Empirical distribution functions of flood peaks in small catchments sometimes show discontinuities in the slope; that is, the largest flood peaks are significantly larger than the rest of the record. ...The aim of this paper is to understand whether these discontinuities, or step changes, can be a consistent effect of hydrological processes. We conducted field surveys in two Austrian alpine catchments 73 km2in size to map the spatial patterns of surface runoff generation and hydrogeologic storage. On the basis of this information, we selected the parameters of a distributed continuous runoff model, which is designed to simulate well the point when the storage capacity of the catchment is exhausted. Then we calibrated a stochastic rainfall model and performed Monte Carlo simulations of runoff to generate flood frequency curves for the two catchments. The curves exhibit a step change around a return period of 30 years. An analysis of the storage capacities suggests that this step change is due to a threshold of storage capacity being exceeded, which causes fast surface runoff in large parts of the catchments. The threshold occurs when the storage within the catchment is spatially rather uniform. To identify step changes, reliable estimates of the catchment storage capacity are needed on the basis of detailed hydrogeological information. The occurrence of a step change is of importance for estimating low‐probability floods since the flood estimates with the step change accounted for can be significantly different from those based on commonly used distribution functions. We therefore suggest that step changes in the flood frequency curve of small catchments can be real and their possible presence should be taken into account in design flood estimation.
Key Points
For the examined catchments step changes in the flood frequency curve are real
In this case they are caused by threshold processes related to storage capacity
Step changes significantly affect flood design values
Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of ...precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less), the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h.
We report in this article on the measurement of the optical absorption of moderately doped crystalline silicon samples at 1550 nm, which is a candidate material for the main optics of the low ...temperature interferometer of the Einstein Telescope (ET). We observe a nearly constant absorption from room temperature down to cryogenic temperatures for two silicon samples presenting an optical absorption of 0.029 cm−1 and 780 ppm cm−1, both crystals doped with boron. This is in contradiction to what was assumed previously-a negligible optical absorption at low temperature due to the carrier freezeout. As the main consequence, if the silicon intrinsic absorption can not be lowered, the cross section of the mirror suspension of the ET must be increased to be able to carry away the excess heat generated by the partially absorbed laser beam during the operation of the interferometer.
Oocyte meiotic spindles of many species are anastral and lack centrosomes to nucleate microtubules. Assembly of anastral spindles occurs by a pathway that differs from that of most mitotic spindles. ...Here we analyze assembly of the Drosophila oocyte meiosis I spindle and the role of the Nonclaret disjunctional (Ncd) motor in spindle assembly using wild-type and mutant Ncd fused to GFP. Unexpectedly, we observe motor-associated asters at germinal vesicle breakdown that migrate towards the condensed chromosomes, where they nucleate microtubules at the chromosomes. Newly nucleated microtubules are randomly oriented, then become organized around the bivalent chromosomes. We show that the meiotic spindle forms by lateral associations of microtubule-coated chromosomes into a bipolar spindle. Lateral interactions between microtubule-associated bivalent chromosomes may be mediated by microtubule crosslinking by the Ncd motor, based on analysis of fixed oocytes. We report here that spindle assembly occurs in an ncd mutant defective for microtubule motility, but lateral interactions between microtubule-coated chromosomes are unstable, indicating that Ncd movement along microtubules is needed to stabilize interactions between chromosomes. A more severe ncd mutant that probably lacks ATPase activity prevents formation of lateral interactions between chromosomes and causes defective microtubule elongation. Anastral Drosophila oocyte meiosis I spindle assembly thus involves motor-associated asters to nucleate microtubules and Ncd motor activity to form and stabilize interactions between microtubule-associated chromosomes during the assembly process. This is the first complete account of assembly of an anastral spindle and the specific steps that require Ncd motor activity, revealing new and unexpected features of the process.
•We compare the NDSI from C6 MODIS products against daily snow depth observations.•The median snow cover mapping accuracy is larger than 97% in Austria.•The best NDSI thresholds vary seasonally and ...with elevation and improve snow cover mapping by up to 10%.
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover maps have been successfully applied in regional snow cover mapping and hydrological modelling in many regions. The new MODIS products (i.e. Collection 6) provide information about the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) instead of simple binary information about snow cover of the former products. The objective of this study is to investigate the sensitivity and accuracy of different NDSI thresholds used for snow cover mapping and to compare the results with former snow cover classification based on a fixed NDSI threshold (NDSI = 0.4). The accuracy is tested for both Aqua (MYD10A1) and Terra (MOD10A1) daily snow cover products by using daily snow depth observations at 665 climate stations in Austria in the period 2002–2014. The results show the overall classification accuracy over 665 climate stations to be larger than 97% (97.4% for Terra and 97.6% for Aqua) in Austria. The best NDSI thresholds fitted to individual stations can differ from a fixed threshold (NDSI = 0.4) and are sensitive to the snow depth threshold indicating snow cover at the ground. The NDSI thresholds vary seasonally, decrease with increasing elevation and are lower in forested than open land cover settings. We found that the NDSI thresholds fitted to different elevation and land cover classes improve regional snow cover mapping by 3–10% in forested regions above 900 m a.s.l. in January to March.
A viable technique for the preparation of highly thermal conductive joints between sapphire components in gravitational wave detectors is presented. The mechanical loss of such a joint was determined ...to be as low as 2 × 10−3 at 20 K and 2 × 10−2 at 300 K. The thermal noise performance of a typical joint is compared to the requirements of the Japanese gravitational wave detector, KAGRA. It is shown that using such an indium joint in the suspension system allows it to operate with low thermal noise. Additionally, results on the maximum amount of heat which can be extracted via indium joints are presented. It is found that sapphire parts, joined by means of indium, are able to remove the residual heat load in the mirrors of KAGRA.
