A new database of weather and circulation type catalogs is presented comprising 17 automated classification methods and five subjective classifications. It was compiled within COST Action 733 ...“Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions” in order to evaluate different methods for weather and circulation type classification. This paper gives a technical description of the included methods using a new conceptual categorization for classification methods reflecting the strategy for the definition of types. Methods using predefined types include manual and threshold based classifications while methods producing types derived from the input data include those based on eigenvector techniques, leader algorithms and optimization algorithms. In order to allow direct comparisons between the methods, the circulation input data and the methods’ configuration were harmonized for producing a subset of standard catalogs of the automated methods. The harmonization includes the data source, the climatic parameters used, the classification period as well as the spatial domain and the number of types. Frequency based characteristics of the resulting catalogs are presented, including variation of class sizes, persistence, seasonal and inter-annual variability as well as trends of the annual frequency time series. The methodological concept of the classifications is partly reflected by these properties of the resulting catalogs. It is shown that the types of subjective classifications compared to automated methods show higher persistence, inter-annual variation and long-term trends. Among the automated classifications optimization methods show a tendency for longer persistence and higher seasonal variation. However, it is also concluded that the distance metric used and the data preprocessing play at least an equally important role for the properties of the resulting classification compared to the algorithm used for type definition and assignment.
L’analyse de scénario en pratique clinique Le Niger, Catherine; Jourdain, Sylvie; Daniel, Lénaïg
Transfusion clinique et biologique : journal de la Société française de transfusion sanguine,
November 2016, 2016-11-00, Letnik:
23, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
L’évolution réglementaire de la politique de gestion des risques des établissements de santé (ES) incite à développer au cours des formations des outils validés par la HAS dont l’analyse de scénario ...clinique (ASC). L’ASC permet à partir d’un évènement indésirable grave (EIG) survenu dans un autre ES, de réfléchir sur les causes, d’identifier les vulnérabilités, les points forts et les actions d’amélioration à mettre en oeuvre pour éviter ce dysfonctionnement. Notre objectif est de tester cette méthode de gestion du risque a priori au risque transfusionnel.
La méthode a été expérimentée dans notre établissement par l’EOH. Nous avons intégré l’ASC dans la journée de formation transfusionnelle validante pour le DPC. Le préalable était la construction d’un scénario adapté, à partir d’un accident immunologique par incompatibilité ABO. L’animation des séances était assurée par deux professionnels : le correspondant d’hémovigilance et un cadre de santé formé à la gestion des risques. Une enquête de satisfaction de la méthode auprès des participants a été réalisée.
Les critères de réussite de l’ASC étaient réunis : 1 animateur expert en gestion du risque transfusionnel et 1 animateur expert formé à la méthode, des professionnels de plusieurs unités de soins, un suivi rigoureux des étapes et du temps. Les axes d’amélioration portant essentiellement sur la réalisation de la carte de groupe et l’étape réception ont été réévalués 3 mois après. Neuf questionnaires de satisfaction ont été analysés ; les professionnels étaient satisfaits trouvant la méthode facile. Ils se sont impliqués dans le recherche des causes de l’accident ABO.
L’ASC est une méthode simple, efficace qui en 1 heure, permet aux professionnels d’analyser leurs pratiques, d’identifier leurs défaillances et de proposer des solutions. Les EIG analysés (IG, EIR grade 2 à 4…) constituent une base de données intéressante pour la création de scénarii.
