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing on flood generation at the catchment scale are explored. Potential strategies in addressing research gaps in these fields are complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.
Key Points
Land use change impacts on floods are poorly understood at the catchment scale
Numerous synergies are identified in exploring the effects of changed agricultural practices, artif. drainage, terracing, and forest cover
A cross‐disciplinary systems approach aided by long‐term field studies and a focus on flow connectivity are needed to make major advances
The evolution of ocean temperature measurement systems is presented with a focus on the development and accuracy of two critical devices in use today (expendable bathythermographs and ...conductivity‐temperature‐depth instruments used on Argo floats). A detailed discussion of the accuracy of these devices and a projection of the future of ocean temperature measurements are provided. The accuracy of ocean temperature measurements is discussed in detail in the context of ocean heat content, Earth's energy imbalance, and thermosteric sea level rise. Up‐to‐date estimates are provided for these three important quantities. The total energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere is best assessed by taking an inventory of changes in energy storage. The main storage is in the ocean, the latest values of which are presented. Furthermore, despite differences in measurement methods and analysis techniques, multiple studies show that there has been a multidecadal increase in the heat content of both the upper and deep ocean regions, which reflects the impact of anthropogenic warming. With respect to sea level rise, mutually reinforcing information from tide gauges and radar altimetry shows that presently, sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm yr−1 with contributions from both thermal expansion and mass accumulation from ice melt. The latest data for thermal expansion sea level rise are included here and analyzed.
Key Points
Oceanographic techniques and analysis have improved over many decades
These improvements allow more accurate Earth‐energy balance estimates
Understanding of ocean heat content and sea‐level rise has also increased
We present the first wide area (19 deg2), deep (≈120–150 μJy beam−1), high-resolution (5.6 × 7.4 arcsec) LOFAR High Band Antenna image of the Boötes field made at 130–169 MHz. This image is at least ...an order of magnitude deeper and 3–5 times higher in angular resolution than previously achieved for this field at low frequencies. The observations and data reduction, which includes full direction-dependent calibration, are described here. We present a radio source catalogue containing 6 276 sources detected over an area of 19 deg2, with a peak flux density threshold of 5σ. As the first thorough test of the facet calibration strategy, introduced by van Weeren et al., we investigate the flux and positional accuracy of the catalogue. We present differential source counts that reach an order of magnitude deeper in flux density than previously achieved at these low frequencies, and show flattening at 150-MHz flux densities below 10 mJy associated with the rise of the low flux density star-forming galaxies and radio-quiet AGN.
In men with prostate cancer on PSA screening, radical treatments led to half the incidence of metastasis and local progression as active monitoring without affecting disease-specific or overall ...survival.
Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction were assigned to receive sacubitril–valsartan or valsartan. At a median of 35 months, there was no significant between-group difference in ...the composite outcome of total hospitalizations for heart failure or death from cardiovascular causes.
The LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey Shimwell, T. W.; Röttgering, H. J. A.; Best, P. N. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
02/2017, Letnik:
598
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) is a deep 120–168 MHz imaging survey that will eventually cover the entire northern sky. Each of the 3170 pointings will be observed for 8 h, which, at most ...declinations, is sufficient to produce ∼5 resolution images with a sensitivity of ∼100 µJy/beam and accomplish the main scientific aims of the survey, which are to explore the formation and evolution of massive black holes, galaxies, clusters of galaxies and large-scale structure. Owing to the compact core and long baselines of LOFAR, the images provide excellent sensitivity to both highly extended and compact emission. For legacy value, the data are archived at high spectral and time resolution to facilitate subarcsecond imaging and spectral line studies. In this paper we provide an overview of the LoTSS. We outline the survey strategy, the observational status, the current calibration techniques, a preliminary data release, and the anticipated scientific impact. The preliminary images that we have released were created using a fully automated but direction-independent calibration strategy and are significantly more sensitive than those produced by any existing large-area low-frequency survey. In excess of 44 000 sources are detected in the images that have a resolution of 25 , typical noise levels of less than 0.5 mJy/beam, and cover an area of over 350 square degrees in the region of the HETDEX Spring Field (right ascension 10h45m00s to 15h30m00s and declination 45 • 00 00 to 57 • 00 00).
Coding variants in the apolipoprotein L1 gene (APOL1) are strongly associated with nephropathy in African Americans (AAs). The effect of transplanting kidneys from AA donors with two APOL1 ...nephropathy risk variants is unknown. APOL1 risk variants were genotyped in 106 AA deceased organ donors and graft survival assessed in 136 resultant kidney transplants. Cox‐proportional hazard models tested for association between time to graft failure and donor APOL1 genotypes. The mean follow‐up was 26.4 ± 21.8 months. Twenty‐two of 136 transplanted kidneys (16%) were from donors with two APOL1 nephropathy risk variants. Twenty‐five grafts failed; eight (32%) had two APOL1 risk variants. A multivariate model accounting for donor APOL1 genotype, overall African ancestry, expanded criteria donation, recipient age and gender, HLA mismatch, CIT and PRA revealed that graft survival was significantly shorter in donor kidneys with two APOL1 risk variants (hazard ratio HR 3.84; p = 0.008) and higher HLA mismatch (HR 1.52; p = 0.03), but not for overall African ancestry excluding APOL1. Kidneys from AA deceased donors harboring two APOL1 risk variants failed more rapidly after renal transplantation than those with zero or one risk variants. If replicated, APOL1 genotyping could improve the donor selection process and maximize long‐term renal allograft survival.
Renal allograft survival was shorter in patients receiving deceased donor kidneys from African Americans with two, compared to zero or one, APOL1 nephropathy risk variants.
The C-Band All-Sky Survey (C-BASS) is an all-sky full-polarization survey at a frequency of 5 GHz, designed to provide complementary data to the all-sky surveys of WMAP and Planck, and future CMB ...B-mode polarization imaging surveys. The observing frequency has been chosen to provide a signal that is dominated by Galactic synchrotron emission, but suffers little from Faraday rotation, so that the measured polarization directions provide a good template for higher frequency observations, and carry direct information about the Galactic magnetic field. Telescopes in both northern and southern hemispheres with matched optical performance are used to provide all-sky coverage from a ground-based experiment. A continuous-comparison radiometer and a correlation polarimeter on each telescope provide stable imaging properties such that all angular scales from the instrument resolution of 45 arcmin up to full sky are accurately measured. The northern instrument has completed its survey and the southern instrument has started observing. We expect that C-BASS data will significantly improve the component separation analysis of Planck and other CMB data, and will provide important constraints on the properties of anomalous Galactic dust and the Galactic magnetic field.
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