The aim of this paper is to examine the benefits of updating soil moisture of a distributed rainfall runoff model in forecasting large floods. The updating method uses Ensemble Kalman Filter concepts ...and involves an iterative similarity approach that avoids calculation of the Jacobian that relates the states and the observations. The soil moisture is updated based on observed runoff in a real-time mode, and is then used as an initial condition for the flood forecasts. The case study is set in the 622
km
2 Kamp catchment, Austria. The results indicate that the updating procedure indeed improves the forecasts substantially. The mean absolute normalised error of the peak flows of six large floods decreases from 25% to 12% (3
h lead time), and from 25% to 19% (48
h lead time). The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of forecasting runoff for these flood events increases from 0.79 to 0.92 (3
h lead time), and from 0.79 to 0.88 (48
h lead time). The flood forecasting system has been in operational use since early 2006.
Mature oocytes of Drosophila are arrested in metaphase of meiosis I. Upon activation by ovulation or fertilization, oocytes undergo a series of rapid changes that have not been directly visualized ...previously. We report here the use of the Nonclaret disjunctional (Ncd) microtubule motor protein fused to the green fluorescent protein (GFP) to monitor changes in the meiotic spindle of live oocytes after activation in vitro. Meiotic spindles of metaphase-arrested oocytes are relatively stable, however, meiotic spindles of in vitro-activated oocytes are highly dynamic: the spindles elongate, rotate around their long axis, and undergo an acute pivoting movement to reorient perpendicular to the oocyte surface. Many oocytes spontaneously complete the meiotic divisions, permitting visualization of progression from meiosis I to II. The movements of the spindle after oocyte activation provide new information about the dynamic changes in the spindle that occur upon re-entry into meiosis and completion of the meiotic divisions. Spindles in live oocytes mutant for a loss-of-function ncd allele fused to gfp were also imaged. The genesis of spindle defects in the live mutant oocytes provides new insights into the mechanism of Ncd function in the spindle during the meiotic divisions
Many physical, chemical and biological processes taking place at the land surface are strongly influenced by the amount of water stored within the upper soil layers. Therefore, many scientific ...disciplines require soil moisture observations for developing, evaluating and improving their models. One of these disciplines is meteorology where soil moisture is important due to its control on the exchange of heat and water between the soil and the lower atmosphere. Soil moisture observations may thus help to improve the forecasts of air temperature, air humidity and precipitation. However, until recently, soil moisture observations had only been available over a limited number of regional soil moisture networks. This has hampered scientific progress as regards the characterisation of land surface processes not just in meteorology but many other scientific disciplines as well. Fortunately, in recent years, satellite soil moisture data have increasingly become available. One of the freely available global soil moisture data sets is derived from the backscatter measurements acquired by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) that is a C-band active microwave remote sensing instrument flown on board of the Meteorological Operational (METOP) satellite series. ASCAT was designed to observe wind speed and direction over the oceans and was initially not foreseen for monitoring soil moisture over land. Yet, as argued in this review paper, the characteristics of the ASCAT instrument, most importantly its wavelength (5.7 cm), its high radiometric accuracy, and its multiple-viewing capabilities make it an attractive sensor for measuring soil moisture. Moreover, given the operational status of ASCAT, and its promising long-term prospects, many geoscientific applications might benefit from using ASCAT soil moisture data. Nonetheless, the ASCAT soil moisture product is relatively complex, requiring a good understanding of its properties before it can be successfully used in applications. To provide a comprehensive overview of the major characteristics and caveats of the ASCAT soil moisture product, this paper describes the ASCAT instrument and the soil moisture processor and near-real-time distribution service implemented by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). A review of the most recent validation studies shows that the quality of ASCAT soil moisture product is - with the exception of arid environments -comparable to, and over some regions (e.g. Europe) even better than currently available soil moisture data derived from passive microwave sensors. Further, a review of applications studies shows that the use of the ASCAT soil moisture product is particularly advanced in the fields of numerical weather prediction and hydrologic modelling. But also in other application areas such as yield monitoring, epidemiologic modelling, or societal risks assessment some first progress can be noted. Considering the generally positive evaluation results, it is expected that the ASCAT soil moisture product will increasingly be used by a growing number of rather diverse land applications.
Recent advances in soil moisture remote sensing have
produced satellite data sets with improved soil moisture mapping under
vegetation and with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study,
...we evaluate the potential of a new, experimental version of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil water index data set for multiple objective calibrations of a conceptual hydrologic model. The analysis is performed in 213 catchments in Austria for the period 2000–2014. An HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning)-type hydrologic model is calibrated based on runoff
data, ASCAT soil moisture data, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data for various
calibration variants. Results show that the inclusion of soil moisture data
in the calibration mainly improves the soil moisture simulations, the
inclusion of snow data mainly improves the snow simulations, and the inclusion of both of them improves both soil moisture and snow simulations to almost the same extent. The snow data are more efficient at improving snow simulations than the soil moisture data are at improving soil moisture simulations. The improvements of both runoff and soil moisture model efficiencies are larger in low elevation and agricultural catchments than in others. The calibrated snow-related parameters are strongly affected by including snow data and, to a lesser extent, by soil moisture data. In contrast, the soil-related parameters are only affected by the inclusion of soil moisture data. The results indicate that the use of multiple remote sensing products in hydrological modeling can improve the representation of hydrological fluxes and prediction of runoff hydrographs at the catchment scale.
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