To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in ...the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.
A genome-wide association study was carried out in 1020 case subjects with recurrent early-onset major depressive disorder (MDD) (onset before age 31) and 1636 control subjects screened to exclude ...lifetime MDD. Subjects were genotyped with the Affymetrix 6.0 platform. After extensive quality control procedures, 671 424 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 25 068 X chromosome SNPs with minor allele frequency greater than 1% were available for analysis. An additional 1 892 186 HapMap II SNPs were analyzed based on imputed genotypic data. Single-SNP logistic regression trend tests were computed, with correction for ancestry-informative principal component scores. No genome-wide significant evidence for association was observed, assuming that nominal P<5 × 10(-8) approximates a 5% genome-wide significance threshold. The strongest evidence for association was observed on chromosome 18q22.1 (rs17077540, P=1.83 × 10(-7)) in a region that has produced some evidence for linkage to bipolar-I or -II disorder in several studies, within an mRNA detected in human brain tissue (BC053410) and approximately 75 kb upstream of DSEL. Comparing these results with those of a meta-analysis of three MDD GWAS data sets reported in a companion article, we note that among the strongest signals observed in the GenRED sample, the meta-analysis provided the greatest support (although not at a genome-wide significant level) for association of MDD to SNPs within SP4, a brain-specific transcription factor. Larger samples will be required to confirm the hypothesis of association between MDD (and particularly the recurrent early-onset subtype) and common SNPs.
Directly detecting thermal emission from young extrasolar planets allows measurement of their atmospheric compositions and luminosities, which are influenced by their formation mechanisms. Using the ...Gemini Planet Imager, we discovered a planet orbiting the ∼20-million-year-old star 51 Eridani at a projected separation of 13 astronomical units. Near-infrared observations show a spectrum with strong methane and water-vapor absorption. Modeling of the spectra and photometry yields a luminosity (normalized by the luminosity of the Sun) of 1.6 to 4.0 × 10–6 and an effective temperature of 600 to 750 kelvin. For this age and luminosity, "hot-start" formation models indicate a mass twice that of Jupiter. This planet also has a sufficiently low luminosity to be consistent with the "cold-start" core-accretion process that may have formed Jupiter.
Phytophthora infestans has been a named pathogen for well over 150 years and yet it continues to "emerge", with thousands of articles published each year on it and the late blight disease that it ...causes. This review explores five attributes of this oomycete pathogen that maintain this constant attention. First, the historical tragedy associated with this disease (Irish potato famine) causes many people to be fascinated with the pathogen. Current technology now enables investigators to answer some questions of historical significance. Second, the devastation caused by the pathogen continues to appear in surprising new locations or with surprising new intensity. Third, populations of P. infestans worldwide are in flux, with changes that have major implications to disease management. Fourth, the genomics revolution has enabled investigators to make tremendous progress in terms of understanding the molecular biology (especially the pathogenicity) of P. infestans. Fifth, there remain many compelling unanswered questions.
With the advent of the Heliophysics/Geospace System Observatory (H/GSO), a complement of multi-spacecraft missions and ground-based observatories to study the space environment, data retrieval, ...analysis, and visualization of space physics data can be daunting. The Space Physics Environment Data Analysis System (SPEDAS), a grass-roots software development platform (
www.spedas.org
), is now officially supported by NASA Heliophysics as part of its data environment infrastructure. It serves more than a dozen space missions and ground observatories and can integrate the full complement of past and upcoming space physics missions with minimal resources, following clear, simple, and well-proven guidelines. Free, modular and configurable to the needs of individual missions, it works in both command-line (ideal for experienced users) and Graphical User Interface (GUI) mode (reducing the learning curve for first-time users). Both options have “crib-sheets,” user-command sequences in ASCII format that can facilitate record-and-repeat actions, especially for complex operations and plotting. Crib-sheets enhance scientific interactions, as users can move rapidly and accurately from exchanges of technical information on data processing to efficient discussions regarding data interpretation and science. SPEDAS can readily query and ingest all International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP)-compatible products from the Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF), enabling access to a vast collection of historic and current mission data. The planned incorporation of Heliophysics Application Programmer’s Interface (HAPI) standards will facilitate data ingestion from distributed datasets that adhere to these standards. Although SPEDAS is currently Interactive Data Language (IDL)-based (and interfaces to Java-based tools such as Autoplot), efforts are under-way to expand it further to work with python (first as an interface tool and potentially even receiving an under-the-hood replacement). We review the SPEDAS development history, goals, and current implementation. We explain its “modes of use” with examples geared for users and outline its technical implementation and requirements with software developers in mind. We also describe SPEDAS personnel and software management, interfaces with other organizations, resources and support structure available to the community, and future development plans.
