THE MATERHORN Fernando, H. J. S.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Di Sabatino, S. ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
11/2015, Letnik:
96, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Emerging application areas such as air pollution in megacities, wind energy, urban security, and operation of unmanned aerial vehicles have intensified scientific and societal interest in mountain ...meteorology. To address scientific needs and help improve the prediction of mountain weather, the U.S. Department of Defense has funded a research effort—the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) Program—that draws the expertise of a multidisciplinary, multiinstitutional, and multinational group of researchers. The program has four principal thrusts, encompassing modeling, experimental, technology, and parameterization components, directed at diagnosing model deficiencies and critical knowledge gaps, conducting experimental studies, and developing tools for model improvements. The access to the Granite Mountain Atmospheric Sciences Testbed of the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, as well as to a suite of conventional and novel high-end airborne and surface measurement platforms, has provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate phenomena of time scales from a few seconds to a few days, covering spatial extents of tens of kilometers down to millimeters. This article provides an overview of the MATERHORN and a glimpse at its initial findings. Orographic forcing creates a multitude of time-dependent submesoscale phenomena that contribute to the variability of mountain weather at mesoscale. The nexus of predictions by mesoscale model ensembles and observations are described, identifying opportunities for further improvements in mountain weather forecasting.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Over the past decade, numerous numerical modeling studies have shown that deep convective clouds can produce gravity waves that induce a significant vertical flux of horizontal momentum. ...Such studies used models with horizontal grid spacings of O(1 km) and produced strong gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths greater than about 20 km. This paper is an examination of how simulated gravity waves and their momentum flux are sensitive to model resolution. It is shown that increases in horizontal resolution produce more power in waves with shorter horizontal wavelengths. This change in the gravity waves’ spectra influences their vertical propagation. In some cases, gravity waves that were vertically propagating in coarse simulations become vertically trapped in fine simulations, which strongly influences the vertical flux of horizontal momentum.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The authors evaluate whether the structure and intensity of simulated squall lines can be explained by "RKW theory," which most specifically addresses how density currents evolve in sheared ...environments. In contrast to earlier studies, this study compares output from four numerical models, rather than from just one. All of the authors' simulations support the qualitative application of RKW theory, whereby squall-line structure is primarily governed by two effects: the intensity of the squall line's surface-based cold pool, and the low- to midlevel environmental vertical wind shear. The simulations using newly developed models generally support the theory's quantitative application, whereby an optimal state for system structure also optimizes system intensity. However, there are significant systematic differences between the newer numerical models and the older model that was originally used to develop RKW theory. Two systematic differences are analyzed in detail, and causes for these differences are proposed. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The authors demonstrate that much can be learned about the performance of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by examining the temporal modes of its simulated rainfall. Observations from the ...Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network are used to evaluate the rainfall frequency, and its diurnal and semidiurnal modes, in simulations made by a preliminary version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the conterminous United States during the summer of 2003. Simulations and observations were broadly similar in the normalized amplitudes of their diurnal and semidiurnal modes, but not in the modes' phases, and not in overall frequency of rain. Simulated rain fell too early, and light rain was too frequent. The model also did not produce the distinct, nocturnal maximum in rainfall frequency that is integral to the hydrologic cycle of the Great Plains. The authors provide evidence that there were regional and phenomenological dependencies to the WRF model's performance.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
On the evening of 28 July 1997 the city of Fort Collins, Colorado, experienced a devastating flash flood that caused five fatalities and over 200 million dollars in damage. Maximum accumulations of ...rainfall in the western part of the city exceeded 10 in. in a 6-h period. This study presents a multiscale meteorological overview of the event utilizing a wide variety of instrument platforms and data including rain gauge, CSU–CHILL multiparameter radar, Next Generation Radar, National Lightning Detection Network, surface and Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System observations, satellite observations, and synoptic analyses.
Many of the meteorological features associated with the Fort Collins flash flood typify those of similar events in the western United States. Prominent features in the Fort Collins case included the presence of a 500-hPa ridge axis over northeastern Colorado; a weak shortwave trough on the western side of the ridge; postfrontal easterly upslope flow at low levels; weak to moderate southwesterly flow aloft; a deep, moist warm layer in the sounding; and the occurrence of a quasi-stationary rainfall system. In contrast to previous events such as the Rapid City or Big Thompson floods, the thermodynamic environment of the Fort Collins storm exhibited only modest instability, consistent with low lightning flash rates and an absence of hail and other severe storm signatures.
Radar, rain gauge, and lightning observations provided a detailed view of the cloud and precipitation morphology. Polarimetric radar observations suggest that a coupling between warm-rain collision coalescence processes and ice processes played an important role in the rainfall production. Dual-Doppler radar and mesoscale wind analyses revealed that the low-level flow field associated with a bow echo located 60 km to the southeast of Fort Collins may have been responsible for a brief easterly acceleration in the low-level winds during the last 1.5 h of the event. The enhanced flow interacted with both topography and the convection located over Fort Collins, resulting in a quasi-stationary convective system and the heaviest rainfall of the evening.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
6.
