The 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines for the management of cervical cancer screening abnormalities recommend 1 of 6 clinical ...actions (treatment, optional treatment or colposcopy/biopsy, colposcopy/biopsy, 1-year surveillance, 3-year surveillance, 5-year return to regular screening) based on the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cancer (CIN 3+) for the many different combinations of current and recent past screening results. This article supports the main guidelines presentation by presenting and explaining the risk estimates that supported the guidelines.
From 2003 to 2017 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), 1.5 million individuals aged 25 to 65 years were screened with human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology cotesting scheduled every 3 years. We estimated immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ for combinations of current test results paired with history of screening test and colposcopy/biopsy results.
Risk tables are presented for different clinical scenarios. Examples of important results are highlighted; for example, the risk posed by most current abnormalities is greatly reduced if the prior screening round was HPV-negative. The immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ used to decide clinical management are shown.
The new risk-based guidelines present recommendations for the management of abnormal screening test and histology results; the key risk estimates supporting guidelines are presented in this article. Comprehensive risk estimates are freely available online at https://CervixCa.nlm.nih.gov/RiskTables.
C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Lung Cancer CHATURVEDI, Anil K; CAPORASO, Neil E; KATKI, Hormuzd A ...
Journal of clinical oncology,
06/2010, Letnik:
28, Številka:
16
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Chronic inflammation could play a role in lung carcinogenesis, underscoring the potential for lung cancer prevention and screening. We investigated the association of circulating high-sensitivity ...C-reactive protein (CRP, an inflammation biomarker) and CRP single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with prospective lung cancer risk.
We conducted a nested case-control study of 592 lung cancer patients and 670 controls with available prediagnostic serum and 378 patients and 447 controls with DNA within the screening arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 77,464). Controls were matched to patients on age, sex, entry year, follow-up time, and smoking. We measured CRP levels in baseline serum samples and genotyped five common CRP SNPs.
Elevated CRP levels were associated with increased lung cancer risk (odds ratio OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.35 to 2.89; P-trend < .001 for fourth quartile Q4, > or = 5.6 mg/L v Q1 < 1.0 mg/L). The CRP association did not differ significantly by histology, follow-up time, or smoking status, but was most apparent for squamous cell carcinomas (OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.30 to 6.54), 2 to 5 years before lung cancer diagnosis (OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.24 to 4.39), and among former smokers (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.53 to 4.03) and current smokers (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.06 to 3.41). Although CRP SNPs and haplotypes were associated with CRP levels, they were not associated with lung cancer risk. Ten-year standardized absolute risks of lung cancer were higher with elevated CRP levels among former smokers (Q4: 2.55%; 95% CI, 1.98% to 3.27% v Q1: 1.39%; 95% CI, 1.07% to 1.81%) and current smokers (Q4: 7.37%; 95% CI, 5.81% to 9.33% v Q1: 4.03%; 95% CI, 3.01% to 5.40%).
Elevated CRP levels are associated with subsequently increased lung cancer risk, suggesting an etiologic role for chronic pulmonary inflammation in lung carcinogenesis.
We evaluated proof of principle for resource-efficient, risk-based screening through reanalysis of the Kerala Oral Cancer Screening Trial.
The cluster-randomized trial included three triennial rounds ...of visual inspection (seven clusters, n = 96,516) versus standard of care (six clusters, n = 95,354) and up to 9 years of follow-up. We developed a Cox regression-based risk prediction model for oral cancer incidence. Using this risk prediction model to adjust for the oral cancer risk imbalance between arms, through intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses that accounted for cluster randomization, we calculated the relative (hazard ratios HRs) and absolute (rate differences RDs) screening efficacy on oral cancer mortality and compared screening efficiency across risk thresholds.
Oral cancer mortality was reduced by 27% in the screening versus control arms (HR = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.98), including a 29% reduction in ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users (HR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.99). This relative efficacy was similar across oral cancer risk quartiles (
interaction = .59); consequently, the absolute efficacy increased with increasing model-predicted risk-overall trial: RD in the lowest risk quartile (Q1) = 0.5/100,000 versus 13.4/100,000 in the highest quartile (Q4),
trend = .059 and ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users: Q1 RD = 1.0/100,000 versus Q4 = 22.5/100,000;
trend = .026. In a population akin to the Kerala trial, screening of 100% of individuals would provide 27.1% oral cancer mortality reduction at number needed to screen (NNS) = 2,043. Restriction of screening to ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users with no additional risk stratification would substantially enhance efficiency (43.4% screened for 23.3% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 1,029), whereas risk prediction model-based screening of 50% of ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users at highest risk would further enhance efficiency with little loss in program sensitivity (21.7% screened for 19.7% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 610).
In the Kerala trial, the efficacy of oral cancer screening was greatest in individuals at highest oral cancer risk. These results provide proof of principle that risk-based oral cancer screening could substantially enhance the efficiency of screening programs.
Highlights • Smoking is a significant risk factor for both HPV-positive and HPV-negative oropharynx cancers. • The burden of HPV-positive oropharynx cancers is higher in ever-smokers vs. ...never-smokers. • The high burden of HPV-positive oropharynx cancers among smokers has clinical implications.
The rule of thumb that there is little gain in statistical power by obtaining more than 4 controls per case, is based on type-1 error α = 0.05. However, association studies that evaluate thousands or ...millions of associations use smaller α and may have access to plentiful controls. We investigate power gains, and reductions in p-values, when increasing well beyond 4 controls per case, for small α.
We calculate the power, the median expected p-value, and the minimum detectable odds-ratio (OR), as a function of the number of controls/case, as α decreases.
