Aims. Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both ...measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we aim at improving the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. Methods. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth’s atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated archeo- and paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. Results. A new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, referred to as GMAG.9k, is built for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the last nine millennia, quantified in terms of sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed. A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is also provided. Conclusions. The primary components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA method, are different for the series that are based on 14C and 10Be. This shows that these primary components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system and not to the Sun. These components have therefore been removed from the reconstructed series. In contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are found to be dominated by a common ≈2400-year quasi-periodicity, the so-called Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with clustering near lows and highs of the Hallstatt cycle, respectively.
Aims. The solar activity in the past millennia can only be reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide proxy records in terrestrial archives. However, because of the diversity of the proxy archives, ...it is difficult to build a homogeneous reconstruction. All previous studies were based on individual, sometimes statistically averaged, proxy datasets. Here we aim to provide a new consistent multi-proxy reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 9000 yr, using all available long-span datasets of 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. Methods. A new method, based on a Bayesian approach, was applied for the first time to solar activity reconstruction. A Monte Carlo search (using the χ2 statistic) for the most probable value of the modulation potential was performed to match data from different datasets for a given time. This provides a straightforward estimate of the related uncertainties. We used six 10Be series of different lengths (from 500–10 000 yr) from Greenland and Antarctica, and the global 14C production series. The 10Be series were resampled to match wiggles related to the grand minima in the 14C reference dataset. The stability of the long data series was tested. Results. The Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) and the Antarctic EDML (EPICA Dronning Maud Land) 10Be series diverge from each other during the second half of the Holocene, while the 14C series lies in between them. A likely reason for the discrepancy is the insufficiently precise beryllium transport and deposition model for Greenland, which leads to an undercorrection of the GRIP series for the geomagnetic shielding effect. A slow 6–7 millennia variability with lows at ca. 5500 BC and 1500 AD in the long-term evolution of solar activity is found. Two components of solar activity can be statistically distinguished: the main component, corresponding to the “normal” moderate level, and a component corresponding to grand minima. A possible existence of a component representing grand maxima is indicated, but it cannot be separated from the main component in a statistically significant manner. Conclusions. A new consistent reconstruction of solar activity over the last nine millennia is presented with the most probable values of decadal sunspot numbers and their realistic uncertainties. Independent components of solar activity corresponding to the main moderate activity and the grand-minimum state are identified; they may be related to different operation modes of the dynamo.
Aims.
Fluences of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are not easy to evaluate, especially for high-energy events (i.e. ground-level enhancements, GLEs). Earlier estimates of event-integrated SEP ...fluences for GLEs were based on partly outdated assumptions and data, and they required revisions. Here, we present the results of a full revision of the spectral fluences for most major SEP events (GLEs) for the period from 1956 to 2017 using updated low-energy flux estimates along with greatly revisited high-energy flux data and applying the newly invented reconstruction method including an improved neutron-monitor yield function.
Methods.
Low- and high-energy parts of the SEP fluence were estimated using a revised space-borne/ionospheric data and ground-based neutron monitors, respectively. The measured data were fitted by the modified Band function spectral shape. The best-fit parameters and their uncertainties were assessed using a direct Monte Carlo method.
Results.
A full reconstruction of the event-integrated spectral fluences was performed in the energy range above 30 MeV, parametrised and tabulated for easy use along with estimates of the 68% confidence intervals.
Conclusions.
This forms a solid basis for more precise studies of the physics of solar eruptive events and the transport of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium, as well as the related applications.