DO METEOROLOGISTS SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS? Parker, Matthew D.; Knievel, Jason C.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
03/2005, Letnik:
86, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Meteorologists and other weather enthusiasts sometimes lament that they live inweather holes—places that receive less exciting weather than do their surroundings. This belief seems to stem from ...countless hours spent gazing at thunderstorms on displays of radar reflectivity. To test objectively whether radar observations truly bear out this belief, the authors analyzed 6 yr of composite reflectivity from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network. Statistics for 28 target cities, selected for their prominent meteorological communities, are compared with statistics for random points in the conterminous United States to see whether any of the targets is truly a weather hole or, perhaps, ahot spot—the counterpart to a hole. Holes and hot spots are defined by the frequency of convective echoes at a target relative to echoes in the surrounding region, and by the probability that convective echoes near a target were followed shortly by a convective echo at that target.
The data do, indeed, reveal me-soscale variability in occurrences of thunderstorms, as well as distinct signatures of storms' motion and the footprints of stormy regions at each target. However, although the data support the basic concept of convective weather holes and hot spots, only one of the meteorological targets fully met the authors' criteria for a hole and only one fully met their criteria for a hot spot. During the 6 yr studied, nearly all of the selected targets experienced convective storms about as often as their immediate surroundings did.
These results suggest that meteorologists are unnecessarily cranky about the frequency of storms in their hometowns. Meteorologists' belief that they live in weather holes may reveal the need to explore more deeply the statistical behavior of moist convection. The authors comment on some of the strengths and weaknesses of using composite reflectivity alone for that exploration and for determining weather holes and hot spots. Finally, the authors speculate that, with the proper quality control, statistics might serve in the near future as very powerful tools for probabilistic forecast guidance.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
SUPPLEMENT Fernando, H. J. S.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Di Sabatino, S. ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
11/2015, Letnik:
96, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background
Endoscopic treatment of esophageal leaks, mostly by covered stents or endoscopic vacuum therapy (EVT), has largely improved the clinical outcome in the last decade. However, both ...techniques suffer from significant limitations. Covered stents are hampered by a high rate of migration and missing functional drainage, whereas endoluminal EVT devices are limited by obstruction of the GI tract. The new design of the VACStent makes it a fully covered stent within a polyurethane sponge cylinder, allowing EVT while stent passage is still open. Initial clinical applications have demonstrated the fundamental concept of the VACStent.
Method
A prospective multicenter open-label study was performed with the primary endpoint safe practicality, complete leak coverage, and effective suction-treatment of esophageal leaks. Secondary endpoints were prevention of septic conditions, successful leak healing, and complications, in particular stent-migration, local erosions and bleeding.
Results
Fifteen patients with different, mostly postoperative anastomotic leaks were enrolled in three centers. A total of 41 VACStents were implanted. The mean number of VACStents per patient was 2.7, with a mean duration of VACStent treatment of 15 days. The primary endpoint was met in all VACStent applications (41/41 implants), resulting in a leak healing rate of 80% (12/15 patients). Septic episodes were prevented in 93% (14/15 patients) and there was no mortality. There were no severe device-related adverse events (SADE) nor significant local bleeding or erosion. Minor stent-dislocation and migration, respectively, was observed in 7%. Oral intake of liquids or food was documented in 87% (13/15 patients). One anastomotic stenosis was seen during follow-up.
Conclusions
VACStent treatment is a safe and effective treatment in esophageal leaks which can be covered by the sponge cylinder. Its application was described as easy and resembling that of conventional GI stents, with an impressive clinical success rate comparable to EVT outcomes. The VACStent offers a new option for clinical treatment of critical situations in esophageal perforations and anastomotic sutureline failures.
An MCS can shrink its local Rossby radius by saturating the stratiform region, which means a potentially lowervalued Nm replaces N, and by generating a vortical circulation, which increases 2VR21 ...(Schubert and Hack 1982; Chen and Frank 1993). ...an MCS first triggers mostly propagative responses in the atmosphere, then as the system grows and matures it converts increasingly more energy into advective responses. ...soundings from the AircraftCommunication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) are adequately resolved in the vertical, but in the lower and middle troposphere are extremely limited in horizontal coverage.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Many applications rely on a correct estimation of the convective boundary layer (CBL) depth over mountainous terrain, but often these applications use numerical model simulations. Although models ...inevitably smooth terrain, the amount of smoothing depends on grid spacing. We investigate the behavior of the CBL in coarse- and fine-grid models applied to mountainous terrain by using output from an operational mesoscale modeling system and by performing quasi-idealized simulations. We investigate different areas in different climate zones using different CBL top derivation methods, grid spacing ratios, planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and terrain smoothing. We find that when compared to fine-grid simulations, CBL depths are systematically larger in coarse domains over mountaintops, and to a lesser extent in valleys. On average, differences between coarse- and fine-domains over mountaintops could reach around 10%. In certain locations, differences could be as high as 25%. We attribute the result to terrain smoothing. Similarly, when using a coarse-grid CBL height (relative to mean sea level) interpolated using fine-grid terrain information, there is good agreement with fine-grid CBL depths over mountaintops and less agreement in valleys. Our results have implications for applications that use output from coarse model grids in mountainous terrain. These include inverse modeling studies (e.g., greenhouse gas budget estimations or integrated water vapor transport), PBL evaluation studies, climate research, air quality applications, planning and executing prescribed burns, and studies associated with precipitation over mountainous terrain.
PDF