Summary Background Trial findings show cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and graded exercise therapy (GET) can be effective treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome, but patients' organisations have ...reported that these treatments can be harmful and favour pacing and specialist health care. We aimed to assess effectiveness and safety of all four treatments. Methods In our parallel-group randomised trial, patients meeting Oxford criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome were recruited from six secondary-care clinics in the UK and randomly allocated by computer-generated sequence to receive specialist medical care (SMC) alone or with adaptive pacing therapy (APT), CBT, or GET. Primary outcomes were fatigue (measured by Chalder fatigue questionnaire score) and physical function (measured by short form-36 subscale score) up to 52 weeks after randomisation, and safety was assessed primarily by recording all serious adverse events, including serious adverse reactions to trial treatments. Primary outcomes were rated by participants, who were necessarily unmasked to treatment assignment; the statistician was masked to treatment assignment for the analysis of primary outcomes. We used longitudinal regression models to compare SMC alone with other treatments, APT with CBT, and APT with GET. The final analysis included all participants for whom we had data for primary outcomes. This trial is registered at http://isrctn.org , number ISRCTN54285094. Findings We recruited 641 eligible patients, of whom 160 were assigned to the APT group, 161 to the CBT group, 160 to the GET group, and 160 to the SMC-alone group. Compared with SMC alone, mean fatigue scores at 52 weeks were 3·4 (95% CI 1·8 to 5·0) points lower for CBT (p=0·0001) and 3·2 (1·7 to 4·8) points lower for GET (p=0·0003), but did not differ for APT (0·7 −0·9 to 2·3 points lower; p=0·38). Compared with SMC alone, mean physical function scores were 7·1 (2·0 to 12·1) points higher for CBT (p=0·0068) and 9·4 (4·4 to 14·4) points higher for GET (p=0·0005), but did not differ for APT (3·4 −1·6 to 8·4 points lower; p=0·18). Compared with APT, CBT and GET were associated with less fatigue (CBT p=0·0027; GET p=0·0059) and better physical function (CBT p=0·0002; GET p<0·0001). Subgroup analysis of 427 participants meeting international criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome and 329 participants meeting London criteria for myalgic encephalomyelitis yielded equivalent results. Serious adverse reactions were recorded in two (1%) of 159 participants in the APT group, three (2%) of 161 in the CBT group, two (1%) of 160 in the GET group, and two (1%) of 160 in the SMC-alone group. Interpretation CBT and GET can safely be added to SMC to moderately improve outcomes for chronic fatigue syndrome, but APT is not an effective addition. Funding UK Medical Research Council, Department of Health for England, Scottish Chief Scientist Office, Department for Work and Pensions.
The Plumbing of Land Surface Models Best, M. J.; Abramowitz, G.; Johnson, H. R. ...
