Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model ...of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use ...mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease Mordecai, Erin A.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Grossman, Marissa K. ...
Ecology letters,
October 2019, Letnik:
22, Številka:
10
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Mosquito‐borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate ...change. Here, we review how trait‐based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC and declining to zero below 9–23ºC and above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of ...mosquito and parasite life‐history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal‐response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.
Extrinsic environmental factors influence the spatiotemporal dynamics of many organisms, including insects that transmit the pathogens responsible for vector‐borne diseases (VBDs). Temperature is an ...especially important constraint on the fitness of a wide variety of ectothermic insects. A mechanistic understanding of how temperature impacts traits of ectotherms, and thus the distribution of ectotherms and vector‐borne infections, is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission of VBDs like malaria. However, the response of transmission to temperature and other drivers is complex, as thermal traits of ectotherms are typically nonlinear, and they interact to determine transmission constraints. In this study, we assess and compare the effect of temperature on the transmission of two malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, by two malaria vector species, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles stephensi. We model the nonlinear responses of temperature dependent mosquito and parasite traits (mosquito development rate, bite rate, fecundity, proportion of eggs surviving to adulthood, vector competence, mortality rate, and parasite development rate) and incorporate these traits into a suitability metric based on a model for the basic reproductive number across temperatures. Our model predicts that the optimum temperature for transmission suitability is similar for the four mosquito–parasite combinations assessed in this study, but may differ at the thermal limits. More specifically, we found significant differences in the upper thermal limit between parasites spread by the same mosquito (A. stephensi) and between mosquitoes carrying P. falciparum. In contrast, at the lower thermal limit the significant differences were primarily between the mosquito species that both carried the same pathogen (e.g., A. stephensi and A. gambiae both with P. falciparum). Using prevalence data, we show that the transmission suitability metric ST$$ S(T) $$ calculated from our mechanistic model is consistent with observed P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and Asia but is equivocal for P. vivax prevalence in Asia, and inconsistent with P. vivax prevalence in Africa. We mapped risk to illustrate the number of months various areas in Africa and Asia predicted to be suitable for malaria transmission based on this suitability metric. This mapping provides spatially explicit predictions for suitability and transmission risk.
Abstract The interactions of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics are complex and changeable, influencing ...the abundance and distribution of vectors and the pathogens they transmit. In this study, 27 years of cross-sectional malaria survey data (1990–2017) were used to examine the effects of these factors on Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria presence at the community level in Africa and Asia. Monthly long-term, open-source data for each factor were compiled and analyzed using generalized linear models and classification and regression trees. Both temperature and precipitation exhibited unimodal relationships with malaria, with a positive effect up to a point after which a negative effect was observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Overall decline in malaria from 2000 to 2012 was well captured by the models, as was the resurgence after that. The models also indicated higher malaria in regions with lower economic and development indicators. Malaria is driven by a combination of environmental, geographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors, and in this study, we demonstrated two approaches to capturing this complexity of drivers within models. Identifying these key drivers, and describing their associations with malaria, provides key information to inform planning and prevention strategies and interventions to reduce malaria burden.
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts ...from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (
,
,
, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
Vector‐borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, ...population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito‐borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito‐borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector‐borne pathogen transmission.
This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito‐borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector‐borne pathogen transmission.
The thermal sensitivities of organisms regulate a wide range of ecological interactions, including host–parasite dynamics. The effect of temperature on disease ecology can be remarkably complex in ...disease systems where the hosts are ectothermic and where thermal conditions constrain pathogen reproductive rates. Amphibian chytridiomycosis, caused by the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a lethal fungal disease that is influenced by temperature. However, recent temperature studies have produced contradictory findings, suggesting that our current understanding of thermal effects on Bd may be incomplete. We investigated how temperature affects three different Bd strains to evaluate diversity in thermal responses. We quantified growth across the entire thermal range of Bd, and beyond the known thermal limits (T
max and T
min). Our results show that all Bd strains remained viable and grew following 24 h freeze (–12 °C) and heat shock (28 °C) treatments. Additionally, we found that two Bd strains had higher logistic growth rates (r) and carrying capacities (K) at the upper and lower extremities of the temperature range, and especially in low temperature conditions (2–3 °C). In contrast, a third strain exhibited relatively lower growth rates and carrying capacities at these same thermal extremes. Overall, our results suggest that there is considerable variation among Bd strains in thermal tolerance, and they establish a new thermal sensitivity profile for Bd. More generally, our findings point toward important questions concerning the mechanisms that dictate fungal thermal tolerances and temperature-dependent pathogenesis in other fungal disease systems.
Intranasal delivery has been shown to noninvasively deliver drugs from the nose to the brain in minutes along the olfactory and trigeminal nerve pathways, bypassing the blood−brain barrier. However, ...no one has investigated whether nasally applied drugs target orofacial structures, despite high concentrations observed in the trigeminal nerve innervating these tissues. Following intranasal administration of lidocaine to rats, trigeminally innervated structures (teeth, temporomandibular joint (TMJ), and masseter muscle) were found to have up to 20-fold higher tissue concentrations of lidocaine than the brain and blood as measured by ELISA. This concentration difference could allow intranasally administered therapeutics to treat disorders of orofacial structures (i.e., teeth, TMJ, and masseter muscle) without causing unwanted side effects in the brain and the rest of the body. In this study, an intranasally administered infrared dye reached the brain within 10 minutes. Distribution of dye is consistent with dye entering the trigeminal nerve after intranasal administration through three regions with high drug concentrations in the nasal cavity: the middle concha, the maxillary sinus, and the choana. In humans the trigeminal nerve passes through the maxillary sinus to innervate the maxillary teeth. Delivering lidocaine intranasally may provide an effective anesthetic technique for a noninvasive maxillary nerve block. Intranasal delivery could be used to target vaccinations and treat disorders with fewer side effects such as tooth pain, TMJ disorder, trigeminal neuralgia, headache, and brain diseases.
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