On the basis of extensive studies in Joslin Clinic patients over 25 years, we propose a new model of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes. In this model, the predominant clinical feature of both ...early and late stages of diabetic nephropathy is progressive renal decline, not albuminuria. Progressive renal decline (estimated glomerular filtration rate loss >3.5 mL/min/year) is a unidirectional process that develops while patients have normal renal function. It progresses at an almost steady rate until end-stage renal disease is reached, albeit at widely differing rates among individuals. Progressive renal decline precedes the onset of microalbuminuria, and as it continues, it increases the risk of proteinuria. Therefore, study groups ascertained for microalbuminuria/proteinuria are enriched for patients with renal decline (decliners). We found prevalences of decliners in 10%, 32%, and 50% of patients with normoalbuminuria, microalbuminuria, and proteinuria, respectively. Whether the initial lesion of progressive renal decline is in the glomerulus, tubule, interstitium, or vasculature is unknown. Similarly unclear are the initiating mechanism and the driver of progression. No animal model mimics progressive renal decline, so etiological studies must be conducted in humans with diabetes. Prospective studies searching for biomarkers predictive of the onset and rate of progression of renal decline have already yielded positive findings that will help to develop not only accurate methods for early diagnosis but also new therapeutic approaches. Detecting in advance which patients will have rapid, moderate, or minimal rates of progression to end-stage renal disease will be the foundation for developing personalized methods of prevention and treatment of progressive renal decline in type 1 diabetes.
A new model of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes emerged from our studies of Joslin Clinic patients. The dominant feature is progressive renal decline, not albuminuria. This decline is a ...unidirectional process commencing while patients have normal renal function and, in the majority, progressing steadily (linearly) to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). While an individual’s rate of renal decline is constant, the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope varies widely among individuals from –72 to –3.0 ml/min/year. Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines define rapid progression as rate of eGFR declines > 5 ml/min/year, a value exceeded by 80% of patients in Joslin’s type 1 diabetes ESRD cohort. The extraordinary range of slopes within the rapid progression category prompted us to partition it into “very fast,” “fast” and “moderate” decline. We showed, for the first time, that very fast and fast decline from normal eGFR to ESRD within 2 to 10 years constitutes 50% of the Joslin cohort. In this review we present data about frequency of fast decliners in both diabetes types, survey some mechanisms underlying fast renal decline, discuss methods of identifying patients at risk and comment on the need for effective therapeutic interventions. Whether the initiating mechanism of fast renal decline affects glomerulus, tubule, interstitium or vasculature is unknown. Since no animal model mimics progressive renal decline, studies in humans are needed. Prospective studies searching for markers predictive of the rate of renal decline yield findings that may make detection of fast decliners feasible. Identifying such patients will be the foundation for developing effective individualized methods to prevent or delay onset of ESRD in diabetes.
OBJECTIVE Progressive decrease in the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), or renal decline, in type 1 diabetes (T1D) is observed in patients with macroalbuminuria. However, it is unknown whether this ...decline begins during microalbuminuria (MA) or normoalbuminuria (NA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The study group (second Joslin Kidney Study) comprises patients with T1D and NA (n = 286) or MA (n = 248) who were followed for 4-10 years (median 8 years). Serial measurements (median 6, range 3-16) of serum creatinine and cystatin C were used jointly to estimate GFR (eGFRcr-cys) and assess its trajectories during follow-up. RESULTS Renal decline (progressive eGFRcr-cys loss of at least 3.3% per year) occurred in 10% of the NA and 35% of the MA (P < 0.001). In both groups, the strongest determinants of renal decline were baseline serum concentrations of uric acid (P < 0.001) and tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 or 2 (TNFR-1 or -2, P < 0.001). Other significant risk factors included baseline HbA1c, age/diabetes duration, and systolic blood pressure. Relative impacts of these determinants were similar in NA and MA. Renal decline was not associated with sex or baseline serum concentration of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, VCAM, ICAM, Fas, or FasL. CONCLUSIONS Renal decline in T1D begins during NA and it is determined by multiple factors, similar to MA. Thus, this early decline is the primary disease process leading to impaired renal function in T1D. Changes in albumin excretion rate, such as the onset of MA or its progression to macroalbuminuria, are either caused by or develop in parallel to the early renal decline.