Journal of hydrometeorology,
06/2015, Letnik:
16, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) was designed to be a land surface model (LSM) benchmarking intercomparison. ...Unlike the traditional methods of LSM evaluation or comparison, benchmarking uses a fundamentally different approach in that it sets expectations of performance in a range of metrics a priori—before model simulations are performed. This can lead to very different conclusions about LSM performance. For this study, both simple physically basedmodels and empirical relationships were used as the benchmarks. Simulations were performed with 13 LSMs using atmospheric forcing for 20 sites, and then model performance relative to these benchmarks was examined. Results show that even for commonly used statistical metrics, the LSMs’ performance varies considerably when compared to the different benchmarks. All models outperform the simple physically based benchmarks, but for sensible heat flux the LSMs are themselves outperformed by an out-of-sample linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. While moisture information is clearly central to latent heat flux prediction, the LSMs are still outperformed by a three-variable nonlinear regression that uses instantaneous atmospheric humidity and temperature in addition to downward shortwave radiation. These results highlight the limitations of the prevailing paradigm of LSM evaluation that simply compares an LSM to observations and to other LSMs without a mechanism to objectively quantify the expectations of performance. The authors conclude that their results challenge the conceptual view of energy partitioning at the land surface.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In the lowermost layer of the atmosphere—the troposphere—ozone is an important source of the hydroxyl radical, an oxidant that breaks down most pollutants and some greenhouse gases. High ...concentrations of tropospheric ozone are toxic, however, and have a detrimental effect on human health and ecosystem productivity. Moreover, tropospheric ozone itself acts as an effective greenhouse gas. Much of the present tropospheric ozone burden is a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors resulting in widespread increases in ozone concentrations since the late 1800s. At present, east Asia has the fastest-growing ozone precursor emissions. Much of the springtime east Asian pollution is exported eastwards towards western North America. Despite evidence that the exported Asian pollution produces ozone, no previous study has found a significant increase in free tropospheric ozone concentrations above the western USA since measurements began in the late 1970s. Here we compile springtime ozone measurements from many different platforms across western North America. We show a strong increase in springtime ozone mixing ratios during 1995–2008 and we have some additional evidence that a similar rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio has occurred since 1984. We find that the rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio is greatest when measurements are more heavily influenced by direct transport from Asia. Our result agrees with previous modelling studies, which indicate that global ozone concentrations should be increasing during the early part of the twenty-first century as a result of increasing precursor emissions, especially at northern mid-latitudes, with western North America being particularly sensitive to rising Asian emissions. We suggest that the observed increase in springtime background ozone mixing ratio may hinder the USA’s compliance with its ozone air quality standard.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
An extensive program of experiments focused on biomass burning emissions began with a laboratory phase in which vegetative fuels commonly consumed in prescribed fires were collected in the ...southeastern and southwestern US and burned in a series of 71 fires at the US Forest Service Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana. The particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions were measured by gravimetric filter sampling with subsequent analysis for elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and 38 elements. The trace gas emissions were measured by an open-path Fourier transform infrared (OP-FTIR) spectrometer, proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), proton-transfer ion-trap mass spectrometry (PIT-MS), negative-ion proton-transfer chemical-ionization mass spectrometry (NI-PT-CIMS), and gas chromatography with MS detection (GC-MS). 