Aims. Miyake et al. (2012, Nature, 486, 240, henceforth M12) recently reported, based on 14C data, an extreme cosmic event in about AD775. Using a simple model, M12 claimed that the event was too ...strong to be caused by a solar flare within the standard theory. This implied a new paradigm of either an impossibly strong solar flare or a very strong cosmic ray event of unknown origin that occurred around AD775. However, as we show, the strength of the event was significantly overestimated by M12. Several subsequent works have attempted to find a possible exotic source for such an event, including a giant cometary impact upon the Sun or a gamma-ray burst, but they are all based on incorrect estimates by M12. We revisit this event with analysis of new datasets and consistent theoretical modelling. Methods. We verified the experimental result for the AD775 cosmic ray event using independent datasets including 10Be series and newly measured 14C annual data. We surveyed available historical chronicles for astronomical observations for the period around the AD770s to identify potential sightings of aurorae borealis and supernovae. We interpreted the 14C measurements using an appropriate carbon cycle model. Results. We show that: (1) The reality of the AD775 event is confirmed by new measurements of 14C in German oak; (2) by using an inappropriate carbon cycle model, M12 strongly overestimated the event’s strength; (3) the revised magnitude of the event (the global 14C production Q = (1.1 − 1.5) × 108 atoms/cm2) is consistent with different independent datasets (14C, 10Be, 36Cl) and can be associated with a strong, but not inexplicably strong, solar energetic particle event (or a sequence of events), and provides the first definite evidence for an event of this magnitude (the fluence >30 MeV was about 4.5 × 1010 cm-2) in multiple datasets; (4) this interpretation is in agreement with increased auroral activity identified in historical chronicles. Conclusions. The results point to the likely solar origin of the event, which is now identified as the greatest solar event on a multi-millennial time scale, placing a strong observational constraint on the theory of explosive energy releases on the Sun and cool stars.
Aims.Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia, we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set new observational constraints on ...long-term solar and stellar dynamo models. Methods.We present an updated reconstruction of sunspot number over multiple millennia, from 14C data by means of a physics-based model, using an updated model of the evolution of the solar open magnetic flux. A list of grand minima and maxima of solar activity is presented for the Holocene (since 9500 BC) and the statistics of both the length of individual events as well as the waiting time between them are analyzed. Results.The occurrence of grand minima/maxima is driven not by long-term cyclic variability, but by a stochastic/chaotic process. The waiting time distribution of the occurrence of grand minima/maxima deviates from an exponential distribution, implying that these events tend to cluster together with long event-free periods between the clusters. Two different types of grand minima are observed: short (30–90 years) minima of Maunder type and long (>110 years) minima of Spörer type, implying that a deterministic behaviour of the dynamo during a grand minimum defines its length. The duration of grand maxima follows an exponential distribution, suggesting that the duration of a grand maximum is determined by a random process. Conclusions.These results set new observational constraints upon the long-term behaviour of the solar dynamo.
We investigate the combined effects of solar energetic particle propagation, parallel and perpendicular to the large-scale magnetic field in the solar wind. Numerical methods employing stochastic ...differential equations are used incorporating pitch-angle diffusion, focusing, and pitch-angle-dependent diffusion perpendicular to the magnetic field. We compute spatial distributions of approx100 keV electrons and 4 MeV protons in the inner heliosphere, assuming impulsive injection near the Sun over a limited range of solar longitude and latitude. In addition, spatial distributions and intensity-time profiles for various combinations of the parallel and perpendicular mean free path, with different assumptions for the dependence of lambda{sub perpendicular} on the radial distance and pitch angle, are investigated. We find that realistic results can be obtained when we assume that the perpendicular mean free path scales in the inner heliosphere with the gyroradius of the particles. Step-like decreases of particle intensities as frequently observed in impulsive events at 1 AU can be reproduced for a ratio of lambda{sub perpendicular}/lambda{sub ||} a few times 10{sup -5}.
Although sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-nineteenth century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the “calibration” of the ...visual acuity of individual observers in the past. A daisy-chain regression method is usually applied to inter-calibrate the observers, which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method for calibrating the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900 – 1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds
S
S
defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than
S
S
and report all the groups larger than
S
S
. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method, we construct a correction matrix for each observer from the reference data set. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot-group records reported by the observers for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series is provided as supplementary material in electronic form and displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton Minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg Minimum), as well as the Modern Grand Maximum of activity in the second half of the twentieth century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. We show that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in some reconstructions.