Levels of proinflammatory cytokines associate with risk for developing type 2 diabetes but whether chronic inflammation contributes to the development of diabetic complications, such as ESRD, is ...unknown. In the 1990s, we recruited 410 patients with type 2 diabetes for studies of diabetic nephropathy and recorded their characteristics at enrollment. During 12 years of follow-up, 59 patients developed ESRD (17 per 1000 patient-years) and 84 patients died without ESRD (24 per 1000 patient-years). Plasma markers of systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and the TNF pathway were measured in the study entry samples. Of the examined markers, only TNF receptors 1 and 2 (TNFR1 and TNFR2) associated with risk for ESRD. These two markers were highly correlated, but ESRD associated more strongly with TNFR1. The cumulative incidence of ESRD for patients in the highest TNFR1 quartile was 54% after 12 years but only 3% for the other quartiles (P<0.001). In Cox proportional hazard analyses, TNFR1 predicted risk for ESRD even after adjustment for clinical covariates such as urinary albumin excretion. Plasma concentration of TNFR1 outperformed all tested clinical variables with regard to predicting ESRD. Concentrations of TNFRs moderately associated with death unrelated to ESRD. In conclusion, elevated concentrations of circulating TNFRs in patients with type 2 diabetes at baseline are very strong predictors of the subsequent progression to ESRD in subjects with and without proteinuria.
Currently, no blood biomarker that specifically indicates injury to the proximal tubule of the kidney has been identified. Kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) is highly upregulated in proximal tubular ...cells following kidney injury. The ectodomain of KIM-1 is shed into the lumen, and serves as a urinary biomarker of kidney injury. We report that shed KIM-1 also serves as a blood biomarker of kidney injury. Sensitive assays to measure plasma and serum KIM-1 in mice, rats, and humans were developed and validated in the current study. Plasma KIM-1 levels increased with increasing periods of ischemia (10, 20, or 30 minutes) in mice, as early as 3 hours after reperfusion; after unilateral ureteral obstruction (day 7) in mice; and after gentamicin treatment (50 or 200 mg/kg for 10 days) in rats. In humans, plasma KIM-1 levels were higher in patients with AKI than in healthy controls or post-cardiac surgery patients without AKI (area under the curve, 0.96). In patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass, plasma KIM-1 levels increased within 2 days after surgery only in patients who developed AKI (P<0.01). Blood KIM-1 levels were also elevated in patients with CKD of varous etiologies. In a cohort of patients with type 1 diabetes and proteinuria, serum KIM-1 level at baseline strongly predicted rate of eGFR loss and risk of ESRD during 5-15 years of follow-up, after adjustment for baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, eGFR, and Hb1Ac. These results identify KIM-1 as a blood biomarker that specifically reflects acute and chronic kidney injury.
We investigated whether circulating TGF-β1-regulated miRNAs detectable in plasma are associated with the risk of rapid progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a cohort of proteinuric ...patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and normal eGFR. Plasma specimens obtained at entry to the study were examined in two prospective subgroups that were followed for 7-20 years (rapid progressors and nonprogressors), as well as a reference panel of normoalbuminuric T1D patients. Of the five miRNAs examined in this study, let-7c-5p and miR-29a-3p were significantly associated with protection against rapid progression and let-7b-5p and miR-21-5p were significantly associated with the increased risk of ESRD. In logistic analysis, controlling for HbA1c and other covariates, let-7c-5p and miR-29a-3p were associated with more than a 50% reduction in the risk of rapid progression (P ≤ 0.001), while let-7b-5p and miR-21-5p were associated with a >2.5-fold increase in the risk of ESRD (P ≤ 0.005). This study is the first prospective study to demonstrate that circulating TGF-β1-regulated miRNAs are deregulated early in T1D patients who are at risk for rapid progression to ESRD.
Elevated plasma concentrations of TNF receptors 1 and 2 (TNFR1 and TNFR2) predict development of ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes without proteinuria, suggesting these markers may contribute to ...the pathogenesis of renal decline. We investigated whether circulating markers of the TNF pathway determine GFR loss among patients with type 1 diabetes. We followed two cohorts comprising 628 patients with type 1 diabetes, normal renal function, and no proteinuria. Over 12 years, 69 patients developed estimated GFR less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (16 per 1000 person-years). Concentrations of TNFR1 and TNFR2 were strongly associated with risk for early renal decline. Renal decline was associated only modestly with total TNFα concentration and appeared unrelated to free TNFα. The cumulative incidence of estimated GFR less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for patients in the highest TNFR2 quartile was 60% after 12 years compared with 5%-19% in the remaining quartiles. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, patients with TNFR2 values in the highest quartile were threefold more likely to experience renal decline than patients in the other quartiles (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-5.5). The risk associated with high TNFR1 values was slightly less than that associated with high TNFR2 values. TNFR levels were unrelated to baseline free TNFα level and remained stable over long periods within an individual. In conclusion, early GFR loss in patients with type 1 diabetes without proteinuria is strongly associated with circulating TNF receptor levels but not TNFα levels (free or total).
The patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 1 diabetes has not been conclusively described. Decline could be linearly ...progressive to ESRD but with a variable rate. Conversely, decline may be linear but interrupted by periods of plateaus or improvements.
This observational study included 364 patients with type 1 diabetes attending the Joslin Clinic who developed ESRD between 1991 and 2013. We retrieved serum creatinine measurements from clinic visits or research examinations up to 24 years (median 6.7 years) preceding the onset of ESRD. Using serial measurements of serum creatinine to estimate renal function (eGFR), we used regression-based spline methods and a data smoothing approach to characterize individual trajectories of eGFR over time for the 257 patients with five or more data points.
The rate of eGFR decline per year ranged widely, from -72 to -2 mL/min/1.73 m
(median -8.5). The trajectories, as characterized with linear regression-based spline models, were linear or nearly so for 87% of patients, accelerating for 6%, and decelerating for 7%. Smoothed trajectories evaluated by a Bayesian approach did not significantly depart from a linear fit in 76%.
The decline of eGFR in type 1 diabetes is predominantly linear. Deviations from linearity are small, with little effect on the expected time of ESRD. A single disease process most likely underlies renal decline from its initiation and continues with the same intensity to ESRD. Linearity of renal decline suggests using slope reduction as the measure of effectiveness of interventions to postpone ESRD.
Here we studied plasma metabolomic profiles as determinants of progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This nested case–control study evaluated 40 cases ...who progressed to ESRD during 8–12 years of follow-up and 40 controls who remained alive without ESRD from the Joslin Kidney Study cohort. Controls were matched with cases for baseline clinical characteristics, although controls had slightly higher eGFR and lower levels of urinary albumin excretion than cases. Plasma metabolites at baseline were measured by mass spectrometry–based global metabolomic profiling. Of the named metabolites in the library, 262 were detected in at least 80% of the study patients. The metabolomic platform recognized 78 metabolites previously reported to be elevated in ESRD (uremic solutes). Sixteen were already elevated in the baseline plasma of our cases years before ESRD developed. Other uremic solutes were either not different or not commonly detectable. Essential amino acids and their derivatives were significantly depleted in the cases, whereas certain amino acid–derived acylcarnitines were increased. All findings remained statistically significant after adjustment for differences between study groups in albumin excretion rate, eGFR, or HbA1c. Uremic solute differences were confirmed by quantitative measurements. Thus, abnormal plasma concentrations of putative uremic solutes and essential amino acids either contribute to progression to ESRD or are a manifestation of an early stage(s) of the disease process that leads to ESRD in T2D.
This study aimed to establish the time of initiation and the determinants of renal function decline in type 1 diabetes. Until now, such decline has been assumed to be a late-occurring event ...associated with proteinuria. A total of 267 patients with normoalbuminuria and 301 patients with microalbuminuria were followed for 8 to 12 yr. Linear trends (slopes) in GFR were estimated by serial measurement of serum cystatin C. Cases of early renal function decline were defined by loss in cystatin C GFR that exceeded -3.3%/yr, a threshold that corresponds to the 2.5th percentile of the distribution of GFR slopes in an independent nondiabetic normotensive population. Cases of early renal function decline occurred in 9% (mean slope -4.4; range -5.9 to -3.3%/yr) of the normoalbuminuria group and 31% (mean slope -7.1; range -23.8 to -3.3%/yr) of the microalbuminuria group (P < 0.001). Risk for early renal function decline depended on whether microalbuminuria regressed, remained stable, or progressed, rising from 16 to 32 and 68%, respectively (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, risk for decline was higher after age 35 yr or when glycosylated hemoglobin exceeded 9% but did not vary with diabetes duration, smoking, BP, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor treatment. Contrary to the existing paradigm of diabetic nephropathy, progressive renal function decline in type 1 diabetes is an early event that occurs in a large proportion of patients with microalbuminuria. Together with testing for microalbuminuria, clinical protocols using cystatin C to diagnose early renal function decline and track response to therapeutic interventions should be developed.
PDF