Abstract
The 1783–1784 Laki eruption provides a natural experiment to evaluate the performance of chemistry-transport models in predicting the health impact of air particulate pollution. There are ...few existing daily meteorological observations during the second part of the 18
th
century. Hence, creating reasonable climatological conditions for such events constitutes a major challenge. We reconstructed meteorological fields for the period 1783–1784 based on a technique of analogues described in the Methods. Using these fields and including detailed chemistry we describe the concentrations of sulphur (SO
2
/SO
4
) that prevail over the North Atlantic, the adjoining seas and Western Europe during these 2 years. To evaluate the model, we analyse these results through the prism of two datasets contemporary to the Laki period: • The date of the first appearance of ‘dry fogs’ over Europe, • The excess mortality recorded in French parishes over the period June–September 1783. The sequence of appearances of the dry fogs is reproduced with a very-high degree of agreement to the first dataset. High concentrations of SO
2
/SO
4
are simulated in June 1783 that coincide with a rapid rise of the number of deceased in French parishes records. We show that only a small part of the deceased of the summer of 1783 can be explained by the present-day relationships between PM2.5 and relative risk. The implication of this result is that other external factors such as the particularly warm summer of 1783, and the lack of health care at the time, must have contributed to the sharp increase in mortality over France recorded from June to September 1783.
Extreme droughts are weather phenomena of considerable
importance, involving significant environmental and societal impacts. While
those that have occurred in the comparatively recent period of ...instrumental
measurement are identified and dated on the basis of systematic,
machine-standardized meteorological and hydrological observations, droughts
that took place in the pre-instrumental period are usually described only
through the medium of documentary evidence. The extreme drought of 1842 in
Europe presents a case in which information from documentary data can be
combined with systematic instrumental observations. Seasonal, gridded
European precipitation totals are used herein to describe general DJF, MAM,
and JJA precipitation patterns. Annual variations in monthly temperatures
and precipitation at individual stations are expressed with respect to a
1961–1990 reference period, supplemented by calculation of selected drought
indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; and Palmer Z index). The mean circulation patterns
during the driest months are elucidated by means of sea-level pressure (SLP) maps, the North
Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), and the Central European
Zonal Index (CEZI). Generally drier patterns in 1842 prevailed in January–February and
at various intensities between April and August. The driest patterns in 1842
occurred in a broad zonal belt extending from France to eastern central
Europe. A range of documentary data is used to describe the peculiarities of
agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic droughts, with particular
attention to environmental and societal impacts and human responses to them.
Although overall grain yields were not very strongly influenced, a
particularly bad hay harvest, no aftermath (hay from a second cut), and low
potato yields led to severe problems, especially for those who raised
cattle. Finally, the 1842 drought is discussed in terms of long-term drought
variability, European tree-ring-based scPDSI (self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction, and the broader
context of societal impacts.
The European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations 2 (ERA-CLIM2) is a European Union Seventh Framework Project started in January 2014 and due to be completed in December 2017. It aims to produce ...coupled reanalyses, which are physically consistent datasets describing the evolution of the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and the carbon cycle. ERA-CLIM2 has contributed to advancing the capacity for producing state-of-the-art climate reanalyses that extend back to the early twentieth century. ERA-CLIM2 has led to the generation of the first European ensemble of coupled ocean, sea ice, land, and atmosphere reanalyses of the twentieth century. The project has funded work to rescue and prepare observations and to advance the data-assimilation systems required to generate operational reanalyses, such as the ones planned by the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service. This paper summarizes the main goals of the project, discusses some of its main areas of activities, and presents some of its key results.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea‐level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from ...established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA‐20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA‐CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions.
This study analyzes extremes of geostrophic wind speeds derived from sub-daily surface pressure observations at 13 sites in the European region from the Iberian peninsula to Scandinavia for the ...period from 1878 or later to 2007. It extends previous studies on storminess conditions in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic-European region. It also briefly discusses the relationship between storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that storminess conditions in the region from the Northeast Atlantic to western Europe have undergone substantial decadal or longer time scale fluctuations, with considerable seasonal and regional differences (especially between winter and summer, and between the British Isles-North Sea area and other parts of the region). In the North Sea and the Alps areas, there has been a notable increase in the occurrence frequency of strong geostrophic winds from the mid to the late twentieth century. The results also show that, in the cold season (December–March), the NAO-storminess relationship is significantly positive in the north-central part of this region, but negative in the south-southeastern part.
Instrumental Meteorological Records Before 1850 Brönnimann, Stefan; Allan, Rob; Ashcroft, Linden ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
01/2020, Letnik:
101, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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