This paper explores the urban carbon cycle from the natural sciences perspective, identifying key knowledge gaps and priority areas for future research. The combination of large, concentrated carbon ...fluxes and rapid change makes cities key elements of the carbon cycle and offers the potential for them to serve as “first responders” for climate action. Estimates of urban‐scale carbon fluxes are significantly more uncertain than at larger spatial scales, in part because past studies have mostly avoided local/urban scales where the mix of anthropogenic and natural fluxes is complex and difficult to observationally isolate. To develop effective emission reduction policies, we need to understand emission sources and how they may be changing. Such improved quantification and understanding of underlying processes at the urban scale will not only provide policy‐relevant information and improve the understanding of urban dynamics and future scenarios, but will also translate into better global‐scale anthropogenic flux estimates, and advance our understanding of carbon cycle and climate feedbacks across multiple scales. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and urban carbon flows requires intellectual integration with research communities beyond the natural sciences. Cities can serve as interdisciplinary process laboratories that are sufficiently constrained in both spatial and governance scale to support truly integrated research by the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. A thoughtfully crafted science research agenda that is grounded in sustained, dense observations relevant to estimating urban carbon fluxes and their controlling processes and is focused on a statistically significant sample of cities will advance our understanding of the carbon cycle.
Key Points
Large carbon fluxes and rapid change make cities key carbon cycle elements
Cities represent ideal interdisciplinary carbon cycle process laboratories
Sustained campaigns in representative cities will transform urban carbon science
Methane (CH4) plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and short-term forcing of climate. A clear understanding of atmospheric CH4’s budget of emissions and losses is required to aid ...sustainable management of Earth’s future environment. We used an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (JAMSTEC’s ACTM) for simulating atmospheric CH4. A global inverse modeling system has been developed for estimating CH4 emissions from 53 land regions for 2002-2012 using measurements at 39 sites. An ensemble of 7 inversions is performed by varying a priori emissions. Global net CH4 emissions varied between 505-509 and 524-545 Tg yr-1 during 2002-2006 and 2008-2012, respectively (ranges based on 7 inversion cases), with a step like increase in 2007 in agreement with atmospheric measurements. The inversion system did not account for interannual variations in OH radicals reacting with CH4 in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that the recent update of the EDGAR inventory (version 4.2FT2010) overestimated the global total emissions by at least 25 Tg yr-1 in 2010. The increase in CH4 emission since 2004 originated in the tropical and southern hemisphere regions, coinciding with an increase in non-dairy cattle stocks by ∼10 % from 2002 (with 1056 million heads) to 2012, leading to ∼10 Tg yr-1 increase in emissions from enteric fermentation. All 7 ensemble cases robustly estimated the interannual variations in emissions, but poorly constrained the seasonal cycle amplitude or phase consistently for all regions due to the sparse observational network. Forward simulation results using both a priori and a posteriori emissions are compared with independent aircraft measurements for validation. Based on the results of the comparison, we reject the upper limit (545 Tg yr-1) of global total emissions as 14 Tg yr-1 too high during 2008-2012, which allows us to further conclude that the increase in CH4 emissions over the East Asia (mainly China) region was 7-8 Tg yr-1 between the 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 periods, contrary to 1-17 Tg yr-1 in the a priori emissions.
Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico ...with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have more than doubled since the beginning of the industrial age, making CH4 the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide ...(CO2). The oil and gas sector represents one of the major anthropogenic CH4 emitters as it is estimated to account for 22 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions. An airborne field campaign was conducted in April–May 2019 to study CH4 emissions from offshore gas facilities in the southern North Sea with the aim of deriving emission estimates using a top-down (measurement-led) approach. We present CH4 fluxes for six UK and five Dutch offshore platforms or platform complexes using the well-established mass balance flux method. We identify specific gas production emissions and emission processes (venting and fugitive or flaring and combustion) using observations of co-emitted ethane (C2H6) and CO2. We compare our top-down estimated fluxes with a ship-based top-down study in the Dutch sector and with bottom-up estimates from a globally gridded annual inventory, UK national annual point-source inventories, and operator-based reporting for individual Dutch facilities. In this study, we find that all the inventories, except for the operator-based facility-level reporting, underestimate measured emissions, with the largest discrepancy observed with the globally gridded inventory. Individual facility reporting, as available for Dutch sites for the specific survey date, shows better agreement with our measurement-based estimates. For all the sampled Dutch installations together, we find that our estimated flux of (122.9 ± 36.8) kg h−1 deviates by a factor of 0.64 (0.33–12) from reported values (192.8 kg h−1). Comparisons with aircraft observations in two other offshore regions (the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) show that measured, absolute facility-level emission rates agree with the general distribution found in other offshore basins despite different production types (oil, gas) and gas production rates, which vary by 2 orders of magnitude. Therefore, mitigation is warranted equally across geographies.