As α decreases, at each ratio of controls per case, the increase in power is larger than for α = 0.05. For α between 10
and 10
(typical for thousands or millions of associations), increasing from 4 controls per case to 10-50 controls per case increases power. For example, a study with power = 0.2 (α = 5 × 10
) with 1 control/case has power = 0.65 with 4 controls/case, but with 10 controls/case has power = 0.78, and with 50 controls/case has power = 0.84. For situations where obtaining more than 4 controls per case provides small increases in power beyond 0.9 (at small α), the expected p-value can decrease by orders-of-magnitude below α. Increasing from 1 to 4 controls/case reduces the minimum detectable OR toward the null by 20.9%, and from 4 to 50 controls/case reduces by an additional 9.7%, a result which applies regardless of α and hence also applies to "regular" α = 0.05 epidemiology.
At small α, versus 4 controls/case, recruiting 10 or more controls/cases can increase power, reduce the expected p-value by 1-2 orders of magnitude, and meaningfully reduce the minimum detectable OR. These benefits of increasing the controls/case ratio increase as the number of cases increases, although the amount of benefit depends on exposure frequencies and true OR. Provided that controls are comparable to cases, our findings suggest greater sharing of comparable controls in large-scale association studies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract Representative risk estimation is fundamental to clinical decision-making. However, risks are often estimated from non-representative epidemiologic studies, which usually under-represent ...minorities. Model-based methods use population registries to improve external validity of risk estimation but assume hazard ratios are generalisable from samples to the target finite population. ‘Pseudoweighting’ methods improve representativeness of studies by using an external probability-based survey as the reference, but the resulting estimators can be biased due to propensity model misspecification and inefficient due to highly variable pseudoweights or small sample sizes of minorities in the cohort and/or survey. We propose a two-step pseudoweighting procedure that post-stratifies the event rates among age/race/sex strata in the pseudoweighted cohort to the population rates, to produce efficient and robust pure risk estimation (i.e. a cause-specific absolute risk in the absence of competing events). For developing an all-cause mortality risk model representative for the USA, our findings suggest that hazard ratios for minorities are not generalisable, and that surveys can have inadequate numbers of events for minorities. Post-stratification on event rates is crucial for obtaining reliable risk estimation for minority subgroups.
A group of 47 experts representing 23 professional societies, national and international health organizations, and federal agencies met in Bethesda, MD, September 14-15, 2012, to revise the 2006 ...American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Consensus Guidelines. The group's goal was to provide revised evidence-based consensus guidelines for managing women with abnormal cervical cancer screening tests, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) following adoption of cervical cancer screening guidelines incorporating longer screening intervals and co-testing. In addition to literature review, data from almost 1.4 million women in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Care Plan provided evidence on risk after abnormal tests. Where data were available, guidelines prescribed similar management for women with similar risks for CIN 3, AIS, and cancer. Most prior guidelines were reaffirmed. Examples of updates include: Human papillomavirus-negative atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance results are followed with co-testing at 3 years before return to routine screening and are not sufficient for exiting women from screening at age 65 years; women aged 21-24 years need less invasive management, especially for minor abnormalities; postcolposcopy management strategies incorporate co-testing; endocervical sampling reported as CIN 1 should be managed as CIN 1; unsatisfactory cytology should be repeated in most circumstances, even when HPV results from co-testing are known, while most cases of negative cytology with absent or insufficient endocervical cells or transformation zone component can be managed without intensive follow-up.
To manage cervical screening abnormalities, the 2019 ASCCP management consensus guidelines will recommend clinical action on the basis of risk of cervical precancer and cancer. This article details ...the methods used to estimate risk, to determine the risk-based management, and to validate that the risk-based recommendations are of general use in different settings.
Based on 1.5 million patients undergoing triennial cervical screening by cotesting at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2003 to 2017, we estimated risk profiles for different clinical scenarios and combinations of past and current human papillomavirus and cytology test results. We validated the recommended management by comparing with the estimated risks in several external data sources.
Risk and management tables are presented separately by Egemen et al. and Demarco et al. Risk-based management derived from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California largely agreed with the management implied from the estimated risks of the other data sources.
The new risk-based guidelines present management of abnormal cervical screening results. By describing the steps used to develop these guidelines, the methods presented in this article can provide a basis for future extensions of the risk-based guidelines.
Electronic health records (EHRs) can be a cost‐effective data source for forming cohorts and developing risk models in the context of disease screening. However, important issues need to be handled: ...competing outcomes, left‐censoring of prevalent disease, interval‐censoring of incident disease, and uncertainty of prevalent disease when accurate disease ascertainment is not conducted at baseline. Furthermore, novel tests that are costly and limited in availability can be conducted on stored biospecimens selected as samples from EHRs by using different sampling fractions. We extend sample‐weighted semiparametric marginal mixture models to estimating competing risks. For flexible modeling of relative risks, a general transformation of the subdistribution hazard function and regression parameters is used. We propose a numerical algorithm for nonparametrically calculating the maximum likelihood estimates for subdistribution hazard functions and regression parameters. Methods for calculating the consistent confidence intervals for relative and absolute risk estimates are presented. The proposed algorithm and methods show reliable finite sample performance through simulation studies. We apply our methods to a cohort assembled from EHRs at a health maintenance organization where we estimate cumulative risk of cervical precancer/cancer and incidence of infection‐clearance by HPV genotype among human papillomavirus (HPV) positive women. There is no significant difference in 3‐year HPV‐clearance rates across different HPV types, but 3‐year cumulative risk of progression‐to‐precancer/cancer from HPV‐16 is relatively higher than the other HPV genotypes.
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