Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane Turner, Alexander J.; Frankenberg, Christian; Kort, Eric A.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
02/2019, Letnik:
116, Številka:
8
Journal Article
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Atmospheric methane plays a major role in controlling climate, yet contemporary methane trends (1982–2017) have defied explanation with numerous, often conflicting, hypotheses proposed in the ...literature. Specifically, atmospheric observations of methane from 1982 to 2017 have exhibited periods of both increasing concentrations (from 1982 to 2000 and from 2007 to 2017) and stabilization (from 2000 to 2007). Explanations for the increases and stabilization have invoked changes in tropical wetlands, livestock, fossil fuels, biomass burning, and the methane sink. Contradictions in these hypotheses arise because our current observational network cannot unambiguously link recent methane variations to specific sources. This raises some fundamental questions: (i) What do we know about sources, sinks, and underlying processes driving observed trends in atmospheric methane? (ii) How will global methane respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions? And (iii), What future observations could help resolve changes in the methane budget? To address these questions, we discuss potential drivers of atmospheric methane abundances over the last four decades in light of various observational constraints as well as process-based knowledge. While uncertainties in the methane budget exist, they should not detract from the potential of methane emissions mitigation strategies. We show that net-zero cost emission reductions can lead to a declining atmospheric burden, but can take three decades to stabilize. Moving forward, we make recommendations for observations to better constrain contemporary trends in atmospheric methane and to provide mitigation support.
Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak‐prone major cities along the East Coast of the United ...States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end‐use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end‐use emissions, or some combination thereof.
Plain Language Summary
Recent efforts to quantify fugitive methane associated with the oil and gas sector, with a particular focus on production, have resulted in significant revisions upward of emission estimates. In comparison, however, there has been limited focus on urban methane emissions. Given the volume of gas distributed and used in cities, urban losses can impact national‐level emissions. In this study we use aircraft observations of methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ethane to determine characteristic correlation slopes, enabling quantification of urban methane emissions and attribution to natural gas. We sample nearly 12% of the U.S. population and 4 of the 10 most populous cities, focusing on older, leak‐prone urban centers. Emission estimates are more than twice the total in the U.S. EPA inventory for these regions and are predominantly attributed to fugitive natural gas losses. Current estimates for methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain appear to require revision upward, in part possibly by including end‐use emissions, to account for these urban losses.
Key Points
Aircraft observations downwind of six major cities along the U.S. East Coast are used to estimate urban methane emissions
Observed urban methane estimates are about twice that reported in the Gridded EPA inventory
Methane emissions from natural gas (including end use) in five cities combined exceeds nationwide emissions estimate from local distribution
Urban areas are currently responsible for ∼70% of the global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and rapid ongoing global urbanization is increasing the number and size of cities. Thus, ...understanding city-scale CO2 emissions and how they vary between cities with different urban densities is a critical task. While the relationship between CO2 emissions and population density has been explored widely in prior studies, their conclusions were sensitive to inconsistent definitions of urban boundaries and the reliance upon CO2 emission inventories that implicitly assumed population relationships. Here we provide the first independent estimates of direct per capita CO2 emissions (Epc) from spaceborne atmospheric CO2 measurements from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) for a total 20 cities across multiple continents. The analysis accounts for the influence of meteorology on the satellite observations with an atmospheric model. The resultant upwind source region sampled by the satellite serves as an objective urban extent for aggregating emissions and population densities. Thus, we are able to detect emission 'hotspots' on a per capita basis from a few cities, subject to sampling restrictions from OCO-2. Our results suggest that Epc declines as population densities increase, albeit the decrease in Epc is partially limited by the positive correlation between Epc and per capita gross domestic product. As additional CO2-observing satellites are launched in the coming years, our space-based approach to understanding CO2 emissions from cities has significant potential in tracking and evaluating the future trajectory of urban growth and informing the effects of carbon reduction plans.
Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated by using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ...~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 teragrams per year, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO
from natural gas combustion. Substantial emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.
This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial ...datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane–propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA’s recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25–30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.
Urban areas now house more than half the world's population, and are estimated to contribute over 70% of global energy‐related CO2emissions. Many cities have emission reduction policies in place, but ...lack objective, observation‐based methods for verifying their outcomes. Here we demonstrate the potential of satellite‐borne instruments to provide accurate global monitoring of megacity CO2 emissions using GOSAT observations of column averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2) collected over Los Angeles and Mumbai. By differencing observations over the megacity with those in nearby background, we observe robust, statistically significant XCO2 enhancements of 3.2 ± 1.5 ppm for Los Angeles and 2.4 ± 1.2 ppm for Mumbai, and find these enhancements can be exploited to track anthropogenic emission trends over time. We estimate that XCO2 changes as small as 0.7 ppm in Los Angeles, corresponding to a 22% change in emissions, could be detected with GOSAT at the 95% confidence level.