The Gulf of Mexico is the largest offshore fossil fuel production basin in the United States. Decisions on expanding production in the region legally depend on assessments of the climate impact of ...new growth. Here, we collect airborne observations and combine them with previous surveys and inventories to estimate the climate impact of current field operations. We evaluate all major on-site greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide (CO
) from combustion, and methane from losses and venting. Using these findings, we estimate the climate impact per unit of energy of produced oil and gas (the carbon intensity). We find high methane emissions (0.60 Tg/y 0.41 to 0.81, 95% confidence interval) exceeding inventories. This elevates the average CI of the basin to 5.3 g CO
e/MJ 4.1 to 6.7 (100-y horizon) over twice the inventories. The CI across the Gulf varies, with deep water production exhibiting a low CI dominated by combustion emissions (1.1 g CO
e/MJ), while shallow federal and state waters exhibit an extraordinarily high CI (16 and 43 g CO
e/MJ) primarily driven by methane emissions from central hub facilities (intermediaries for gathering and processing). This shows that production in shallow waters, as currently operated, has outsized climate impact. To mitigate these climate impacts, methane emissions in shallow waters must be addressed through efficient flaring instead of venting and repair, refurbishment, or abandonment of poorly maintained infrastructure. We demonstrate an approach to evaluate the CI of fossil fuel production using observations, considering all direct production emissions while allocating to all fossil products.
When estimating fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions from observed CO2 concentrations, the accuracy can be hampered by biogenic carbon exchanges during the growing season, even for urban ...areas where strong fossil fuel emissions are found. While biogenic carbon fluxes have been studied extensively across natural vegetation types, biogenic carbon fluxes within an urban area have been challenging to quantify due to limited observations and differences between urban and rural regions. Here we developed a simple model representation, i.e., Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) for Modeling Urban biogenic Fluxes (“SMUrF”), that estimates the gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) over cities around the globe. Specifically, we leveraged space-based SIF, machine learning, eddy-covariance (EC) flux data, and ancillary remote-sensing-based products, and we developed algorithms to gap-fill fluxes for urban areas. Grid-level hourly mean net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes are extracted from SMUrF and evaluated against (1) non-gap-filled measurements at 67 EC sites from FLUXNET during 2010–2014 (r>0.7 for most data-rich biomes), (2) independent observations at two urban vegetation and two crop EC sites over Indianapolis from August 2017 to December 2018 (r=0.75), and (3) an urban biospheric model based on fine-grained land cover classification in Los Angeles (r=0.83). Moreover, we compared SMUrF-based NEE with inventory-based FFCO2 emissions over 40 cities and addressed the urban–rural contrast in both the magnitude and timing of CO2 fluxes. To illustrate the application of SMUrF, we used it to interpret a few summertime satellite tracks over four cities and compared the urban–rural gradient in column CO2 (XCO2) anomalies due to NEE against XCO2 enhancements due to FFCO2 emissions. With rapid advances in space-based measurements and increased sampling of SIF and CO2 measurements over urban areas, SMUrF can be useful to inform the biogenic CO2 fluxes over highly vegetated regions during the growing season.
Urban areas are increasingly recognized as a globally important source of methane to the atmosphere; however, the location of methane sources and relative contributions of source sectors are not well ...known. Recent atmospheric measurements in Los Angeles, California, USA, show that more than a third of the city's methane emissions are unaccounted for in inventories and suggest that fugitive fossil emissions are the unknown source. We made on‐road measurements to quantify fine‐scale structure of methane and a suite of complementary trace gases across the Los Angeles Basin in June 2013. Enhanced methane levels were observed across the basin but were unevenly distributed in space. We identified 213 methane hot spots from unknown emission sources. We made direct measurements of ethane to methane (C2H6/CH4) ratios of known methane emission sources in the region, including cattle, geologic seeps, landfills, and compressed natural gas fueling stations, and used these ratios to determine the contribution of biogenic and fossil methane sources to unknown hot spots and to local urban background air. We found that 75% of hot spots were of fossil origin, 20% were biogenic, and 5% of indeterminate source. In regionally integrated air, we observed a wider range of C2H6/CH4 values than observed previously. Fossil fuel sources accounted for 58–65% of methane emissions, with the range depending on the assumed C2H6/CH4 ratio of source end‐members and model structure. These surveys demonstrated the prevalence of fugitive methane emissions across the Los Angeles urban landscape and suggested that uninventoried methane sources were widely distributed and primarily of fossil origin.