204 trace gas species (mostly non-methane organic compounds (NMOC)) were identified and quantified with the above instruments. Many of the 182 species quantified by the GC-MS have rarely, if ever, been measured in smoke before. An additional 153 significant peaks in the unit mass resolution mass spectra were quantified, but either could not be identified or most of the signal at that molecular mass was unaccounted for by identifiable species. In a second, "field" phase of this program, airborne and ground-based measurements were made of the emissions from prescribed fires that were mostly located in the same land management units where the fuels for the lab fires were collected. A broad variety, but smaller number of species (21 trace gas species and PM2.5) was measured on 14 fires in chaparral and oak savanna in the southwestern US, as well as pine forest understory in the southeastern US and Sierra Nevada mountains of California. The field measurements of emission factors (EF) are useful both for modeling and to examine the representativeness of our lab fire EF. The lab EF/field EF ratio for the pine understory fuels was not statistically different from one, on average. However, our lab EF for "smoldering compounds" emitted from the semiarid shrubland fuels should likely be increased by a factor of ~2.7 to better represent field fires. Based on the lab/field comparison, we present emission factors for 357 pyrogenic species (including unidentified species) for 4 broad fuel types: pine understory, semiarid shrublands, coniferous canopy, and organic soil. To our knowledge this is the most comprehensive measurement of biomass burning emissions to date and it should enable improved representation of smoke composition in atmospheric models. The results support a recent estimate of global NMOC emissions from biomass burning that is much higher than widely used estimates and they provide important insights into the nature of smoke. 31–72% of the mass of gas-phase NMOC species was attributed to species that we could not identify. These unidentified species are not represented in most models, but some provision should be made for the fact that they will react in the atmosphere. In addition, the total mass of gas-phase NMOC divided by the mass of co-emitted PM2.5 averaged about three (range ~2.0–8.7). About 35–64% of the NMOC were likely semivolatile or of intermediate volatility. Thus, the gas-phase NMOC represent a large reservoir of potential precursors for secondary formation of ozone and organic aerosol. For the single lab fire in organic soil about 28% of the emitted carbon was present as gas-phase NMOC and ~72% of the mass of these NMOC was unidentified, highlighting the need to learn more about the emissions from smoldering organic soils. The mass ratio of total NMOC to "NOx as NO" ranged from 11 to 267, indicating that NOx-limited O3 production would be common in evolving biomass burning plumes. The fuel consumption per unit area was 7.0 ± 2.3 Mg ha−1 and 7.7 ± 3.7 Mg ha−1 for pine-understory and semiarid shrubland prescribed fires, respectively.
Formic acid (HCOOH) is one of the most abundant carboxylic acids in the atmosphere. However, current photochemical models cannot fully explain observed concentrations and in particular secondary ...formation of formic acid across various environments. In this work, formic acid measurements made at an urban receptor site (Pasadena) in June-July 2010 during CalNex (California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change) and a site in an oil and gas producing region (Uintah Basin) in January-February 2013 during UBWOS 2013 (Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies) will be discussed. Although the VOC (volatile organic compounds) compositions differed dramatically at the two sites, measured formic acid concentrations were comparable: 2.3 plus or minus 1.3 in UBWOS 2013 and 2.0 plus or minus 1.0 ppb in CalNex. We determine that concentrations of formic acid at both sites were dominated by secondary formation (> 99%). A constrained box model using the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.2) underestimates the measured formic acid concentrations drastically at both sites (by a factor of > 10). Compared to the original MCM model that includes only ozonolysis of unsaturated organic compounds and OH oxidation of acetylene, when we updated yields of ozonolysis of alkenes and included OH oxidation of isoprene, vinyl alcohol chemistry, reaction of formaldehyde with HO2, oxidation of aromatics, and reaction of CH3O2 with OH, the model predictions for formic acid were improved by a factor of 6.4 in UBWOS 2013 and 4.5 in CalNex, respectively. A comparison of measured and modeled HCOOH/acetone ratios is used to evaluate the model performance for formic acid. We conclude that the modified chemical mechanism can explain 19 and 45% of secondary formation of formic acid in UBWOS 2013 and CalNex, respectively. The contributions from aqueous reactions in aerosol and heterogeneous reactions on aerosol surface to formic acid are estimated to be 0-6 and 0-5% in UBWOS 2013 and CalNex, respectively. We observe that air-snow exchange processes and morning fog events may also contribute to ambient formic acid concentrations during UBWOS 2013 (~ 20% in total). In total, 53-59 in UBWOS 2013 and 50-55% in CalNex of secondary formation of formic acid remains unexplained. More work on formic acid formation pathways is needed to reduce the uncertainties in the sources and budget of formic acid and to narrow the gaps between measurements and model results.
PDF