Key Points
Existing satellite observations can detect megacity CO2 enhancements
These observations can be used to track anthropogenic emissions trends in time
We use TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements to identify cropland soil nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) emissions at daily to seasonal scales in ...the U.S. Southern Mississippi River Valley. Evaluating 1.5 years of TROPOMI observations with a box model, we observe seasonality in local NOx enhancements and estimate maximum cropland soil NOx emissions (15–34 ng N m−2 s−1) early in growing season (May–June). We observe soil NOx pulsing in response to daily decreases in volumetric soil moisture (VSM) as measured by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Daily NO2 enhancements reach up to 0.8 × 1015 molecules cm−2 4–8 days after precipitation when VSM decreases to ~30%, reflecting emissions behavior distinct from previously defined soil NOx pulse events. This demonstrates that TROPOMI NO2 observations, combined with observations of underlying process controls (e.g., soil moisture), can constrain soil NOx processes from space.
Plain Language Summary
Soils are a known source of atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), a pollutant that contributes to poor air quality. In cropland regions, where nitrogen‐rich fertilizers are applied to soils, NOx emissions can be significantly enhanced. We use satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) to quantify the soil‐driven contribution to the amount of NOx in the atmosphere in a cropland region in Mississippi, USA. At the daily level, we use TROPOMI measurements together with soil moisture observations from the SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) satellite to show that soil moisture plays an important role in regulating the amount of NOx that cropland soils release. At the seasonal level, we see the largest NOx contribution from soils toward the beginning of the growing season (May–June).
Key Points
Daily TROPOMI data provide new opportunities to observe regional cropland NOx emissions from space
Soil NOx pulsing is identified throughout the growing season with a NOx maximum observed when soils dry to ~30% volumetric soil moisture
Cropland NOx emissions peak at the onset of the growing season as determined by TROPOMI NO2 enhancements and a box model framework
Up in the air
Understanding ocean-atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO
2
) fluxes in the Southern Ocean is necessary for quantifying the global CO
2
budget, but measurements in the harsh conditions there ...make collecting good data difficult, so a quantitative picture still is out of reach. Long
et al
. present measurements of atmospheric CO
2
concentrations made by aircraft and show that the annual net flux of carbon into the ocean south of 45°S is large, with stronger summertime uptake and less wintertime outgassing than other recent observations have indicated. —HJS
Aircraft observations show that the Southern Ocean region is a strong carbon sink.
The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO
2
), yet estimates of air-sea CO
2
flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO
2
exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO
2
gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO
2
gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO
2
(
P
co
2
)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations.
Satellites are increasingly seen as a tool for identifying large greenhouse gas point sources for mitigation, but independent verification of satellite performance is needed for acceptance and use by ...policy makers and stakeholders. We conduct to our knowledge the first single-blind controlled methane release testing of satellite-based methane emissions detection and quantification, with five independent teams analyzing data from one to five satellites each for this desert-based test. Teams correctly identified 71% of all emissions, ranging from 0.20 0.19, 0.21 metric tons per hour (t/h) to 7.2 6.8, 7.6 t/h. Three-quarters (75%) of quantified estimates fell within ± 50% of the metered value, comparable to airplane-based remote sensing technologies. The relatively wide-area Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellites detected emissions as low as 1.4 1.3, 1.5, 95% confidence interval t/h, while GHGSat's targeted system quantified a 0.20 0.19, 0.21 t/h emission to within 13%. While the fraction of global methane emissions detectable by satellite remains unknown, we estimate that satellite networks could see 19-89% of total oil and natural gas system emissions detected in a recent survey of a high-emitting region.
Urban areas are increasingly recognized as an important source of methane (CH4), but we have limited seasonally resolved observations of these regions. In this study, we quantify seasonal and annual ...urban CH4 emissions over the Baltimore, Maryland, and Washington, DC metropolitan regions. We use CH4 atmospheric observations from four tall tower stations and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to simulate CH4 concentrations at these stations. We directly compare these simulations with observations and use a geostatistical inversion method to determine optimal emissions to match our observations. We use observations spanning four seasons and employ an ensemble approach considering multiple meteorological representations, emission inventories, and upwind CH4 values. Forward simulations in winter, spring, and fall underestimate observed atmospheric CH4 while in summer, simulations overestimate observations because of excess modeled wetland emissions. With ensemble geostatistical inversions, the optimized annual emissions in DC/Baltimore are 39 ± 9 Gg/month (1 δ), 2.0 ± 0.4 times higher than the ensemble mean of bottom-up emission inventories. We find a modest seasonal variability of urban CH4 emissions not captured in current inventories, with optimized summer emissions ∼41% lower than winter, broadly consistent with expectations if emissions are dominated by fugitive natural gas sources that correlate with natural gas usage.
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