Key Points
Atmospheric methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles
The majority of Los Angeles methane emissions are from fossil sources
Mobile laboratory approach can identify and apportion methane emissions regionally
We use historical and new atmospheric trace gas observations to refine the estimated source of methane (CH4) emitted into California’s South Coast Air Basin (the larger Los Angeles metropolitan ...region). Referenced to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CO emissions inventory, total CH4 emissions are 0.44 ± 0.15 Tg each year. To investigate the possible contribution of fossil fuel emissions, we use ambient air observations of methane (CH4), ethane (C2H6), and carbon monoxide (CO), together with measured C2H6 to CH4 enhancement ratios in the Los Angeles natural gas supply. The observed atmospheric C2H6 to CH4 ratio during the ARCTAS (2008) and CalNex (2010) aircraft campaigns is similar to the ratio of these gases in the natural gas supplied to the basin during both these campaigns. Thus, at the upper limit (assuming that the only major source of atmospheric C2H6 is fugitive emissions from the natural gas infrastructure) these data are consistent with the attribution of most (0.39 ± 0.15 Tg yr–1) of the excess CH4 in the basin to uncombusted losses from the natural gas system (approximately 2.5–6% of natural gas delivered to basin customers). However, there are other sources of C2H6 in the region. In particular, emissions of C2H6 (and CH4) from natural gas seeps as well as those associated with petroleum production, both of which are poorly known, will reduce the inferred contribution of the natural gas infrastructure to the total CH4 emissions, potentially significantly. This study highlights both the value and challenges associated with the use of ethane as a tracer for fugitive emissions from the natural gas production and distribution system.
We apply airborne measurements across three seasons (summer, winter and spring 2017-2018) in a multi-inversion framework to quantify methane emissions from the US Corn Belt and Upper Midwest, a key ...agricultural and wetland source region. Combing our seasonal results with prior fall values we find that wetlands are the largest regional methane source (32 %, 20 16-23 Gg/d), while livestock (enteric/manure; 25 %, 15 14-17 Gg/d) are the largest anthropogenic source. Natural gas/petroleum, waste/landfills, and coal mines collectively make up the remainder. Optimized fluxes improve model agreement with independent datasets within and beyond the study timeframe. Inversions reveal coherent and seasonally dependent spatial errors in the WetCHARTs ensemble mean wetland emissions, with an underestimate for the Prairie Pothole region but an overestimate for Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Wetland extent and emission temperature dependence have the largest influence on prediction accuracy; better representation of coupled soil temperature-hydrology effects is therefore needed. Our optimized regional livestock emissions agree well with the Gridded EPA estimates during spring (to within 7 %) but are ∼25 % higher during summer and winter. Spatial analysis further shows good top-down and bottom-up agreement for beef facilities (with mainly enteric emissions) but larger (∼30 %) seasonal discrepancies for dairies and hog farms (with >40 % manure emissions). Findings thus support bottom-up enteric emission estimates but suggest errors for manure; we propose that the latter reflects inadequate treatment of management factors including field application. Overall, our results confirm the importance of intensive animal agriculture for regional methane emissions, implying substantial mitigation opportunities through improved management.
Satellite observations of the total column dry-air CO2(XCO2) are expected to support the quantification and monitoring of fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions from urban areas. We evaluate the utility ...of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals to optimize whole-city emissions, using a Bayesian inversion system and high-resolution transport modeling. The uncertainties of constrained emissions related to transport model, satellite measurements, and local biospheric fluxes are quantified. For the first two uncertainty sources, we examine cities of different landscapes: “plume city” located in relatively flat terrain, represented by Riyadh and Cairo; “basin city” located in basin terrain, represented by Los Angeles (LA). The retrieved scaling factors of emissions and their uncertainties show prominent variabilities from track to track, due to the varying meteorological conditions and relative locations of the tracks transecting plumes. To explore the performance of multiple tracks in retrieving emissions, pseudo data experiments are carried out. The estimated least number of tracks required to constrain the total emissions for Riyadh (<10% uncertainty), Cairo (<10%), and LA (<5%) are 5, 8, and 7, respectively. Additionally, to evaluate the impact of biospheric fluxes on derivation of the ffXCO2 enhancements, we conduct simulations for Pearl River Delta metropolitan area. Significant fractions of local XCO2 enhancements associated with local biospheric XCO2 variations are shown, which potentially lead to biased estimates of ffCO2 emissions. We demonstrate that satellite measurements can be used to improve urban ffCO2 emissions with a sufficient amount of measurements and appropriate representations of the uncertainty components.
PDF