Aims. Sunspot number series are composed from observations of hundreds of different observers that require careful normalization to standard conditions. Here we present a new normalized series of the ...number of sunspot groups for the period 1749–1996. Methods. The reconstruction is based on the active day fraction (ADF) method, which is slightly updated with respect to previous works, and a revised database of sunspot group observations. Results. Stability of some key solar observers has been evaluated against the composite series. The Royal Greenwich Observatory dataset appears relatively stable since the 1890s but is approximately 10% too low before that. A declining trend of 10–15% in the quality of Wolfer’s observations is found between the 1880s and 1920s, suggesting that using him as the reference observer may lead to additional uncertainties. Wolf (small telescope) appears relatively stable between the 1860s and 1890s, without any obvious trend. The new reconstruction reflects the centennial variability of solar activity as evaluated using the singular spectrum analysis method. It depicts a highly significant feature of the modern grand maximum of solar activity in the second half of the 20th century, being a factor 1.33–1.77 higher than during the 18 and 19th centuries. Conclusions. The new series of the sunspot group numbers with monthly and annual resolution is provided forming a basis for new studies of the solar variability and solar dynamo for the last 250 yr.
Aims.
Continuous measurements of ground-based neutron monitors (NMs) form the main data source for studying high-energy high-intensity solar energetic particle (SEP) events that are called ...ground-level enhancements (GLEs). All available data are collected in the International GLE Database (IGLED), which provides formal NM count-rate increases above the constant pre-increase level which is due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR). This data set is used to reconstruct the energy spectra of GLE events. However, the assumption of a constant GCR background level throughout GLE events is often invalid. Here we thoroughly revise the IGLED and provide a data set of detrended NM count-rate increases that accounts for the variable GCR background.
Methods.
The formal GLE count-rate increases were corrected for the variable GCR background, which may vary significantly during GLE events. The corresponding integral omnidirectional fluences of SEPs were reconstructed for all GLEs with sufficient strength from the detrended data using the effective rigidity method.
Results.
The database of the detrended NM count rate is revised for GLE events since 1956. Integral omnidirectional fluences were estimated for 58 GLE events and parametrised for 52 sufficiently strong events using the modified Ellison-Ramaty spectral shape.
Conclusions.
The IGLED was revised to account for the variable GCR background. Integral omnidirectional fluences reconstructed for most of GLE events were added to IGLED. This forms the basis for more precise studies of parameters of SEP events and thus for solar and space physics.
A ground‐based neutron monitor (NM) is a standard tool to measure cosmic ray (CR) variability near Earth, and it is crucially important to know its yield function for primary CRs. Although there are ...several earlier theoretically calculated yield functions, none of them agrees with experimental data of latitude surveys of sea‐level NMs, thus suggesting for an inconsistency. A newly computed yield function of the standard sea‐level 6NM64 NM is presented here separately for primary CR protons and α‐particles, the latter representing also heavier species of CRs. The computations have been done using the GEANT‐4 PLANETOCOSMICS Monte‐Carlo tool and a realistic curved atmospheric model. For the first time, an effect of the geometrical correction of the NM effective area, related to the finite lateral expansion of the CR induced atmospheric cascade, is considered, which was neglected in the previous studies. This correction slightly enhances the relative impact of higher‐energy CRs (energy above 5–10 GeV/nucleon) in NM count rate. The new computation finally resolves the long‐standing problem of disagreement between the theoretically calculated spatial variability of CRs over the globe and experimental latitude surveys. The newly calculated yield function, corrected for this geometrical factor, appears fully consistent with the experimental latitude surveys of NMs performed during three consecutive solar minima in 1976–1977, 1986–1987, and 1996–1997. Thus, we provide a new yield function of the standard sea‐level NM 6NM64 that is validated against experimental data.
Key Points
A new calculation of the neutron monitor yield function is presented.
Effect of enhanced effective area of NM is considered for the first time.
The discrepancy between observed and modelled latitude surveys is resolved.
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